Outlook for the Global Dissolving Pulp Market
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1 Outlook for the Global Dissolving Pulp Market Latin American Conference August 2016 Rod Young Chief Economic Advisor Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
2 Overview World demand is continuing to grow But at a slower pace Due to more competition with cotton for viscose China will still generate most of the growth Investment has slowed significantly Lower prices and reduced rate of demand growth New capacity will be focused on low cost regions Viscose pulp prices moving upward Supported by high cotton linter prices Hi alpha pulp prices continue their slide in 2016 Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 2
3 World Dissolving Pulp Demand Million Tonnes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 3
4 Viscose Staple Fiber Usage Limited by Big Drop in Cotton Prices VSF prices now higher than cotton in all markets Even in China where cotton prices have collapsed Cotton inventories shrinking but still massive Underlying growth in textile fiber market helping Viscose pulp usage to increase 5% annually Hi alpha (specialty) uses currently weak Due to problems in acetate market Drop in Chinese cigarette consumption Ethers should rebound along with general economies Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 4
5 World Dissolving Pulp Usage by Major End Use Million Tonnes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5
6 China Will Continue to Generate the Majority of Dissolving Pulp Demand China will account for 60% of world growth Dominance in textile fiber market Lower cotton and polyester prices are limiting factors Increasing production of acetates and ethers Other Asian countries will account 30% of world growth Led by India Cotton pricing will be major determinant Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 6
7 Dissolving Pulp Demand by Major World Region Million Tonnes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 7
8 Import Share of Demand Stabilizing Even though demand growth still focused on countries with limited fiber availability Dissolving pulp production is fiber intensive But is also a higher valued product Mills based on imported fiber could be alternative Especially in China Supported by Chinese tariffs Better option is distance integration Ownership of mills in low cost regions Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8
9 Dissolving Pulp Imports by Major Region/Country Million Tonnes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 9
10 Investment in New Capacity Has Slowed Sharply Following the surge in dissolving pulp expansions during that period Adding 50% to world capacity Capacity actually dropped in 2015 Declining pulp prices and profitability Shift to paper grade pulp Closures of Chinese cotton linter pulp mills Capacity expansion accelerating in 2016 Shift back to viscose pulp More conversions in China and Indonesia Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 10
11 World Dissolving Wood Pulp Capacity Expansion Thousand Tonnes Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 11
12 Global Operating Rates Stabilizing Viscose pulp operating rates jumped in In response to sharp slowdown in investment Will slip again in As capacity expansion accelerates Hi alpha pulp operating rates slumped in Surge of investment in new capacity Weak acetate pulp demand Operating rates will improve modestly in As demand accelerates, especially in ethers Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 12
13 World Operating Rates Hi-Alpha Viscose Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13
14 Viscose Pulp Prices Moving Upward Main support is high cotton linter prices Closures of Chinese cotton linter pulp capacity Slowdown of investment also helping No support from paper grade pulp prices Impact of anti dumping duties Near term pricing dependent on several factors Amount of new capacity hitting the market Path of cotton linter pricing Path of paper grade pulp pricing Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 14
15 Chinese Textile Fiber Prices US Dollars per Tonne Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 15
16 Hi Alpha Pulp Prices Still Declining Drop in 2016 makes third year in a row Weak demand, especially in acetate Viscose pulp producers moving up the food chain Legacy producers intent on keeping market share Historical average for hi alpha prices around $1,400/tonne Differential with viscose pulp about $400/tonne Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 16
17 Chinese Dissolving Pulp Prices US Dollars per Tonne Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 17
18 Risks to Forecast Demand Development of Chinese cotton inventories What is the longer term path for cotton pricing? Supply Will more Chinese cotton linter capacity close? How much capacity will be coming from low cost world regions? Prices Path of paper grade pulp prices Significant shift in world cost curve? Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 18
19 Thank you for your attention! For more information: World Dissolving Pulp Monitor Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 19
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