Global Strategic Energy Challenges

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1 WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Global Strategic Energy Challenges Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY US DOE US DOE Special Award Special Award for Analytical for Analytical Excellence Excellence ABN AMRO ABN AMRO Award of Award of Excellence Excellence World Coal World Coal Institute Institute Special Award Special Award

2 World Primary Energy Demand 6,000 5,000 Oil 4,000 Natural gas Mtoe 3,000 Coal 2,000 1,000 Nuclear power Hydro power Non-hydro renewables Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030

3 Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the world s population to modern energy Investment in energy-supply infrastructure

4 Developing Asia Oil and Gas Imports Oil Net Imports Oil Net Imports Gas Net Imports: 45% Imports Imports: 72% Gas Net Imports Gas Production Oil Production Gas Production Oil Production Developing Asia will become more dependent on oil & gas imports, from fewer countries mainly Middle East and Russia.

5 Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the world s population to modern energy Investment in energy-supply infrastructure

6 Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions 40,000 35,000 million tonnes of CO2 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, World OECD Transition economies Developing countries World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in % above 2000 levels

7 World Primary Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions Average annual per cent growth rate Energy demand CO2 emissions Emissions increase faster than demand over the next 30 years, because the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix grows

8 Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the world s population to modern energy Investment in energy-supply infrastructure

9 Map of Global Energy Poverty Millions of People Without Electricity Millions of People Relying on Biomass 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-saharan Africa

10 Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the world s population to modern energy Investment in energy-supply infrastructure

11 World Energy Investment Total investment: 16 trillion dollars E&D 72% 46% Power generation Refining Other 13% 15% Oil 19% Electricity 60% 54% T&D E&D LNG Chain T&D and Storage 55% 8% 37% Gas 19% Coal 2% 88% Mining 12% Production accounts for the majority of investment in the supply chain except for electricity Shipping and ports

12 World Transportation Oil Demand mb/d GDP (billion 2000 US$ using PPPs) Oil demand for transport increases very closely in line with GDP in all regions

13 World Oil Production mb/d OPEC - Middle East Non-OPEC OPEC - Other Non-conventional oil OPEC countries mainly in Middle East will account for bulk of the increase in world oil production to 2030

14 250 Oil Production and Capacity Additions mb/d Production Expansion to meet demand growth Replacement to maintain capacity The bulk of additions to crude oil production capacity will be needed simply to maintain capacity

15 Access to Oil Reserves Concession 21% Iraq 10% National companies only (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mexico) 35% Production sharing 12% Limited access - National companies 22% 1,032 billion barrels Access to much of the world s remaining oil reserves is restricted

16 Oil and Gas Reserves Proven reserves are sufficient to meet demand for next three decades But considerable uncertainty over remaining probable and possible reserves Uncertainty is especially great in key producing countries Need for more transparent, consistent and comprehensive data is obvious

17 Restricted Middle East Oil Investment Scenario OPEC Middle East Share in Global Oil Supply per cent Restricted Investment Scenario Reference Scenario OPEC Middle East s share of global oil production is assumed to remain flat at under 30% in Restricted Investment Scenario

18 Age of Installed Capacity in EU GW Oil Gas Coal Uranium 20 0 < 10 years years years > 30 years Europe's power plants are ageing: half current capacity - mostly coal-fired - could be retired before 2030

19 Electricity Revenue and Return on Capital of Indian SEBs Return on capital Revenue as % of cost The desperate financial straits of Indian state electricity boards underlines the urgent need for pricing reform

20 Power Sector Private Investment in Developing Countries billion dollars Developing countries will need to reverse the slump in private capital flows if projected investment is to be forthcoming

21 Some concluding remarks Governments: less direct intervention as lender or owner facilitator role Policymakers need to ensure basic principles of good governance are applied and respected Fiscal and regulatory incentives for developing advanced technologies could speed their deployment and dramatically alter energy patterns Need for concerted international efforts

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