7. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

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1 7. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Figure 7-1: LNG supply chain Source; Total Liquid natural gas (LNG) is a good alternative to natural gas in remote locations or when the distance between the producer and consumer is too far to justify the construction of natural gas pipelines. However, for short distance the use of pipelines is cheaper. Typically LNG contains 85% to 95% methane and other hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane and butane and traces of nitrogen. It has a higher energy density than natural gas. For LNG, 1 m3 of LNG produced 11 kilowatt-hours (kwh) of electricity. Imports of LNG have been increasing indicating a shift in the natural gas markets from regional markets to a global market. At the end of 2010 LNG accounted for 31% of trade in natural gas. A huge growth for the sector as the industry only started trialling LNG deliveries in the middle of the 1900s. The advantage of LNG over piped capacity is its flexibility. For example, LNG cargo can be diverted en route to meet changing demand. Figure 7-2: The transition of LNG technology Source; Schlumberger Business Consulting; Vaclav Smil, 2010 Prices for LNG and LNG charter rates are high. The sector needs processing facilities, import and export terminals and tankers along with infrastructure associated with the natural page 71

2 gas sector, which are expensive. The production of LNG is affected by steel prices, high engineering costs and human resource availability. An issue for the sector is the volatility of shipping prices and supply. LNG is transported in specially-built carriers with a capacity of 145,000 to over 200,000 m3. If a tanker is ordered on the basis of speculative demand projections or pricing, it may not be delivered until three to four years later. Furthermore, LNG projects are costly and it is expensive to build up an LNG supply chain e.g. Australia s Gorgon project cost over USD 50 billion. Floating LNG (FLNG) projects have been receiving a lot of interest recently and over eight are in the planning stages in the Asia Pacific region. Such projects can potentially be used to exploit isolated offshore natural gas resources and could potentially off more flexibility, lower lead times and lower costs than onshore projects. The first project, the Prelude, is expected to be commissioned in the Browse basin off Australia in Once completed, it will produce 3.6 million tonnes of LNG per year from the 85 bcm natural gas resource. Shell approved the project in 2011 and awarded a contract to Samsung to construct the USD 3 billion facility. There are also plans for an FLNG project known as the Abadi off the coast of Indonesia. Inpex is planning to start up the project in This facility will be able to produce 2.5 million tonnes per year of LNG and 8,400 barrels per day of condensate. Shell is expected to be involved in the project after Inpex announced that it had transferred a 30% stake in a block in the Arafura Sea to the company. Phase 1 of the project has been approved by the Indonesian government. In May 2009 Petronas signed an agreement with the UK s MISC Bhd and Mustang Engineering to form a joint venture company to provide FLNG engineering solutions and services worldwide. Under the agreement Petronas will hold a 60% stake through its subsidiary, PICL, and MISC and Mustang Engineering with 30% and 10% stakes respectively. There are plans for an FLNG project, to be commissioned in Japan and South Korea are the main importers of LNG accounting for 46% of all LNG imports in Figure 7-3: Market share LNG importing countries, bcm, Japan South Korea Spain United Kingdom Taiwan Other page 72

3 Qatar is the main importer of LNG accounting for 25% of all LNG exports in Figure 7-4: Market share LNG exporting countries, bcm, Qatar Indonesia Malaysia Australia Nigeria Other In the Asia Pacific region the main importers are the major economies of India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which mainly import LNG from countries within the region and Middle East. China did not import significant amounts of LNG because of its proximity to major natural gas producers in the CIS and reliance on coal. Figure 7-5: Imports of LNG in the Asia Pacific, bcm, India Japan South Korea Taiwan Middle East North Africa Europe & CIS Asia Pacific Americas Americas (Peru, Trinidad & Tobago & US) page 73

4 Asia Pacific (Australia, Brunei, Indonesia & Malaysia) Europe & CIS (Belgium, Norway & Russia) Middle East (Oman, Qatar, UAE & Yemen) North Africa (Algeria & Egypt) In Europe the main importers are France, Spain and the United Kingdom which mainly import LNG from the Middle East and North Africa. Figure 7-6: Imports of LNG in the Europe, bcm, Belgium France Greece Italy Portugal Spain Turkey United Kingdom Sub Saharan Africa Middle East North Africa Europe Americas Americas (Peru, Trinidad & Tobago & US) Europe (Belgium & Norway) Middle East (Oman, Qatar & Yemen) North Africa (Algeria, Egypt & Libya) Sub Saharan Africa (Equatorial Guinea & Nigeria) In the Americas (North and South & Central America) the main importers are Mexico and the US, but imports for both countries are expected to decline as the US shale gas market page 74

5 develops further and LNG terminals in the Gulf of Mexico are converted from import to export terminals. Figure 7-7: Imports of LNG in the Americas, bcm, Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Dominican Republic Mexico Puerto Rico United States Sub Saharan Africa North Africa Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Americas Americas (Peru, Trinidad & Tobago & US) Asia Pacific (Indonesia) Europe (Belgium & Norway) Middle East (Qatar, UAE & Yemen) North Africa (Algeria & Egypt) Sub Saharan Africa (Equatorial Guinea & Nigeria) In the Middle East there are only two major importers of LNG, Kuwait and the UAE. page 75

6 Figure 7-8: Imports of LNG in the Middle East, bcm, Kuwait United Arab Emirates Sub Saharan Africa 0.91 North Africa Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Americas Americas (Peru & US) Asia Pacific (Indonesia & Malaysia) Europe (Norway) Middle East (Oman, Qatar, UAE & Yemen) North Africa (Algeria, Egypt & Libya) Sub Saharan Africa (Nigeria) LNG trade is expected to grow by 12% and 18% in 2011, with two thirds of growth due to Qatar supplies with Yemen and Peru as major exports. Imports from Indonesia are expected to have declined by 15%. Growth markets include traditional markets including Japan, South Korea, UK, Belgium and France along with emerging markets of China and India. Several LNG import/export terminals were commissioned or expected to be commissioned in The Chinese projects are expected to collectively add 8.5 million tonnes of new capacity. Table 7-1: LNG terminals due to be commissioned in 2011 Country Import/Export terminal Capacity, million tonnes Type Status Start-up page 76

7 Argentina Escobar 2 Import Operational May 2011 China Dalian 8.5 Import Under construction Q Fujian Expansion Phase 2 Import Operational May 2011 Rudong Import Operational May 2011 India Dabhol 5 Import Operational Q Italy Offshore Livorno 4.1 Import Operational Q Mexico Manzanillo 4 Import Operational Q Netherlands Gate 9 Export Operational September 2011 Thailand Map Ta Phut 5 Import Under construction Q USA Golden Pass 15.6 Import Operational March 2011 Source; Ordinary General Meeting CEDIGAZ, Rueil Malmaison, 24 June 2011 Over the longer term Cedigaz expects that world trade in LNG will increase on average 6% annually from 296 bcm in 2010 to over 560 bcm in 2020 driven by strong growth demand in India and China; limited growth but consistent demand in existing markets of Japan and South Korea and a large growth from newer entrants e.g. Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. An additional demand of 20 million tonnes is expected to be created following the Fukushima accident. In Europe LNG is expected to enable the integration of intermittent renewables and provide flexibility. Fast growing markets include Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates and new entrants include Bangladesh, Croatia, El Salvador, Germany, Hong Kong, Jamaica, Lithuania, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Uruguay and Vietnam. Major new entrants into the market are expected to be Indonesia, Malaysia, Poland, Singapore and Vietnam. page 77

8 Figure 7-9: LNG demand by region, bcm, 2009 to Asia North America Europe Latin America & Middle East Source; Ordinary General Meeting CEDIGAZ, Rueil Malmaison, 24 June 2011 This is reflected by the degasification (LNG to natural gas) capacity under construction and likely to be commissioned over the next four years. Major regassification projects have been recently commissioned or are in the pipeline e.g. Pascaqoula in the US, Dunkirk in France due to be commissioned in 2015 and terminals are planned in Croatia and Poland. Many degasification projects have been approved and constructed before long-term LNG contracts have been signed. Figure 7-10: Regasification projects under construction and likely to be commissioned, million tonnes, 2011 to 2015 Emerging Markets of Latin America & Asia (left) and Industrialised Markets in the Atlantic Basin (right) page 78

9 Source; Ordinary General Meeting CEDIGAZ, Rueil Malmaison, 24 June 2011 On the supply side, Australia and Qatar are expected to be the two biggest producers of LNG. Australia may overtake the Qatar in the longer term as an extra 30 million tonnes of capacity from the Curtis Gladstone, Gorgon and Queensland LNG plants to liquefy Australian gas is due to come online by Figure 7-11: Liquefaction capacity in Australia, million tonnes, 2007 to Operational and under construction Planned Source; Ordinary General Meeting CEDIGAZ, Rueil Malmaison, 24 June 2011 The LNG market is one area where natural supply constraints are expected not due to a shortage of gas supplies but a shortage of liquefaction capacity to convert natural gas to LNG, but not for re-gasification of LNG to natural gas. A supply shortage of LNG may occur after 2015 following the end of a supply glut due to increased demand for Japan and other page 79

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