The US shale revolution Implications for the North American energy markets
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1 The US shale revolution Implications for the North American energy markets NOG/Folk och Forsvar seminar Stockholm, 19 February, 13 Tor Kartevold Senior adviser Statoil
2 The US shale revolution Outline focus on the North American market North American markets Consolidation/ price formation Other regional markets US shale revolution Technology transfer Prices? LNG exports? Natural gas market Natural gas market Effects Oil market Global oil market balance Price response? Oil market Costs and prices Energy security Technology transfer Other industries (macroeconomic) Other industries (macroeconomic) Macroeconomic effects
3 North American natural gas production/market Huge resource base and low(er) costs Opportunities for LNG exports? 3
4 The North American natural gas markets The region has been self sufficient the US import position has fluctuated US natural gas balance (bcm) 15 1 Main trends Canadian pipeline gas has balanced the region Rising US imports through the 199s - Healthy domestic demand - Low prices as a result of deregulation («gas bubble») US Consumption US Production US Import share NAm Import share Source: BP Statistical Review Growing US concern in the early s - Opportunities for LNG imports «Something» happend in the mid-s - Production started to grow
5 The North American natural gas markets High prices triggered the shale gas revolution Conventional Associated CBM Tight gas Shale gas HH prices Source: Wood MacKenzie, Dec 1 US natural gas production (bcm) Large resource base - Known for years, but low well productivity until mid- High prices and entrepreneural spirit (triggers) Technological «revolution» - Combination of horizontal drilling and water fractioning - Improved «visualization» of reservoirs Low cost level US shale gas production Low gas prices in 11-1, but resilient production - Licence commitments - Reduced drilling - Learning, increased productivity, focus on «sweet spots» - High oil prices 5
6 North American gas resources Huge resource base and low costs environmental concern is a wild card? Huge resource base Long-term marginal costs ($/mmbtu) Illustration* * Based on estimates from various institutions Technology revolution Pre 5 Post 1 New production (volume) Public concern about environmental effects Resources for more than 15 years Source: US DOE EIA, Statoil. Public concern - Use of water resources - Contamination of ground water? - Earth quakes? Federal assessment to be finalized in 1 Progress report (1): Not dramatic The industry could expect tight(er) regulations
7 North American energy and gas demand Outlook for moderate growth in gas demand North American energy demand (mtoe) North American gas demand (bcm) 3,,5, 1, Other transformation Non-energy Other stationary Industry Power Transport Residential 1,,5 5, Renewable Nuclear Gas Oil Coal US energy policy is crucial - Expectations/outlook for rising efficiency - Administrative measures (mandates), and eventually - Implementation of climate policy beyond? Coal and oil will lose market shares Strongest demand growth in the power sector Cheap gas towards moderate «re-industrialization» - Chemicals, but also other industries Potential for some gas penetration in transportion Source: Statoil, Energy Perspectives 1.
8 North American LNG exports Potential for exports to Asia and Europe? LNG exports economics from the US $/mmbtu To Europe Import price To Asia Drivers behind LNG export More globalized markets pull/push from other regions Economic risk: Uncertainty about future price levels US energy/lng export policy: Cautious opening - Acceptable market- and macroeconomic effects - Still approval of projects case by case - Only one project approved 8 6 9, 7, 5, 3, North American LNG export (bcm) History Consultant 1 Consultant IEA (WEO 1) Statoil (1) HH price Liquefaction* Shipping Regasification Source: IEA, WEO 1, * Incl. costs of pipelines to export terminal 1, -1, , 8
9 US shale gas revolution conclusions The strongest markets effects have and will come in America Conclusions North American markets - Cost level and gas prices have (already) shifted downwards - Gas more important in the future energy mix? - Potential for LNG exports - Stimulus to chemicals and energy intensive industry Market balance pressure Price formation LNG imports New and stronger trade flows? Europe and Asian markets - North American LNG exports may soften the market balances, and - May add to pressure on oil indexation, but - The energy policy dilemmas are the most important «Fracking» technology Exports of «fracking» technology - Resources are in place, but uncertain, and - The cost level is higher than in the US - Expectations have dampened - Implementation may take more than a decade EU energy policy Role of natural gas Russian export strategy 9
10 US oil production Large resource base of tight oil but it is not low costs resources Too much of a good thing? Towards transformation of the Middle East? 1
11 The US tight oil revolution The shale gas success has spread to oil Conditions have been in place Well-known resources (but uneconomic up to 8) New technology and strong price incentives Supportive supplier industry and flexible infrastructure - pipeline bottlenecks, but flexible rail system 3,5 1,5 US tight oil production (mb/d) Based on current price level Bakken Eagle Ford Other 1, F 15F Sources: IEA, US EIA, Statoil (forecast) 11
12 The US oil market High import dependence and geopolitical concern US oil consumption and total liquids production (mb/d, pct) 7 US Consuption 1 US total liquids production (mb/d) US liquids production* Net imports** Source: US DOE EIA ** Incl. Processing gains, ** Crude imports and products exports Lower 8* Alaska Offshore Tight oil NGL Other Oxyg Adjustments Biofuels Proc gains Source: US DOE EIA 1
13 The US tight oil revolution Huge uncertainty about how much and how fast? The global market and oil prices are the most important? Uncertainties about various drivers Below ground drivers - The productivity of the formations - Further learning and technological improvements - Recovery rate: 1-% (up to revolution) or 5-1%? Regulations - Concern about ground water tighter regulations? Well economics and market risk - High depletion rates of individual wells - Break-even prices (WTI) mainly from $6 to $8/bbl - Investments are also sensitive to cash-flow - WTI prices in the $85-75/bbl range may hurt - Pipeline bottlenecks but only temporary The global oil market - Is there room for +/- mbd of US tight oil? US tight oil production (mbd) Dependent on oil price level - Something may have to give Most likely? Upside Potential EP 1 (May) Source: US DOE EIA, Statoil, various energy consultants
14 Future US oil import dependence US import share may fall sharply but magnitude dependent on prices mb/d US net imports pct Two oil price scenarios 5,, 15, Reference Case prices around $1/bbl - Long-term supply costs above $9/bbl - Further moderate supply disruptions - Acceptable demand for Saudi crude oil (assumption) Price cycle around $75/bbl - Lower prices slow US tight oil expansion for several years - Relative stability of the Middle East 1, 3 5, 1, Consumption (RC) Procduction (RC) Import share (RC) Import share ($75/bbl) Source: US DOE EIA, Statoil, various energy consultants mb/d 8 6 Opec spare capacity Iraqi oil production (rhs) Other Opec spare capacity* Saudi spare capacity Iraqi oil production (rhs) Source: IEA, Statoil, Energy Perspectives. May 1 mb/d 6 ** * *Higher spare capacity with revised US tight oil forecasts 1
15 US shale oil revolution conclusions The revolution will affect the rest of the world Conclusions Huge resources of tight oil, but The US tight oil production is price sensitive - The most expensive spots have high break-even prices Market balance pressure Price formation US/non-Opec production Towards sustained high growth? The US important dependence will fall sharply - From 7.6 mbd (1) to 1-5 mbd (scenario dependent) - Reduced pressure to tighten energy efficiency mandates? The Middle East is still important - Outlook for continued and social and political turmoil, and - Further supply disruption - Severe and long lasting disruption justify high North American oil production Exports of «fracking» technology - Resources are in place, but uncertain and high cost - Implementation may take more than a decade (like natural gas) «Fracking» technology Transformation of the Middle East How large supply disruptions? Saudi price strategy Volume Prices and income 15
16 Presentation title Presenters name Presenters title Tel:
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