The US shale revolution Implications for the North American energy markets

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The US shale revolution Implications for the North American energy markets"

Transcription

1 The US shale revolution Implications for the North American energy markets NOG/Folk och Forsvar seminar Stockholm, 19 February, 13 Tor Kartevold Senior adviser Statoil

2 The US shale revolution Outline focus on the North American market North American markets Consolidation/ price formation Other regional markets US shale revolution Technology transfer Prices? LNG exports? Natural gas market Natural gas market Effects Oil market Global oil market balance Price response? Oil market Costs and prices Energy security Technology transfer Other industries (macroeconomic) Other industries (macroeconomic) Macroeconomic effects

3 North American natural gas production/market Huge resource base and low(er) costs Opportunities for LNG exports? 3

4 The North American natural gas markets The region has been self sufficient the US import position has fluctuated US natural gas balance (bcm) 15 1 Main trends Canadian pipeline gas has balanced the region Rising US imports through the 199s - Healthy domestic demand - Low prices as a result of deregulation («gas bubble») US Consumption US Production US Import share NAm Import share Source: BP Statistical Review Growing US concern in the early s - Opportunities for LNG imports «Something» happend in the mid-s - Production started to grow

5 The North American natural gas markets High prices triggered the shale gas revolution Conventional Associated CBM Tight gas Shale gas HH prices Source: Wood MacKenzie, Dec 1 US natural gas production (bcm) Large resource base - Known for years, but low well productivity until mid- High prices and entrepreneural spirit (triggers) Technological «revolution» - Combination of horizontal drilling and water fractioning - Improved «visualization» of reservoirs Low cost level US shale gas production Low gas prices in 11-1, but resilient production - Licence commitments - Reduced drilling - Learning, increased productivity, focus on «sweet spots» - High oil prices 5

6 North American gas resources Huge resource base and low costs environmental concern is a wild card? Huge resource base Long-term marginal costs ($/mmbtu) Illustration* * Based on estimates from various institutions Technology revolution Pre 5 Post 1 New production (volume) Public concern about environmental effects Resources for more than 15 years Source: US DOE EIA, Statoil. Public concern - Use of water resources - Contamination of ground water? - Earth quakes? Federal assessment to be finalized in 1 Progress report (1): Not dramatic The industry could expect tight(er) regulations

7 North American energy and gas demand Outlook for moderate growth in gas demand North American energy demand (mtoe) North American gas demand (bcm) 3,,5, 1, Other transformation Non-energy Other stationary Industry Power Transport Residential 1,,5 5, Renewable Nuclear Gas Oil Coal US energy policy is crucial - Expectations/outlook for rising efficiency - Administrative measures (mandates), and eventually - Implementation of climate policy beyond? Coal and oil will lose market shares Strongest demand growth in the power sector Cheap gas towards moderate «re-industrialization» - Chemicals, but also other industries Potential for some gas penetration in transportion Source: Statoil, Energy Perspectives 1.

8 North American LNG exports Potential for exports to Asia and Europe? LNG exports economics from the US $/mmbtu To Europe Import price To Asia Drivers behind LNG export More globalized markets pull/push from other regions Economic risk: Uncertainty about future price levels US energy/lng export policy: Cautious opening - Acceptable market- and macroeconomic effects - Still approval of projects case by case - Only one project approved 8 6 9, 7, 5, 3, North American LNG export (bcm) History Consultant 1 Consultant IEA (WEO 1) Statoil (1) HH price Liquefaction* Shipping Regasification Source: IEA, WEO 1, * Incl. costs of pipelines to export terminal 1, -1, , 8

9 US shale gas revolution conclusions The strongest markets effects have and will come in America Conclusions North American markets - Cost level and gas prices have (already) shifted downwards - Gas more important in the future energy mix? - Potential for LNG exports - Stimulus to chemicals and energy intensive industry Market balance pressure Price formation LNG imports New and stronger trade flows? Europe and Asian markets - North American LNG exports may soften the market balances, and - May add to pressure on oil indexation, but - The energy policy dilemmas are the most important «Fracking» technology Exports of «fracking» technology - Resources are in place, but uncertain, and - The cost level is higher than in the US - Expectations have dampened - Implementation may take more than a decade EU energy policy Role of natural gas Russian export strategy 9

10 US oil production Large resource base of tight oil but it is not low costs resources Too much of a good thing? Towards transformation of the Middle East? 1

11 The US tight oil revolution The shale gas success has spread to oil Conditions have been in place Well-known resources (but uneconomic up to 8) New technology and strong price incentives Supportive supplier industry and flexible infrastructure - pipeline bottlenecks, but flexible rail system 3,5 1,5 US tight oil production (mb/d) Based on current price level Bakken Eagle Ford Other 1, F 15F Sources: IEA, US EIA, Statoil (forecast) 11

12 The US oil market High import dependence and geopolitical concern US oil consumption and total liquids production (mb/d, pct) 7 US Consuption 1 US total liquids production (mb/d) US liquids production* Net imports** Source: US DOE EIA ** Incl. Processing gains, ** Crude imports and products exports Lower 8* Alaska Offshore Tight oil NGL Other Oxyg Adjustments Biofuels Proc gains Source: US DOE EIA 1

13 The US tight oil revolution Huge uncertainty about how much and how fast? The global market and oil prices are the most important? Uncertainties about various drivers Below ground drivers - The productivity of the formations - Further learning and technological improvements - Recovery rate: 1-% (up to revolution) or 5-1%? Regulations - Concern about ground water tighter regulations? Well economics and market risk - High depletion rates of individual wells - Break-even prices (WTI) mainly from $6 to $8/bbl - Investments are also sensitive to cash-flow - WTI prices in the $85-75/bbl range may hurt - Pipeline bottlenecks but only temporary The global oil market - Is there room for +/- mbd of US tight oil? US tight oil production (mbd) Dependent on oil price level - Something may have to give Most likely? Upside Potential EP 1 (May) Source: US DOE EIA, Statoil, various energy consultants

14 Future US oil import dependence US import share may fall sharply but magnitude dependent on prices mb/d US net imports pct Two oil price scenarios 5,, 15, Reference Case prices around $1/bbl - Long-term supply costs above $9/bbl - Further moderate supply disruptions - Acceptable demand for Saudi crude oil (assumption) Price cycle around $75/bbl - Lower prices slow US tight oil expansion for several years - Relative stability of the Middle East 1, 3 5, 1, Consumption (RC) Procduction (RC) Import share (RC) Import share ($75/bbl) Source: US DOE EIA, Statoil, various energy consultants mb/d 8 6 Opec spare capacity Iraqi oil production (rhs) Other Opec spare capacity* Saudi spare capacity Iraqi oil production (rhs) Source: IEA, Statoil, Energy Perspectives. May 1 mb/d 6 ** * *Higher spare capacity with revised US tight oil forecasts 1

15 US shale oil revolution conclusions The revolution will affect the rest of the world Conclusions Huge resources of tight oil, but The US tight oil production is price sensitive - The most expensive spots have high break-even prices Market balance pressure Price formation US/non-Opec production Towards sustained high growth? The US important dependence will fall sharply - From 7.6 mbd (1) to 1-5 mbd (scenario dependent) - Reduced pressure to tighten energy efficiency mandates? The Middle East is still important - Outlook for continued and social and political turmoil, and - Further supply disruption - Severe and long lasting disruption justify high North American oil production Exports of «fracking» technology - Resources are in place, but uncertain and high cost - Implementation may take more than a decade (like natural gas) «Fracking» technology Transformation of the Middle East How large supply disruptions? Saudi price strategy Volume Prices and income 15

16 Presentation title Presenters name Presenters title Tel:

January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist

January Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist January 213 Christof Rühl, Group Chief Economist Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23:

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Mark Finley 14th February 216 Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Trillion, $21 25 Other 2 India Africa 15 China 1 OECD 5 OECD 1965 2 235 GDP 2

More information

Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook

Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook Energy Perspectives 213 Long-run macro and market outlook Presentation for Nätverket Olja & Gas 9 September 213 Security Eirik Wærness, Chief Economist Classificati on: Internal - Status: Energy Perspectives

More information

Unconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets

Unconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets Unconventional Oil & Gas: Reshaping Energy Markets Guy Caruso Senior Advisor JOGMEC Seminar 7 February 2013 Landscape is Changing Even as We Sit Here Today - US Projected to reach 90% Energy Self-Sufficiency

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Spencer Dale, group chief economist Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding

More information

Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook

Energy Perspectives 2013 Long-run macro and market outlook Energy Perspectives 213 Long-run macro and market outlook Eirik Wærness, Chief Economist Security Classificatio n: Internal Status: Draft Energy Perspectives 213 www.statoil.com/energyperspectives Outlook

More information

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2016 bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016 BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2016 2015: A year of plenty Richard de Caux, head of refining

More information

Challenges of Fracking for the MENA Region Martin Bachmann, Member of the Board

Challenges of Fracking for the MENA Region Martin Bachmann, Member of the Board Challenges of Fracking for the MENA Region Martin Bachmann, Member of the Board NUMOV German MENA Conference Berlin, 26 January 2017 Simplified Model of Hydrocarbon Deposits Conventional versus Unconventional

More information

Energy Market Update. Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 2011

Energy Market Update. Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 2011 Energy Market Update Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 211 Agenda Where we ve been Trends in global energy Where we are: The short-term outlook Why has oil been different? Where we are going (or might

More information

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2003 INSIGHTS

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2003 INSIGHTS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2003 INSIGHTS Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental damage caused by energy use Uneven access of the

More information

Oil and Gas in 2018: Markets, Spending, Projects. Bob Tippee Editor, Oil & Gas Journal Rice Global E&C Forum March 9, 2018

Oil and Gas in 2018: Markets, Spending, Projects. Bob Tippee Editor, Oil & Gas Journal Rice Global E&C Forum March 9, 2018 Oil and Gas in 2018: Markets, Spending, Projects Bob Tippee Editor, Oil & Gas Journal Rice Global E&C Forum March 9, 2018 For discussion Oil and gas markets will have a transformative year OPEC wants to

More information

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015

17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015 17 th February 215 BP bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop GDP Trillion, $211 PPP 24 Other Non-OECD Asia 18 OECD Contribution to GDP growth Trillion $211 PPP, 213-35 9 Population Income per

More information

Oil and natural gas: market outlook and drivers

Oil and natural gas: market outlook and drivers Oil and natural gas: market outlook and drivers for American Foundry Society May 18, 216 Washington, DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics

More information

Contents. Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications. Energy Outlook 2030 BP 2013

Contents. Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications. Energy Outlook 2030 BP 2013 January 213 Contents Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook 23 BP 213 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Fuel by fuel Implications Energy Outlook

More information

The IEA outlook for gas. Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets

The IEA outlook for gas. Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets The IEA outlook for gas Laszlo Varro Head, Gas Coal and Power Markets For gas the Asian century is just starting 3 000 Mtoe Primary energy consumption 2 500 coal gas 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 - Asia Europe

More information

BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand

BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand October 213 BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand Kai Dunker, Lead Economist Global Gas Markets Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global

More information

Energy markets the short and the long term

Energy markets the short and the long term Energy markets the short and the long term Christof Rühl, Chief Economist, BP BP 2012 Outline The economy A year of disruptions Long term implications Conclusion Global growth: slow and on life support

More information

World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable!

World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! OECD/IEA OECD/IEA -29-29 World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! Mtoe 18 Other renewables 16 Hydro 14 12 Nuclear 1 Biomass 8 Gas 6 Coal 4 Oil 2 198 199 2 21 22 23

More information

API Industry Outlook. Third Quarter R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Great Plains and EmPower ND Energy Conference October 8, 2018.

API Industry Outlook. Third Quarter R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Great Plains and EmPower ND Energy Conference October 8, 2018. API Industry Outlook Third Quarter 2018 R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute Great Plains and EmPower ND Energy Conference October 8, 2018 American Updated Petroleum September

More information

Orientation for a fast-changing energy world. Dr Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 21 April 2014

Orientation for a fast-changing energy world. Dr Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 21 April 2014 Orientation for a fast-changing energy world Dr Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 21 April 2014 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries

More information

The US shale revolution and its economic impact

The US shale revolution and its economic impact The US shale revolution and its economic impact Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe Groupe Idées, Rueil Malmaison, 16 mars 2015 1 The US shale revolution and its economic impact 1. Shale gas Coal-to-gas switching

More information

Energy Perspectives 2016 Long-term macro and market outlook

Energy Perspectives 2016 Long-term macro and market outlook Energy Perspectives 216 Long-term macro and market outlook Columbia University, 16 November 216 Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist 2 Energy Perspectives 216 Macro and market outlook

More information

LNG and global gas market trends: Challenges and opportunities for the Baltics Karen Sund Baltic Energy Forum Vilnius, 26 November 2013

LNG and global gas market trends: Challenges and opportunities for the Baltics Karen Sund Baltic Energy Forum Vilnius, 26 November 2013 LNG and global gas market trends: Challenges and opportunities for the Baltics Karen Sund Baltic Energy Forum Vilnius, 26 November 2013 Sund Energy helps navigate into the energy future Energy Economics

More information

Energy Prospectus Group

Energy Prospectus Group Energy Prospectus Group Founded in 2001 Current Membership is 530 We have members in 38 states and eight countries ~ 60% of our members live in Texas Mission is to help our members make money Luncheons

More information

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 218 CEDIGAZ, June 218 CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario: Main characteristics Main trends (%/year) Main

More information

Outlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry

Outlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry Outlook for the Upstream Sector of the Oil and Gas Industry VMA Market Outlook Workshop Chicago, IL Spears & Associates Tulsa, OK August 2015 Million bbls/day 3.5 World Oil Demand Growth/US Oil Supply

More information

Gas Markets Globalization: Perspectives and Limits

Gas Markets Globalization: Perspectives and Limits Gas Markets Globalization: Perspectives and Limits By: Sid Ahmed Hamdani, Senior Business Analyst, Sonatrach, Algeria Date:04 June 2012 Venue: Kuala Lumpur Towards Gas Market Globalization? Increasing

More information

Medium Term Energy Market Outlook IEEJ Energy Seminar October 213 Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets & Security, IEA Primary Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels Mtoe 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 21 22

More information

Madrid WPC Breakfast Conference 7 May Keisuke SADAMORI Director of Energy Markets and Security IEA

Madrid WPC Breakfast Conference 7 May Keisuke SADAMORI Director of Energy Markets and Security IEA Madrid WPC Breakfast Conference 7 May 2015 Keisuke SADAMORI Director of Energy Markets and Security IEA OECD/IEA 2014 Oil prices ease in March, but recover in early April $/bbl 120 110 100 90 80 70 60

More information

Lunch Session. Oil and Gas Security. Aad van Bohemen, IEA/Energy Policy and Security Division 6 March 2018 (APEC-OGSNF) IEA OECD/IEA 2017

Lunch Session. Oil and Gas Security. Aad van Bohemen, IEA/Energy Policy and Security Division 6 March 2018 (APEC-OGSNF) IEA OECD/IEA 2017 Lunch Session Oil and Gas Security Aad van Bohemen, IEA/Energy Policy and Security Division 6 March 2018 (APEC-OGSNF) IEA Long-term Energy Markets Outlook Key takeaways from WEO 2017 India takes the lead,

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2035

BP Energy Outlook 2035 BP Energy Outlook 235 Focus on North America, March 215 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth,

More information

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2005 Middle East & North Africa Insights

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2005 Middle East & North Africa Insights WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2005 Middle East & North Africa Insights Nicola Pochettino Senior Energy Analyst Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario International Energy Price Assumptions The assumed oil-price

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 3 1 Renewables 3 1 216 ET

More information

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril EIA's Global Energy Outlook For The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan October 5, 216 Japan By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

More information

Lecture 1: An Introduction to the Global Energy Economy

Lecture 1: An Introduction to the Global Energy Economy Lecture 1: An Introduction to the Global Energy Economy James Henderson April 2017 The Economics of Energy Corporations Introduction to the Course 1. Global energy situation and current trends 2. Value

More information

The Outlook for the Global LPG Market

The Outlook for the Global LPG Market The Outlook for the Global LPG Market International LP Gas Seminar 213 Ken Otto February 28, 212 Dai-Ichi Hotel Tokyo, Japan 212, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or

More information

Changing Oil and Gas Landscape

Changing Oil and Gas Landscape Changing Oil and Gas Landscape John Paisie President jpaisie@stratasadvisors.com TEL +1.713.260.4628 / MOBILE +1.832.517.7544 www.stratasadvisors.com UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM FUEL & TRANSPORT Who

More information

American Strategy and US Energy Independence

American Strategy and US Energy Independence Cordesman: Strategy and Energy Independence 10/21/13 1 American Strategy and US Energy Independence By Anthony H. Cordesman October 21, 2013 Changes in energy technology, and in the way oil and gas reserves

More information

The Unconventional Oil and Gas Market Outlook

The Unconventional Oil and Gas Market Outlook The Unconventional Oil and Gas Market Outlook The future of oil sands, shale gas, oil shale and coalbed methane Report Price: $2875 Publication Date: July 2010 E N E R G Y The Unconventional Oil and Gas

More information

Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 2017

Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 2017 Changing World of Oil and Gas March 23 th, 217 Vladimir Drebentsov Head of Russia and CIS Economics, BP plc bp.com/statisticalreview bp.com/energyoutlook #Bpstats US new-well oil production per rig hasn

More information

Global and Russian Energy Sector at the Crossroad: New Challenges

Global and Russian Energy Sector at the Crossroad: New Challenges Global and Russian Energy Sector at the Crossroad: New Challenges Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Washington 6 December,

More information

11/18/2011. Moderate demand increase High depletion rate. Alfa Laval 1. Sammy Hulpiau Segment Manager Energy & Environment. mb/d.

11/18/2011. Moderate demand increase High depletion rate. Alfa Laval 1. Sammy Hulpiau Segment Manager Energy & Environment. mb/d. Oil & Gas Sammy Hulpiau Segment Manager Energy & Environment Oil production investments are rapidly growing mb/d 120 100 80 60 NGLs Unconventional oil Crude oil fields yet to be developed or found Crude

More information

The EU energy policy: implications for the oil sector

The EU energy policy: implications for the oil sector Oil & Gas für Jedermann 11-12 Oktober 2007 Salzburg The EU energy policy: implications for the oil sector Cristobal Burgos-Alonso Energy Adviser, DG TREN, European Commission Directorate General for Energy

More information

Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution

Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution National University of Singapore Energy Studies Institute 18 May 215 Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution Edward C. Chow Senior Fellow Revenge of the Oil Price Cycle American Innovation:

More information

12 th International Energy Forum

12 th International Energy Forum 12 th International Energy Forum 29-31 March 2010, Cancun Global Energy Markets: Reducing Volatility and Uncertainty Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director, International Energy Agency Current spotlight on financial

More information

will benefit from The macroeconomic impacts of liquefied natural gas exports from the United States Sugandha D. Tuladhar redefining industries

will benefit from The macroeconomic impacts of liquefied natural gas exports from the United States Sugandha D. Tuladhar redefining industries Why the US economy will benefit from LNG exports The macroeconomic impacts of liquefied natural gas exports from the United States W. David Montgomery Sugandha D. Tuladhar The United States has witnessed

More information

3-1. Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Market

3-1. Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Market APERC Workshop at EWG52 Moscow, Russia, 18 October, 2016 3-1. Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Market James Kendell Vice President, APERC Background and outline of the study Background

More information

GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016

GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016 THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Prof. Len Grigoriev and Dr. Tatiana

More information

Disclaimer. Energy Outlook

Disclaimer. Energy Outlook January 213 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies

More information

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Sylvia Elisabeth Beyer International Energy Agency Thessaloniki, 29 June 2016 A 2 C pathway requires more technological

More information

Energy Macro Review. 3 rd Quarter 2013

Energy Macro Review. 3 rd Quarter 2013 Energy Macro Review 3 rd Quarter 2013 Oil Fundamentals 2 $/bbl WTI Oil Prices are Up in 2013 $115 $110 $105 Front Month WTI Prices WTI crude prices are up +11.1% year-to-date. Three factors have driven

More information

Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy

Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy 2016/EWG52/WKSP1/003 Effect of Crude Oil Price Drop on the Global Energy Submitted by: APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre Workshop Moscow, Russia 18 October 2016 APERC Workshop at EWG52 Moscow,

More information

6 th Asian Petrochemicals Markets Conference Shanghai, 19 April Tae-Yoon Kim

6 th Asian Petrochemicals Markets Conference Shanghai, 19 April Tae-Yoon Kim 6 th Asian Petrochemicals Markets Conference Shanghai, 19 April 2017 Tae-Yoon Kim Renewables Renewables Mtoe A new fuel in pole position Change in total primary energy demand 2 000 1990-2015 2015-2040

More information

Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances. Background Paper

Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances. Background Paper India New Delhi Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances Background Paper Disclaimer The observations presented herein are meant as background for the dialogue

More information

LNG TRADE FLOWS. Hans Stinis Shell Upstream International

LNG TRADE FLOWS. Hans Stinis Shell Upstream International LNG TRADE FLOWS Hans Stinis Shell Upstream International ABSTRACT The LNG industry has witnessed a great deal of change recently, and indications are that this will only continue. Global gas demand is

More information

Natural Gas. Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 4:00 PM 5:15 PM

Natural Gas. Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 4:00 PM 5:15 PM Natural Gas Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 4:00 PM 5:15 PM Moderator: Joel Kurtzman, Senior Fellow and Executive Director of the Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions, Milken Institute Speakers: Ralph Eads,

More information

PGC B Strategy - Triennium November 18 20, 2014 Bratislava. By: Ashkan Esmaeilifar

PGC B Strategy - Triennium November 18 20, 2014 Bratislava. By: Ashkan Esmaeilifar 1 PGC B Strategy - Triennium 2012 2015 November 18 20, 2014 Bratislava By: Ashkan Esmaeilifar 2 COUNTRY PROFILE Area (km 2 ): 49,035 Population: 5,379,000 Capital: Bratislava Member of OECD, WTO, NATO,

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum

More information

International gas markets: recent developments and prospects

International gas markets: recent developments and prospects International gas markets: recent developments and prospects Christopher Allsopp New College Oxford Director, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies December 2012 International gas markets are changing rapidly

More information

International Monetary and Financial Committee

International Monetary and Financial Committee International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-First Meeting April 18, 2015 IMFC Statement by H.E. Abdalla Salem El-Badri Secretary-General The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

More information

Perspectives on the Impact of Shale Gas and Tight Oil Production on the Global E&C Industry and Vice Versa

Perspectives on the Impact of Shale Gas and Tight Oil Production on the Global E&C Industry and Vice Versa 214 RICE GLOBAL E&C ANNUAL FORUM Perspectives on the Impact of Shale Gas and Tight Oil Production on the Global E&C Industry and Vice Versa September 23, 214 www.forum.rice.edu Today s objectives Review

More information

The future of global oil and gas. APPEC 2016, Singapore, 6 September Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist

The future of global oil and gas. APPEC 2016, Singapore, 6 September Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist The future of global oil and gas APPEC 16, Singapore, 6 September Eirik Wærness, Senior vice president and Chief economist Reform Several futures are possible 13 Renewal Rivalry Rivalry, Reform, Renewal*

More information

The Current Oil and Gas Pricing Environment and Implications for Shipping

The Current Oil and Gas Pricing Environment and Implications for Shipping The Current Oil and Gas Pricing Environment and Implications for Shipping 4 th International Energy & Shipping Seminar Athens June 8, 2018 A Presentation by Mr. Costis Stambolis Executive Director, IENE

More information

Energy in 2011 disruption and continuity

Energy in 2011 disruption and continuity June 212 bp.com/statisticalreview Energy in 211 disruption and continuity Richard de Caux, Refining Analyst, Group Economics Outline A year of disruptions Energy and the economy Fuel by fuel Concluding

More information

TIGHT OIL/ SHALE GAS REVOLUTION. RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 2013

TIGHT OIL/ SHALE GAS REVOLUTION. RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 2013 TIGHT OIL/ SHALE GAS REVOLUTION RICE Global E&C Forum - March 19, 213 GLOBAL OIL & GAS RESOURCES SOURCE: TOTAL Global resources Liquids Gas ~3,5 Gb ~2,5 Gboe 1 Oil shale Unconventional resources ** 8 35

More information

E&P STRATEGY CRUDE OIL PRICE FALL - CONSEQUENCES FOR AN E&P COMPANY

E&P STRATEGY CRUDE OIL PRICE FALL - CONSEQUENCES FOR AN E&P COMPANY E&P STRATEGY CRUDE OIL PRICE FALL - CONSEQUENCES FOR AN E&P COMPANY Hubert des Longchamps 17 th April 2015, Paris Energy Club, Paris. BRENT PRICE EVOLUTION - BACK TO VOLATILITY $/bbl Brent Price (source

More information

Changing Oil Realities - Possible Medium Term Impacts on the EU Gas And Energy Developments

Changing Oil Realities - Possible Medium Term Impacts on the EU Gas And Energy Developments Changing Oil Realities - Possible Medium Term Impacts on the EU Gas And Energy Developments Yaroslav Minullin Holger Rogner Manfred Strubegger Alaa Alkhatib Vienna, E-Control, 27 January 215 What has happened

More information

OECD/IEA The IEA gas outlook Ambassador Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director

OECD/IEA The IEA gas outlook Ambassador Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director The IEA gas outlook Ambassador Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director Key highlights Gas demand has recovered strongly in 2010 It continues to increase in 2011, except in Europe Medium-term outlook

More information

The Impact of US LNG Exports on India s Gas Market Jason Bordoff

The Impact of US LNG Exports on India s Gas Market Jason Bordoff The Impact of US LNG Exports on India s Gas Market Jason Bordoff November 30, 2016 Delhi, India US Natural Gas Outlook 2 US Shale: There Will Be Gas US Dry Gas Production Under the EIA s Reference Case

More information

GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016

GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016 THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 216 Edited by A.A. Makarov, L.M. Grigoryev,

More information

OECD/IEA Dr Fatih Birol IEA Executive Director Berlin, 16 November 2018

OECD/IEA Dr Fatih Birol IEA Executive Director Berlin, 16 November 2018 Dr Fatih Birol IEA Executive Director Berlin, 16 November 2018 Global energy demand and the growing IEA Family Share of IEA member and association Global energy countries demand in global energy demand

More information

2009 Changing the scene

2009 Changing the scene 2009 Changing the scene Gas demand in Europe and in other major economies is weakening Industrial demand strongly affected by the economic crisis Demand in the power generation sector suffers from relatively

More information

Energy in 2011 disruption and continuity

Energy in 2011 disruption and continuity June 212 bp.com/statisticalreview Energy in 211 disruption and continuity Paul Appleby, Head of Energy Economics Outline A year of disruptions Energy and the economy Fuel by fuel Concluding remarks Energy

More information

Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015

Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Signs of stress in the global energy system Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead Turmoil in the Middle East raises

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO2 2 24 4 35 15 Renewables 3 1 5 216

More information

Chart Industries, Inc.

Chart Industries, Inc. Chart Industries, Inc. Piper Jaffray August 14, 2014 Disclosure Forward-Looking Statements: This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation

More information

DUAL PLENARY SESSION: FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR OIL & GAS PRODUCTION. North American Natural Gas Outlook

DUAL PLENARY SESSION: FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR OIL & GAS PRODUCTION. North American Natural Gas Outlook DUAL PLENARY SESSION: FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR OIL & GAS PRODUCTION United States Association for Energy Economics North American Natural Gas Outlook November 5, 212 R. Dean Foreman, Ph.D. Chief Economist Talisman

More information

Navigating the Uncertainties in the North American Gas Market

Navigating the Uncertainties in the North American Gas Market Interesting Times: Navigating the Uncertainties in the North American Gas Market Ed Kelly Vice President North American Gas and Power Wood Mackenzie Risks and Uncertainties On the Supply Side The Resource

More information

Fabio Ballini World Maritime University

Fabio Ballini World Maritime University Pricing on gas: focus on LNG sectors Fabio Ballini World Maritime University What are the benefits of LNG? Environmental Benefits Table 3: Compering alterative technologies and fuels Source: SSPA, TC/1208-05-2100

More information

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK. 9 th Annual GPCA Forum. Information Analytics Expertise NOVEMBER 23, 2014

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK. 9 th Annual GPCA Forum. Information Analytics Expertise NOVEMBER 23, 2014 Information Analytics Expertise NOVEMBER 23, 214 WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 9 th Annual GPCA Forum Blake Eskew, Vice President IHS Energy - Oil Markets & Downstream +1 713 331 4 Blake.Eskew@ihs.com 214 IHS Short

More information

Impact of a low oil price environment on supply, demand, stability & growth 6 th IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks, Riyadh

Impact of a low oil price environment on supply, demand, stability & growth 6 th IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks, Riyadh Special Presentation Impact of a low oil price environment on supply, demand, stability & growth 6 th IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks, Riyadh Alexander Pögl 16 February 2016 Disclaimer All statements

More information

Crude Oil Price Volatility Crude oil price continued to be volatile (US$/bbl) Continued upswing in Collapse after Rehman shock Price surge aft

Crude Oil Price Volatility Crude oil price continued to be volatile (US$/bbl) Continued upswing in Collapse after Rehman shock Price surge aft Current Situation and Outlook for the Oil & Gas (LNG) Market Session 2 IEEJ/CNPC ETRI Joint Symposium November 8 th, 2017 Dr. Ken Koyama Chief economist and managing director Institute of Energy Economics,

More information

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December 2017 Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene

More information

The 55 th Meeting of APEC Energy Working Group (EWG) Hong Kong, China, May, Diego RIVERA RIVOTA APERC Researcher

The 55 th Meeting of APEC Energy Working Group (EWG) Hong Kong, China, May, Diego RIVERA RIVOTA APERC Researcher The 55 th Meeting of APEC Energy Working Group (EWG) Hong Kong, China, 16-17 May, 2018 Diego RIVERA RIVOTA APERC Researcher Total gas consumption in the APEC region, 2006-2016 Demand growth driven by the

More information

Summary - The Challenge to European Refining Posed by the Rise of US Unconventionals Scottish Oil Club

Summary - The Challenge to European Refining Posed by the Rise of US Unconventionals Scottish Oil Club Summary - The Challenge to European Refining Posed by the Rise of US Unconventionals Scottish Oil Club November 2014 About us We are a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and

More information

US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011

US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011 1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Fax: 1.202.775.3199 Email: acordesman@gmail.com Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy

More information

Shale Gas, Drilling Access Restrictions, and the Future of US LNG Imports

Shale Gas, Drilling Access Restrictions, and the Future of US LNG Imports Shale Gas, Drilling Access Restrictions, and the Future of US LNG Imports Peter Hartley George & Cynthia Mitchell Professor, Economics Department Academic Director, Shell Center for Sustainability Rice

More information

Shale Gas and LNG - Effects on Global Markets

Shale Gas and LNG - Effects on Global Markets Shale Gas and LNG - Effects on Global Markets STEVEN A. GABRIEL UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND THE ROLE OF NATURAL GAS IN THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM THE NEED FOR FLEXIBILITY NTNU ENERGY TRANSITION WORKSHOP NORWEGIAN

More information

The Future Role of Gas

The Future Role of Gas The Future Role of Gas GECF Global Gas Outlook 24 Insights Presentation for the 3rd IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks Dmitry Sokolov Head of Energy Economics and Forecasting Department

More information

WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL? Benedikt Unger, February 2015

WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL? Benedikt Unger, February 2015 WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL? Benedikt Unger, February 2015 WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL 2 PART 1 OIL FUNDAMENTALS WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO PEAK OIL 3 WHAT ABOUT PEAK OIL? The discussion about oil running

More information

Global energy markets

Global energy markets For Woodrow Wilson Center Global Energy Forum September 21, 215 Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent

More information

Energy Perspectives 2015 Long-term macro and market outlook

Energy Perspectives 2015 Long-term macro and market outlook Energy Perspectives 215 Long-term macro and market outlook IGU workshop, «What Does COP 21 Mean for the Role of gas? Cartagena, Columbia, 22 October 215 Runar Tjersland, Special Advisor 215-1-1 Energy

More information

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017 Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the

More information

Japan s LNG Prices Trending Upwards

Japan s LNG Prices Trending Upwards Japan s LNG Prices Trending Upwards David Wood David Wood & Associates, Lincoln UK Published in Energy Tribune December 2007 Japan is the world's largest LNG consumer and imported 81.86 bcm of natural

More information

The outlook for oil prices and the economic impacts in oil producing countries: Russia`s case

The outlook for oil prices and the economic impacts in oil producing countries: Russia`s case The outlook for oil prices and the economic impacts in oil producing countries: Russia`s case Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

More information

New York Energy Forum

New York Energy Forum Presentation to the New York Energy Forum Antoine Halff 30 June 2014 Key highlights Gas demand grew just 1.2% in 2013, underperforming other fuels Gas demand will grow at 2.2%/y over 2013-19, on its way

More information

U.S. natural gas prices after the shale boom

U.S. natural gas prices after the shale boom ENERGY ANALYSIS U.S. natural gas prices after the shale boom Kan Chen / Marcial Nava 9 March 218 Shale production fundamentally altered the relationship between oil and natural gas prices Although most

More information

2017 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document

2017 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document 2017 oil price forecast: who predicts best? Information document March 2017 Since 2007, Roland Berger has published a yearly overview of available oil price forecasts Roland Berger study of oil price forecasts,

More information

Energy Outlook. Kurt Barrow Vice President, Oil Markets, Midstream and Downstream Insights, IHS Markit

Energy Outlook. Kurt Barrow Vice President, Oil Markets, Midstream and Downstream Insights, IHS Markit Energy Outlook Kurt Barrow Vice President, Oil Markets, Midstream and Downstream Insights, IHS Markit kurt.barrow@ihsmarkit.com Building a Foundation for Profitable Growth in Uncertain Markets Agenda Short-term

More information