Emerging Strategy in the UK Power Sector The Future of Energy Storage Technologies and Policy May, Nick Winser Executive Director UK

Transcription

1 Emerging Strategy in the UK Power Sector The Future of Energy Storage Technologies and Policy May, 2011 Nick Winser Executive Director UK

2 Where does our energy come from today? Elec ctricity (kg CO 2 / MWh) Annual Demand 499 (TWh) Gas CCGT Coal Nuclear Wind Renewable Interconnector Gas (kg CO 2 / MWh) ,008 UKCS Norway LNG Continent Oil (kg CO 2 / MWh) 247 Electricity Gas Oil UKCS Net imports data from DEFRA: 2

3 The need for change No renewable target Unilateral CO2 target of 20% 15% of energy from renewables 25% reduction in CO 2 37% reduction in CO 2 emissions vs 1990 emissions vs GW Low Carbon Generation 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions vs 1990 No renewable target 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions vs 1990 Electricity % of end use energy 20% (kgco 2 /MWh) 490 % of end use energy 22% (kgco 2 /MWh) 200 % of end use energy 25% (kgco 2 /MWh) 50 % of end use energy 55% (kgco 2 /MWh) ~15 Gas % of end use energy 32% % of end use energy 30% % of end use energy 28% % of end use energy 28% (kgco 2 /MWh) (kgco 2 /MWh) (kgco 2 /MWh) (kgco 2 /MWh) Oil % of end use energy 48% % of end use energy 48% % of end use energy 48% % of end use energy 17% (kgco 2 /MWh) (kgco2 /MWh) (kgco2 /MWh) (kgco2 /MWh) End use oil & gas excludes oil and gas used in power generation and excluding renewable heat and transport CO2 targets are consistent with CCC proposed 4 th Carbon Budget 3

4 The next 40 years in brief 2020 Generation mix overhaul Transmission is the focus investment & operation 2030 Distribution network capacity begins massive increase Demand increase driven by electric cars and heat pumps 2040 Carbon Capture & Storage the key technology Technology disruptors may emerge Consumer energy behaviour unrecognisable from today 2050 Completing the task of hitting 80% reduction in CO2 4

5 Now 2020 Generation & Transmission 5

6 EVs and heat pumps new, exciting, but less significant Heat pumps ~800,000 in homes Properties insulated for efficiency Hot-spots of demand will emerge Evening peak impact mid-decade ~1 3GW peak demand Time of use tariffs & smart metering enable peak management by 2020 Electric vehicles ~1,200,000 on the road ~1 3GW 13A plug-in home charge dominant Hot-spots of demand will emerge peak demand Evening peak impact mid-decade Time of use tariffs & smart metering enable peak management by 2020 Change (GW) (10) (20) (30) Generation Demand Gas CCS Interconnector Nuclear Wind Other renewable Gas Coal Nuclear Oil Electric cars Heat pumps 6

7 The transmission delivery challenge Historic power flows generally north south existing network interconnectors potential wind farm sites potential nuclear sites Future power flows vary in time and direction Norway 4.7bn of proposed reinforcements in Scotland, England & Wales identified by ENSG Ireland Netherlands Belgium France France 7

8 Where will our gas come from? Sources of gas change significantly Day to day variability could increase 100% 80% 8 % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010/ /20 0% Avg. Sep Avg. Dec UKCS Norway LNG Biogas Continent UKCS Norway LNG Biogas Continent Storage 8

9 Generation, generation, generation ~20% energy from electricity at ~200g CO 2 (e) / kwh Wind, gas dominant at ~30GW each ~11GW nuclear Some unabated coal Generation capacity mix ~10GW interconnection ~14GW embedded generation ~110GW ~40% from gas at ~185g CO 2 (e) / kwh LNG & continental imports increase UKCS & Norwegian gas decline ~40% from oil at ~245g CO 2 (e) / kwh Gas CCGT Coal CCS Nuclear Wind Renewable Interconnector CHP Other 9

10 Distribution & Demand 10

11 Distribution Growth Peak electricity demand in the home increases significantly Distribution networks will need to double their capacity ~2.5kW peak appliance demand for an average house in 2010 ~3kW charge for an electric car Household demand* ~3.5kW demand for a heat pump demand ~2.5kW ~4.7kW ~7kW ~9kW potential total demand Embedded generation ~8GW ~15GW ~20GW Network loading (kw/km) ~75 ~170 ~300 Network scale X2.3 X4.0 * After diversity average peak demand Network scale vs 2010 levels 11

12 Carbon Capture & Technology 12

13 To capture or not to capture? that is the question AMEC 2040 CCS scenario Carbon Capture & Storage the key technology Trials in the late 2010s / early 2020 s Projects in planning and development in the 2020s Large scale deployment in the 2030s Other developments Replanting of wind generation ~10m additional electric vehicles ~6m additional heat pumps Bio-methane injection common-place Norwegian gas supplies near zero Disruptive technology emerges? 13

14 Consumer & Completion 14

15 Consumer behaviour key to a low carbon energy future Homes and appliances will be smarter Consumers will flex their energy use in response to price signals Price am 6am 9am 12 2pm 3pm 6pm 9pm Some heat and most transport electrified ~20m homes will have a heat pump ~30m electric cars on the road 15

16 Where will our energy come from? ~50% from electricity at ~15g CO 2 (e) / kwh Wind, nuclear & CCS dominant at ~25GW 30GW each ~20GW other renewables ~15GW interconnection Generation capacity mix ~20GW embedded generation ~115GW ~35% from gas at ~185g CO 2 (e) / kwh LNG & continental imports Bio-methane ~15% from oil at ~245g CO 2 (e) / kwh Gas CCGT Coal CCS Nuclear Wind Renewable Interconnector CHP Other 16

17 Demand ~ 15 GWh (daily) million vehicles Typical winter daily demand 12,000 miles p.a. Time of Day How will we balance supply and demand? Variable generation Active distribution ib ti networks MW 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan 05-Jan 10-Jan 15-Jan 20-Jan 25-Jan 30-Jan Smart(er) grids & meters, energy storage Large generation Generation Demand Active demand Electr ricity Demand (GW) Optimal Charging Period Peak Commuting Time Peak Commuting Time Inflexible generation Smarter transmission Smart zones HVDC Series compensation WAM 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 Time of use tariffs 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Distributed generation 17

18 How will we balance supply and demand? A new mindset stop yearning for low carbon energy to be like high carbon energy MW 1,600 1,400 1,200 Wind output January 2010 more interconnection more storage 1, more responsive demand 400 some low utilisation fossil generation Jan 05-Jan 10-Jan 15-Jan 20-Jan 25-Jan 30-Jan Date 18

19 So the Drivers for Storage are. Managing Intermittency Providing response for large generation losses Minimising the need for transmission investment Minimising the need for distribution investment Storing low carbon energy at times of low system demandd Providing low carbon energy at times of high system demand Three key Questions 1. How much storage is needed? 2. What technology? 3. Where on the system should it be situated? 19

20 What technology will we use? Bulk generation Grid-scale storage Nuclear Other renewables Compressed air Flywheel Battery Energy mix Solar Wind CCS Gas Pumped hydro Interconnection to super-grid European super-grid Smart transmission substations Transmission grid Wide area situational awareness Smart transmission substations To remote micro-grid Local distribution grid Smart building and home Smart distribution substations Plug-in EV Smart HVAC Smart appliances Distributed wind, solar, CHP, other Multi-way flows & distributed resources Microgeneration Energy management system Smart EV charging + - Distributed storage Heat pumps & district heating Smart buildings Smart meter Active demand side On-site storage Source Bloomberg Consortium on Digital Energy