1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS... 9 PART I POLICY ANALYSIS GENERAL ENERGY POLICY ENERGY EFFICIENCY...

Transcription

1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND KEY RECOMMENDATIONS... 9 Executive summary... 9 Key recommendations PART I POLICY ANALYSIS GENERAL ENERGY POLICY Country overview Energy sector achievements and developments Energy policy challenges and opportunities Assessment Recommendations ENERGY EFFICIENCY Overview Final energy use Institutions Policies and measures Assessment Recommendations CLIMATE CHANGE Overview Targets and objectives Energy related CO 2 emissions Institutions Policies and measures Impacts of climate change on the energy sector and adaptation measures Assessment Recommendations

2 PART II SECTOR ANALYSIS NATURAL GAS Overview Supply Imports Demand Gas transmission system Market structure, regulation and reform Assessment Recommendations OIL Overview Supply Market structure of upstream production Demand Taxation Refineries Infrastructure Crude oil and oil products exports Assessment Recommendations COAL Overview Supply Consumption Exports Challenges of the Russian coal industry Current coal policy developments Assessment Recommendations ELECTRICITY Overview Supply and demand Institutions Market design and regulation Market structure Networks Electricity prices and taxes Assessment Recommendations...217

3 9. RENEWABLE ENERGY Overview Supply and demand Policies and support measures Assessment Recommendations NUCLEAR ENERGY Overview Nuclear capacity Institutional and legal framework Structure of Rosatom s nuclear power complex Front and back end of the nuclear fuel cycle: Nuclear waste management and decommissioning Nuclear safety and regulation Education and reasearch Assessment Recommendations DISTRICT HEATING Overview Supply and demand Key policies and legislation The modernisation challenge: Energy saving potential and quality of services Assessment Recommendations PART III ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH AND DEPLOYMENT Overview Policies International collaboration Assessment Recommendations PART IV ANNEXES ANNEX A: Organisation of the review ANNEX B: International Energy Agency Shared Goals ANNEX C: Glossary and list of abbreviations

4 List of figures, tables, boxes, maps FIGURES Map of Russia Russia s GDP growth and average Ural prices, Russia s trade balance and its correlation with the oil price, Russia s TPES, TPES/GDP (energy intensity) in Russia, Kazakhstan and selected IEA member countries in comparison, Energy production by source, Main oil and gas activities in foreign countries of Russia s companies (as of end 2013) TFC in the industrial sector, Comparison of TPES/capita, , Russia, Kazakhstan and a selection of IEA member countries TFC, TFC by sector and by source, CO 2 emissions by fuel, CO 2 emissions by sector, Energy related CO 2 emissions per GDP in Russia and selected IEA member countries, Gas production by leading Russian gas companies, Outlook for Russia s gas production until Gazprom s imports of gas, Russia s domestic gas consumption, Natural gas supply by sector, Natural gas consumption by sector, Industry gas prices in Russia and IEA member countries, Industry gas prices in Russia and in selected IEA member countries, Evolution of Gazprom s total exports to the FSU and Far Abroad countries, Evolution of Gazprom s exports to its key export markets, New gas export projects in the Far East Russia s total liquids production, Geological structure of Western Siberia s hard to recover oil reserves as compared with sandstone reservoirs Split of Russian oil production by companies, Evolution of crude oil and condensate production by leading Russian oil companies, Oil demand by sector, Overview of current taxation levels for conventional crude oil Transneft s oil product pipelines Transneft s crude oil pipeline system Russia s exports of crude oil and oil products and share of exports in total liquids production, Russia crude oil exports by leading companies, Russia's exports of oil products by leading companies,

5 6.12 Flows by major export direction, January 2009 to January Coal supply by sector, Coal basins in Russia Mining cash cost curve of thermal exported coal in Russia FOB prices of thermal coal from Vostochny and Baltic ports, 2010 May Age of coal fired plants, by capacity (GW) Electricity generation by source, Installed electricity generation in key global economies by fuel, Generation capacities in the Russian national energy system, Electricity consumption by sector, Trends and drivers of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, GDP and electricity consumption, Investment trends: Installed power capacity in Russia, by fuel, Supply/demand balance in the Russian energy systems for the peak demand day of 21 December 2012 (GW) Age of installed thermal generation capacity in Russia in general and for hydropower in particular Installed capacity of Russian electricity generating companies Major transmission lines and generation capacities in Russia Average wholesale electricity price, (RUB/MWh) Wholesale electricity price zones (RUB) The 27 capacity market zones Trends in end user electricity prices, The electricity bill, Electricity prices in Russian and IEA member countries, Renewable energy as a percentage of TPES, Renewable energy as a percentage of TPES in Russia and IEA member countries, Electricity generation from renewable sources as a percentage of all generation in Russia and IEA member countries, Global levelised costs of power generation ranges, first quarter of Evolution of average investment costs for solar PV systems in Italy by size Evolution of power generation costs from land based wind turbines, H H Evolution of power generation costs from land based wind turbines, Nuclear capacity in 2013 and planned capacity in 2030* Reactors in operation, under construction and planned until 2030 in Russia Rosatom nuclear power complex TABLES 2.1 GDP growth projections for Russia by leading international organisations and the Russian Central Bank in early 2014 for the period GHG emissions (BtCO 2 eq) Licences distributed as of the end of 2013 for Russia s offshore blocks, including Arctic, Black Sea and Azov Sea (as of 31 December 2013) Key offshore exploration projects linking Gazprom and Rosneft with foreign companies Estimate of regulated wholesale gas price increases, Main gas sector taxes and characteristics

6 5.5 Major Russian LNG projects under construction or planned Key characteristics of the MET MET breaks for offshore resources MET breaks for hard to recover resources Export tax rates for crude oil and oil products Export tax breaks for offshore deposits Characteristics of Russia s largest refineries Major ports for oil export Crude oil transportation and exports to the Asia Pacific region from the ESPO system, 2013 and Key oil fields that are or will be supplying the ESPO pipeline Coal production in the main regions (2013) Comparison of coal imports in the main importing countries, 2007 and Normative reserve margins in the UES, in %, The Russian electricity network (in km) Targets for the installation of renewable energy capacity for the period (MW) Total expected power generation from RES, (MW) Maximum capital costs set by the government for RES to be eligible for certification (RUB per kilowatt) Minimum local content requirements as in Resolution No Nuclear reactors in operation Nuclear reactors under construction Nuclear reactors planned until Nuclear reactors under development outside Russia R&D expenditures of key Russian energy companies (RUB billion/percentage of revenues) BOXES Reductions in energy intensity do not necessarily reflect reduction in energy use in absolute terms Targeting energy intensive industry: China Top 1,000 and Top 10,000 Programme Towards integrated policy approaches to promote energy efficiency in the building sector: The multifaceted German policy framework Towards a gas based transport system in Russia Emerging ESCO activities in Russia Russia s system of reserve classification, recent changes and comparison with international standards Addressing transportation, safety and environmental challenges in the Arctic Shale revolution in Russia? Lessons from the United States Russia s eight VIOCs Empowering consumer choice in electricity markets Determining capacity prices in the wholesale market Russian nuclear energy sector in numbers Promoting co generation: An example from the United Kingdom Strategic approach to district heating modernisation International experience on best practices to foster R&D...284