Global Energy Challenges and Opportuni6es Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy
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1 Global Energy Challenges and Opportuni6es Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy Carlos Pascual Special Envoy and Coordinator for Interna7onal Energy Affairs U.S. Department of State September 25, 2013
2 Five Revolu7ons Supply Transforma7on Emerging Market Demand Liquid Gas Clean Power Energy Access 2
3 U.S. Oil Import Dependence Oil Supply and Demand (Mb/d) Oil Imports 25 Consump6on 14 70% Other Onshore Alaska 2006 Imports = 60% Crude, other 2012 Imports = 40% Biofuels Tight Oil Offshore Crude, Onshore L48 Other Source and Notes: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook (October 2012). Figures for are projec7ons Volume (lea axis, Mb/d) Share of consump7on (right axis, %) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3
4 U.S. Natural Gas Supply by Source Dry gas produc7on billion cubic meters (bcm) History 34% 2011 Shale gas Projec7ons 400 Nonassociated 25% offshore Tight gas 22% 300 2% 7% Alaska 4% 200 7% Coalbed methane 6% 9% Nonassociated Associated with oil 6% 100 onshore 16% 5% 6% % Source: EIA, AE
5 Challenges to Oil Market Stability 120 Global Oil Produc7on by Country (Mb/d) Spare Capacity Global Produc6on Dozens of Others 100 Africa China 80 Russia Brazil Venezuela 60 Ecuador Mexico Canada 40 United States UAE 20 Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait 0 Iraq Iran Data source: EIA, IEO
6 World Energy Consump7on Forecast 900 Total Primary Energy Quadrillion Btu Total Non- OECD Total OECD United States China India Source: U.S. Energy Informa7on Administra7on, 2011 Interna7onal Energy Outlook 6
7 China Oil Imports Passing Through Major Chokepoints Source: NYU Center on Interna7onal Coopera7on 7
8 Global Gas Markets World LNG Es7mated April 2013 Landed and Hub Prices ($US/mmbtu) Produc6on (bcm) Russia Iran Turkmenistan Canada United States Norway Australia Qatar Lake Charles $3.22 Henry Hub $3.97 NBP $12.39 UK $10.00 Spain $14.40 Rio de Janeiro $16.08 Belgium $9.67 China $16.40 India $15.80 Japan and South Korea $16.80 Indonesia Nigeria Algeria La7n America Total Source: IEA, FERC, media and industry es7mates. Bahia Blanca $16.58 Reserves (bcm) Mozambique 2825 Tanzania 565 Israel 407 8
9 LNG Is Integra7ng Gas Markets Pipeline and LNG Trade as a Share of Global Gas Consump7on 25% 20% Annual growth rate : - Global gas consump7on 3% - Global gas trade 5% - LNG trade 9% Pipeline LNG 15% 10% 5% 0% Data source: BP Sta7s7cal Review 9
10 Europe Gas Trade Total European Demand (2011) 500 bcm/y Es6mated European Demand (2017) 561 bcm/y LNG Imports (2011) 68 bcm/y LNG Imports (2017) 74 bcm/y Pipeline Imports 199 bcm/y Pipeline Imports (2017) bcm/y Trinidad & Tobago Nigeria Current Pipelines Future Pipelines 10 Current LNG Terminals Future LNG Terminals Current LNG Imports Future LNG Imports
11 Selected Eastern Mediterranean/Eurasian Oil and Gas Infrastructure South Stream Botas or TANAP SCPX TAP Iraq- Turkey Pipeline Aphrodite (Cyprus) Gas Field Pipeline Exis7ng Shah Deniz Iraqi Pipeline System Leviathan (Israel) Tamar (Israel) Pipeline- Planned/ Under Construc7on Source: BP, South Stream, IEA, Economist 11
12 Global Power Sector Investments, Cumula7ve ( ) 32% 11% Power: $16.9 trillion 57% Genera7on Transmission Distribu7on Ø More than 40% of global investment in the power sector goes to transmission and distribu7on. Ø Nearly two- thirds of investment is in the non- OECD to meet growing demand. New Investment in Electricity Genera6on, ($ billion) OECD Non- OECD World Coal 451 1,157 1,608 Gas ,041 Oil Total Fossil 903 1,821 2,724 Total Nuclear Bio- energy Hydro 418 1,130 1,548 Wind 1, ,129 Solar PV ,259 Other* Total Renewable 2,874 3,144 6,018 TOTAL GENERATION 4,137 5,548 9,685 Source: IEA, WEO 2012, New Policies Scenario * Includes geothermal, concentrated solar, and marine 12
13 Growth in Chinese demand for coal driving global demand Source: BP Sta7s7cal Review
14 Gas Can Help Reduce Chinese GHG Emissions Source: Chandler, William; Wang, Yanjia; Gwin, Holly; Chen, Shiping, China Power, Benefits and Costs of the Strong, Smart Grid, ENTRI, May
15 Energy Impera7ves Retain Compe77veness Reduce Pollu7on Protect Energy Security Fuel Mix 15
16 Sharing Best Prac7ces Water Supply Management Fiscal Incentives Protecting Water Quality Sustainable Unconventional Gas Development Reducing Seismic Impact Overcoming Infrastructure Challenges Community Engagement 16
17 Natural Gas: Infrastructure and Policy Sources: EIA, IEA, Industry Sources 17
18 New African regions for oil and gas explora7on Oil African Oil Produc6on ( ) Gas West African Transform Margin Somalia/ Ethiopia Offshore Kenya million barrels per day Nigeria Libya Angola Algeria Other Africa Oil (billion bbl) Gas (Bcm) Reserves Algeria Angola Egypt Libya Mozambique Nigeria Tanzania Other Africa Uganda Offshore Tanzania Offshore Mozambique bcma African Natural Gas Produc6on ( ) Nigeria Libya Algeria Other Africa Source: EIA, IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, BP Sta7s7cal Review, Industry Sources 18
19 The World at Night New York State Population: 19.5 million Electricity Generation: ~40 Gigawatts Consumption per capita: 2,050 kwh Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) Population: 791 million Electricity Generation: ~40 Gigawatts Consumption per capita: 52 kwh Source: IEA Energy Poverty Excerpt from WEO
20 Investment for Access People 2.7 Billion (3% of total investment needed by 2030) Investment $1.5 Trillion 1.3 Billion 600 Million $48 Billion Source: IEA
21 Global Energy Challenges and Opportuni6es Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy Carlos Pascual Special Envoy and Coordinator for Interna7onal Energy Affairs U.S. Department of State September 25, 2013
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