Nuclear power in Asia- Pacific region. Ian Hore-Lacy Senior Research Analyst, World Nuclear Association

Transcription

1 Nuclear power in Asia- Pacific region Ian Hore-Lacy Senior Research Analyst, World Nuclear Association October 2015

2 Rapid electricity demand growth Focus on rapidly urbanising areas in rapidly developing countries, especially SE Asia (not N. America or Europe) WEO 2014 New Policies scenario 2

3 Total 437 operable nuclear power reactors, 66 under construction, 160+ firmly planned. 11+% of world electricity, total 381 GWe. Locations approximate

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5 6 October 2015 No mention of nuclear! 5

6 IEA 2 C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide the Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050 wind solar hydro gas nuclear coal coal CCS Source: International Energy Agency 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 6

7 Nuclear is an important part of the low carbon solution 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Brazil Sweden Switzerland France Ontario (Canada) Coal Gas Other Large Hydro Renewables Nuclear 7

8 Reactors Under Construction China 25 9 Russia 6 India Belarus 2 1 France 1 Finland 5 USA Chinese Taipei 2 1 Brazil 4 South Korea Pakistan 2 Argentina 1 4 UAE Slovakia 2 3 Japan 8

9 Main Drivers for nuclear expansion: Basic economics Energy security - geopolitical Prospect of carbon emission costs on alternatives Insurance against future fuel price increases

10 Hanbit (Yonggwang) NPP South Korea

11 11 Most demand is for continuous, reliable supply

12 500 TWh French electrical mix evolution Unit 58 (Civaux 2) TWh 10% % Unit 1 (Fessenheim 1) 1977 Oil crisis 1973 Fossil Nuclear 0 Hydro % J C Frappier, CEA

13 The nuclear reactor fleet in France 58 units in operation on 19 sites GRAVELINESS FLAMANVILLE PALUEL PENLY CHOOZ CATTENOM 900 MWe (34 Units) 1300 MWe (20 Units) PALUEL FESSENHEIM 1500 MWe (4 units) NOGENT/SEINE ST-LAURENT CHINON CIVAUX DAMPIERRE BELLEVILLE BUGEY 80% of electricity from nuclear power BLAYAIS ST-ALBAN CRUAS GOLFECH TRICASTIN The cheapest KWh in Europe J C Frappier, CEA

14 TWh The role of nuclear: Substantial growth required to meet demand in IEA 2 C scenario GW 11% of generation GW 150 GW 680 GW 6500 TWh 930 GW 8000 TWh Retirements Additions % of generation Source: IEA-NEA, 2015, Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, Paris: OECD-IEA: p. 22; IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Paris: OECD-IEA 14

15 Nuclear makes quick, lasting decarbonisation possible Source: Geoff Russell nuclear has scaled far more rapidly than renewables 15

16 Time for: a level playing field Challenges opportunities agenda for the industry Deregulated electricity markets Nuclear energy taxes Credit for low emissions High capital investments Grid system costs Subsidies Risk insurance 16

17 Time for an effective safety paradigm Paul Scherrer Institut 1998: considering 1943 accidents with more than 5 fatalities The alternatives to nuclear are far more dangerous even including accidents Chiba refinery fire Smog in Beijing 17

18 A major factor in China! 18

19 Time for: Harmonised regulatory processes Enhance standardisation of design Harmonise and update global codes and standards Streamline licensing processes Ensure efficient and effective safety regulation Nuclear innovation: enable development and licensing of new technologies 19

20 Substantial growth required to meet demand in IEA 2 C scenario TWh GW 11% of generation GW 150 GW 680 GW 6500 TWh 930 GW 8000 TWh Retirements Additions % of generation Source: IEA-NEA, 2015, OECD vision, Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, Paris: OECD-IEA: p. 22; IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Paris: OECD-IEA 20

21 Nuclear energy should supply more 11% of generation TWh GW 2400 TWh 150GW 1000 GW 9200 TWh 1250 GW TWh Retirements Additions 0 0 GW % of generation Source: IEA-NEA, 2015, WNA vision Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, Paris: OECD-IEA: p. 22; IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Paris: OECD-IEA 21

22 To deliver 1000 GW new nuclear capacity to 2050 Historic connection rate in the mid of 1980s was 31 GW per year. Present connection rate is at 5 GW per year. So: Period Connection rate Added capacity GW per year GW Connection Rate Total new nuclear capacity 1000 GW

23 Harmony goal 1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by % of electricity supply 2050, 10,700 TWh/yr Level playing field Harmonised regulatory processes Effective safety paradigm Nuclear energy to deliver reliable, affordable and clean electricity 23

24 China is busy China has 27 operating power reactors 24 GWe 24 under construction 26 GWe 43 planned 50 GWe Aim for 58 GWe operating and 30 GWe construction by Maybe 150 GWe by 2030 Huge UHV grid developments 24

25 Russia is busy Rosatom has orders for 30 nuclear power reactors in 12 countries, including India, China, Bangladesh, Vietnam - And is negotiating re 10 more It guarantees service attention for: 7-10 years planning and construction 60 years operation, then decommissioning - Total 100 years Generous loan provision for 80-85% of cost 25

26 Vietnam is hoping Electricity demand is growing 15% pa Nuclear power plans deferred but real: type MWe construction operation Ninh Thuan 1 AES x on 2025 on Ninh Thuan 2 AP1000 or Atmea1 4 x 1100?? Central APR-1400? 2 x

27 India is building India has 21 operating power reactors 5.3 GWe 6 under construction 4.3 GWe 22 planned 21 GWe Aim for 12 GWe operating and?? GWe construction by Big hold-up due to Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act Complications with Australian bilateral safeguards treaty. 27

28 China Reactor developments Qinshan: CNP-300, CNP-600, ACP-1000, ACP100 Daya Bay: M-310 from Framatome/ Areva, CPR-1000 Rationalise to Hualong One HPR1000 HTR-200, HTR-600 AP1000, CAP1000, CAP1400 EPR VVER-1000 CANDU-6 28

29 China nuclear R&D Thorium molten salt reactors: TMSR-SF, TMSR-LF, TMSFR-LF Recycled U in PHWR: RepU + DU = NUE HTR-10 demo in 2000, HTR-PM at Shidaowan, HTR-600 Fast neutron reactors: CEFR in 2010, then??, but 40 GWe by TWR agreement. PWRs: CPR ACP-1000 Hualong one 29

30 Other Asia-Pacific plans /proposals Taiwan: 6 reactors in operation, cheapest power, 2 ABWR under construction, but stalled Pakistan: 3 reactors in operation, 2 under construction, 2 large Hualong One units planned, start const soon? Bangladesh: 2 VVER-1200 reactors planned, start construction soon? Indonesia: 1 small Russian HTR planned as flagship, agreement for large units and Floating NPP Thailand: 5 reactors proposed Malaysia: several reactors proposed 30

31 Small & Medium Reactors Increasing interest For progressively-constructed large plants For small grids For isolated sites Many innovative designs Range of sizes from 10 MWe to 300 MWe (small), & to 700 MWe (medium) Diverse possible uses NuScale 50 MWe

32 Nuclear-powered Icebreaker Yamal, 23,500 dwt Powered by two 170 MWt reactors 54 MW at propellers

33 First Russian floating nuclear power plant May 2015 With 2 x 40 MWe reactors for Pevek, NE Siberia

34 Industrial heat is major potential use Tar sand processing Synfuel oil from coal Thermochemical hydrogen etc 34

35 IAEA 2008 Climate Change & Nuclear Power

36 Nuclear Desalination Reverse osmosis use electric pumps off-peak Distillation scope for cogeneration

37 Transport: electromobility Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles & EVs, Charge off-peak GM Volt/ Ampera Sold c90,000 in 2014 Increase proportion as base-load

38 38 With overnight charging of EVs

39 Higher base-load proportion reduced kwh cost

40 To 2013: About 2.5 million tonnes mined

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42 Utility uranium inventory at end of 2014 USA 45,000 t, EU 53,000 t, China 74,000 t, other East Asia 45,0000 t Enrichment underfeeding contributes c 5000 tu per year 217,000 tonnes U Cf world reactor demand 67,000 tu/yr (WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2015) 42

43 Sources of mined uranium 2014 company tonnes U percent KazAtomProm 13, Cameco ARMZ - Uranium One Areva BHP Billiton CNNC & CGN Navoi Paladin Rio Tinto others Total 56, % By marketed share, not equity 43

44 Percentage variation in U & SWU requirements with different tails assay 60.0% 50.0% SWU change % change 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% High energy low U inputs U input change Low energy high U inputs -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% Recent underfeeding Tails assay Tails Assay Change in U Req'ts (%) Change in SWU Req'ts (%)

45 Licence Renewal and Extension Now 78 US reactors (of 99) from 40 yr out to 60 years, Owners undertake major capital works at years many Russian plants from 30 out to 55 years.

46 No deaths No deaths c 50 deaths An impressive safety record! Now 16,000+ reactor-years civil, similar for naval

47 Westinghouse AP1000 reactor

48 China: Sanmen units 1 & 2 Feb 2014

49 Main new-generation nuclear reactors: GE Hitachi/Toshiba ABWR MWe - operating Areva NP EPR MWe - building Westinghouse AP MWe - building Gidropress AES MWe - building Korea HNP APR MWe - building Mitsubishi APWR MWe GE Hitachi ESBWR MWe - licensed Candu EC6 750 MWe CNEC HTR-PM 2x105 MWe x 3 = 600 MWe - building

50 Small Reactors China: CNP300 operating and being built in Pakistan India: PHWR-220 operating in India Russia: KLT-40s civil version for floating NPPs, being built Argentina: CAREM-25 being built at Atucha USA: NuScale 50 MWe planned USA: Holtec SMR-160 planned Russia: SVBR-100 fast reactor - planned USA-Japan: GE-H PRISM 311 MWe fast reactor - planned

51 Fast neutron reactors About 400 reactor-years of experience Many are and will be operated as breeders BN-600, BN-1200 in Russia, Phenix & Super Phenix in France Monju in Japan Many small designs are FNR Role in burning actinides from used conventional fuel

52 Reprocessing used fuel Current Purex hydrometallurgical, used from 1940s Not ideal Electrometallurgical Pyroprocessing separate U, actinides including Pu from molten salt => highly active product For fast reactor fuels especially. Small and short-lived waste stream.

53 Generation IV Reactors late 2020s Neutron spectrum Coolant, Temp pressure Fuel Uses Gas-cooled Fast Helium 850 C Lead-cooled Fast Lead C High U-238+ Electricity & hydrogen Low U-238+ Electricity & hydrogen Molten salt Fast Fluoride, C Low Thorium, U-238+ Electricity & hydrogen Molten salt Advanced HT reactor Slow Fluoride, C Low UO2 in prism hydrogen Sodium-cooled Fast Sodium 550 C Low U-238 & MOX electricity Super-critical Fast or slow Water C Very High U-235 electricity High-temp gascooled Slow Helium C High U-235 Hydrogen & electricity

54 Ecomodernist manifesto In April 2015, From 18 leading environmentalists Human welfare is central, not simplistic green dogma Technology applied with wisdom, upbeat Intensify many human activities to use less land, have lower impact Decouple human development from environmental impacts Urbanisation Limits to Growth from 1970s Nuclear fission today represents the only present-day zero-carbon technology with the demonstrated ability to meet most, if not all, of the energy demands of a modern economy. Principles for new environmentalism Barry Brook 54

55 The Nuclear Future Mature technology electricity since 1956 Increasingly competitive as fuel costs rise Environmental drivers carbon emissions & clean air Energy security drivers - EU & USA Part of future supply more widely

56 The Nuclear Future: Australia Nuclear 20-50% more expensive than coal in 2006 (UMPNER), but major electricity price rises since then Maybe 25 nuclear reactors providing 1/3 of power by 2050, and saving the equivalent of Melbourne s water supply Carbon emission, CCS or direct action costs will greatly help competitiveness Obvious part of future base-load supply in Australia if bipartisan support is achieved Ecomodernism manifesto may help

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