LECTURE #24: Mega Disasters Climate Change
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1 GEOL 0820 Ramsey Natural Disasters Spring, 2018 LECTURE #24: Mega Disasters Climate Change Date: 17 April 2018 I. Early Earth was more similar to present-day Venus o very high amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere and hotter temperatures Venus early Earth Earth today carbon dioxide (CO2) 96.5% 98% 0.04% nitrogen (N2) 3.4% 1.9% 78% oxygen (O2) ~ 0% ~ 0% 21% argon (Ar) 0.007% 0.1% 0.93% average temperature ( F) * average pressure (bars) * Earth would be at/below 32 F with no CO2! o so, where did all the CO2 go? 80% is in rocks like limestone (CaCO3) and other organic material (oil/gas/coal) some dissolved into the oceans plants converted CO2 and produced O2 other biologic uses of CO2 (bones, shells) II. Long Term Climate Change Earth s history shows large variations in climate o from very early on with the large CO2 percentages o to much later in history with extended periods of cooling/ice ages to periods of warming (e.g., time of the dinosaurs) o how do we know this? can examine changes in rock and fossil composition over time for example: O2 isotope ratio in shells there are three isotopes of O2 ( 16 O, 17 O, 18 O) evaporation from the oceans favors lighter isotopes therefore, a concentration of 16 O and 17 O on land (ice/snow) and a concentration of 18 O in the sea if the amount of 18 O/ 16 O is measured in shells, scientists know about the conditions of the water at the time they were formed - more 18 O meant warmer conditions why? Page 1/6
2 o factors that lead to these changes over time? plate tectonics continental land mass at the poles - collects more snow and ice sheets form leads to colder climates N-S alignment of continents (like today) blocks the normal E-W flow of warm equatorial waters causes them to flow N or S (like the Gulf Stream) - leads to more evaporation and more snow and more cooling external factors changes in the Earth s orbit changes in the sun s energy output sea level rise over time temperature over time III. CO2 and More Recent Climate Shifts shorter term trends o melting of large ice masses on land and rising ocean temperatures affect the ocean circulation patterns o El Niño / La Niña cycles of warming and cooling in the Pacific Ocean changes rainfall and temperature patterns in N. America and elsewhere example, increased hurricane formation and western wildfires in La Niña years Page 2/6
3 o large volcanic eruptions (in recent history) particulates (ash and other gases) reflect incoming solar energy can cause years to decades of cooling o very large eruptions (Earth s history) causes extreme weather/climate/agricultural changes example: Toba super eruption 74,000 ago - reduced the total human population to < 10,000 people! human influences o burning fossil fuels o land clearing (burning of vegetation) adds ~ 6 gigatons of CO2 per year still a small influence compared to natural processes but could be enough to trigger a rapid change ( tipping point ) o 20 th century the rates of warming are faster than anything in geologic history recent temperature change causes? changes in plate tectonics, Earth s orbit, solar output? - all too slow no major volcanic eruptions therefore, change in the greenhouse gasses (us!) - most dramatic since 1977 average of ~ 1 F (not noticeable to us) about ~ 40% of that due directly to man-made activities (emission of greenhouse gases) Page 3/6
4 what are greenhouse gases? o most common: water vapor (H2O) carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O) ozone (O3) CFC s o allow solar heat in but trap the radiant heat from the Earth from escaping water vapor (H2O) responsible for ~ 75% of the greenhouse effect o commonly produce positive feedback loops example, more warming more evaporation more H2O in the atmosphere more warming another example, snow/ice cover: more warming less snow/ice less solar energy reflected & more absorbed by the Earth more warming CO2 receives the most attention (example, the Keeling curve) - small changes have a much larger impact - CO2 is the highest in the atmosphere in the past 800,000 years - only about 50% is removed by natural processes Keeling Curve IV. Next 100 years? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) o 100 s of scientists meeting and reporting their findings on climate change o assess current models/predictions o report areas of uncertainty: climate impacts and uncertainty (IPCC) Page 4/6
5 o issue high-level findings, such as: warming of climate is not in question 90% of all warming since 1950 is due to human activity all greenhouse gases are at their highest amount in the past 650,000 years probability that it is all from natural causes is < 5% average world temperatures could rise from 1 to 6 F by 2100 estimated temperature rise by 2090 (relative to 1990) > 90% chance of more frequent heat waves and heavy rainfall > 60% chance of increased droughts, hurricanes, and extreme tides a rise in sea level of between 7 23 inches levels now will continue to affect the climate for the next 1,000 years! V. Mitigation Options? changes in technology o carbon-free or carbon-neutral energy technologies for power plants, cars, etc. takes time (politics) o cap and trade limit CO2 emissions through a market-based trading system CO2 producers pay more for emissions credits non-co2 producers gain by selling credits o air scrubbing possible but VERY expensive o fertilizing the oceans to grow algae (similar to massive tree planting) they would take up CO2 effects on the ocean s biosphere unknown? o weathering of rocks pulls CO2 out of atmosphere and makes carbonic acid also very slow Page 5/6
6 o geoengineering inject large amounts of particles into the atmosphere to reflect solar energy similar to a volcanic eruption risks unknown? carbon sequestration capturing CO2 and injecting it deep underground in a liquid form o all will take a long time and large cost to implement lowers the political will to act Page 6/6
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