The Shale Gas Revolution: Global Implications in a Changing Energy Landscape

Transcription

1 The Shale Gas Revolution: Global Implications in a Changing Energy Landscape Shale Gas World Europe 2013 Expo XXI Centre, Warsaw, Poland November 26-28, 2013 Dr Basim Faraj VP New Ventures Tamboran Resources Calgary, Alberta

2 Agenda Outline Introduction to Tamboran Resources Shale an overview The US Shale Revolution Can they be replicated elsewhere? Geopolitical and Economic Implications Summary 2

3 Tamboran s Global Interests NW Carboniferous Basin Northern Ireland and Ireland 0.4 million acres Tamboran holds permits and applications for over 32 million acres of rights prospective for unconventional oil and gas Ngalia Basin 3.6 million acres Beetaloo & McArthur Basins 6.3 million acres Gemsbok Basin, Botswana 13.2 million acres Officer Basin 4.5 million acres Pedirka Basin 3.8 million acres 3

4 Shale Gas Share of Total US Gas Production 4

5 Daily Production (BCF) Shale Gas is a Revolution and a Game Changer! 12 Shale Gas accounts for 41% (29 bcf/d) of Total US 2013 Production 2.1 times the total 2011 Canadian gas annual production 6.6 times of total 2011 Australian annual gas production 5.6 times Qatar production in Average Wellhead Price Marcellus Haynesville Barnett Fayetteville Average Wellhead Price (USD/mmcf) 2 Eagle Ford 2 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan

6 Rapid Increase in Oil Production from Shale and Other Tight Resources shale and tight oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA based on DrillingInfo and LCI Energy Insight Adam Sieminski, NY Energy Forum, October 29, 2013

7 World Petroleum Resources Jarvie, 2012

8 World Class Shale Discoveries Chesapeake Energy, 2012 Annual Report

9 Global Energy Mix Through Time 80% Fossil Fuel! Wood Coal Oil Gas ExxonMobil 2011 outlook to Energy- A view to

10 Shale Gas Reservoirs Micro-Texture (Haynesville Shale) pores < 5 µm (4110 m depth) Barnett Shale pores ~ 5 µm (1280 m depth) 15 µm 20 µm Micrographs are from Core Lab Consortium, 2013

11 Distribution of Generative Organic Carbon Type I TOC (wt.%) Generative Organic Carbon (wt.%) Spent TOC Non-Generative Organic Carbon (wt.%) Type II TOC (wt.%) Generative Organic Carbon (wt.%) Spent TOC Non-Generative Organic Carbon (wt.%) Type III Generative Organic Carbon (wt.%) Spent TOC (wt.%) TOC Non-Generative Organic Carbon (wt.%) after Daly and Edman,

12 Permeability Terminology Tighter than Tight Tight Conventional Extremely Tight Very Tight Tight Low Moderate High Granite Montney Good Shale Barnett Permeability (md) 0 % porosity Limestone Sidewalk Cement General oilfield rocks Modified by B. Faraj after DOE,

13 If There is A Well, There is a Way! Encana website, 2011

14 Microseismic Monitoring is Essential for Shale Completions! ~ 10% recovery N SPE Presentation, Faraj and Brown, 2009

15 Shale Microseismic (Density of fracturing) Recovery: 60 %! 2,000 ft

16 Significant Improvements Over Time Total Well Cost, Average Lateral Length, Average IP vs Time 5,000 4,985 Average IP (Mcf/d) Average Lateral Length (Ft) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2,104 1,261 $2.6 2,512 1,497 2,622 1,769 3,193 2,027 3,301 2,343 3,562 2,541 3,736 2,882 3,850 3,874 3,350 2,992 4,123 4,100 3,611 3,604 4,303 4,348 3,727 3,197 $2.9 $3.0 $3.0 $2.9 $2.8 $3.0 $3.1 $3.1 $2.9 $2.9 $3.0 $2.8 4,532 4,503 3,449 $3.1 3,281 4,667 3,472 3,231 Lateral length increased by 2.5 times (and frac size increased by over 6 times), while production rates tripled, all while keeping wells costs flat during a period of significant service cost increases $2.8 $2.7 $2.8-1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 Total Well Cost ($MM) Average Lateral Length (ft) Average IP Rate (Mcf/d) Source: Modified from Southwestern Energy Presentations and Press Releases (Fayetteville Shale), 2009

17 Shale Oil/Gas Production Decline Barnett Gas Eagle Ford Sweet Spot Oil (1350 scf/stb) Barnett Oil Bakken Oil Jarvie, 2012

18 Should Arabia Explore for Shale? Play Gas In Place Est. (TCF) Barnett 2,100 Eagle Ford 2,100 Haynesville 1,800 Marcellus 4,700 Montney 5,700 Total 16,400 Tamboran Estimate modified from Deloitte LLP and Core Lab, 2013 Sources: US EIA 2013, US DOE 2009, Encana 2009, USGS, OilandGasInfrastructure.com 18

19 Ground Water is Safe CSUR website, 2013

20 8000 ft 5000 ft Frac Height Growth Data from US Shale Plays Aquifers After Fisher and Warpinski, 2011, SPE paper

21 Shale Gas Production Reduces Greenhouse Gases! Reduction of about 1 billion metric tons! CO 2 Emissions are back to their 1994 level! EIA website, 2013

22 The Return of Long Term Cheap Gas to the US EIA and Hector van Vierssen Trip, 2013 CSUR presentation

23 mtpa LNG Opportunities for Natural Gas are Strong The LNG supply challenge LNG trade (forecast) Supplydemand gap 175 mtpa Australia Qatar Supply: existing and under construction Source: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Aug 2012) Huge LNG demand growth gap needs to be supplied 6

24 Impact of Unconventional Resources on US Economy Year/Output Total Upstream CAPEX US $ Billion Unconventional Activity Employment Value added by unconventional US $ Billion Million 2.9 Million 3.5 Million Source: The Recent Surge in Unconventional Oil and Gas Production and Its effect in the US (Jerry Eumont, IHS, CSUR Conference Canada, October 9, 2013) About 153 billion savings in gas price in 2012 alone!

25 Shale Gas Geopolitical Implications! "It has freed up our foreign policy, it has changed our global leadership on reducing carbon in the atmosphere, and it has revitalized our economy, "(Shale gas) has freed us up in order to identify what our vital interests are in the Middle East, as opposed to being drawn into aspects that would normally not be of core interest to the United States, American factories have added 500,000 manufacturing jobs in the last 2 years, the first sustained growth in that sector since the 1990s. The shale gas revolution is probably the biggest development in the energy sector since the North Sea came on line in the seventies. (Jeffrey Bleich, the US ambassador to Australia. The Australia Newspaper, September 6, 2013).

26 Summary Unique set of factors have enabled rapid growth of supply in the US to a point where export of oil and gas from the US is feasible. The economic competitive advantage offered by cheap gas in the US for manufacturing industries could be a significant driver of economic growth in the US for the next few decades. Opportunities exist to take the lessons learnt from North American shale plays to other countries where markets and infrastructure may not be as well developed. Europe need the clean energy desperately. Shale has surprised everyone to date and will continue to surprise going forward ( internet equivalent in energy Jack Welsh 2012) It is the responsibility of the media to ensure the flow of accurate and first-hand information about shale gas and shale oil