World Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA. Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010
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1 World Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010
2 The context: a time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears to be over but is the recovery sustainable? Oil demand & supply are becoming less sensitive to price what does this mean for future price movements? Natural gas markets are in the midst of a revolution will it herald a golden era for gas? Copenhagen Accord & G-20 subsidy reforms are key advances but do they go far enough & will they be fully implemented? China & other emerging economies will shape the global energy future where will their policy decisions lead us?
3 Three scenarios Current Policies New Policies 450 Six topics Unconventional oil Caspian oil and gas Climate change (post-copenhagen) Fossil fuel subsidies Energy poverty Renewables (electricity, transport, heat) MENA solar
4 Part 1: WEO 2010
5 Recent policy commitments, if implemented, would make a difference Mtoe World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Rest of world China OECD Global energy use grows by 36%, with non-oecd countries led by China, where demand surges by 75% accounting for almost all of the increase
6 Emerging economies dominate the growth in demand for all fuels Incremental primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario, Coal Oil Gas OECD China Rest of world Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Mtoe Demand for all types of energy increases in non-oecd countries, while demand for coal & oil declines in the OECD
7 Fossil-fuel subsidies are distorting price signals Billion dollars Iran Saudi Arabia Russia India China Egypt Venezuela Indonesia UAE Uzbekistan Iraq Kuwait Pakistan Argentina Ukraine Algeria Malaysia Thailand Bangladesh Mexico Turkmenistan South Africa Qatar Kazakhstan Libya Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by country, Electricity (generated from fossil fuels) Gas Oil Coal Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies amounted to $312 billion in 2009, down from $558 billion in 2008, with the bulk of the fall due to lower international prices
8 Renewables enter the mainstream. Renewable primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario MENA Africa 2008 India Brazil China United States European Union Mtoe The use of renewable energy triples between 2008 &, driven by the power sector where their share in electricity supply rises from 19% in 2008 to 32% in
9 .but only if there is enough government support Billion dollars (2009) Annual global support for renewables in the New Policies Scenario Biofuels Renewables-based electricity Government support remains the key driver rising from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion in but higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs also spur growth
10 The cost of renewables continues to fall Electricity generating costs of renewables in the New Policies Scenario Marine Concentrating solar power Solar PV Biomass Hydro Wind: offshore Wind: onshore Geothermal Dollars per MWh On average, the cost of onshore wind power is cut by a third between 2010 and ; the cost of PV is cut by two-thirds
11 How green is your region? Share of renewables in total electricity by region in the New Policies Scenario Brazil 2008 Canada 2008 European Union 2008 World 2008 Russia 2008 China 2008 India 2008 United States 2008 Japan 2008 MENA 2008 Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Geothermal CSP Marine 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% In, renewables supply between a quarter to two thirds of total electricity, depending on the region
12 The 450 Scenario: How do we get there now? Gt World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario 35.4 Gt Gt Scenario Gt Share of cumulative abatement between China 32% United States 18% European Union 8% India 7% Middle East 4% Russia 4% Rest of world 27% In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-
13 Part 2: Renewables in MENA
14 Mtoe MENA energy demand grows rapidly MENA primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Most of the demand continues to be met by oil and gas - renewable energy makes inroads
15 TWh and demand for electricity doubles MENA electricity generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Other renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Renewables supply 18% of electricity by, up from 3% now
16 Examples of renewable energy policies in MENA (1) Algeria 2015: 6% electricity from renewables; 100 MW wind; 170 MW CSP; 5.1 MW solar PV, 450 MW co-generation (feed-in premium for all renewable electricity and co-generation; investment tax credits for solar water heaters) Egypt 2010 (non-binding): 3% electricity from renewables 2020 (binding): 4% renewables in energy consumption (of which 20% wind); 20% non-hydro renewables (12% wind, approx MW capacity Planned New Electricity Law: priority dispatch for renewables, competitive tenders and feed-in tariff (small & medium-sized projects); investment tax credits for solar water heaters
17 Examples of renewable energy policies in MENA (2) Jordan 2015: 7% in primary energy; 600 MW wind 2020: 10% in primary energy share; MW wind, MW solar PV and CSP, solar water heaters in 50% of households Planned tax exemptions and cost subsidies United Arab Emirates 7% in electricity (in Abu Dhabi) No measures nor incentives introduced as yet
18 An ideal region for the development of concentrating solar power Dollars per MWh (2009) Concentrating Solar Power generating costs in MENA in the New Policies Scenario, Transmission Generation With storage Without storage Middle East With storage Without storage North Africa CSP electricity can be produced at costs of $100 to $135 per MWh at good sites in North Africa and Middle East in, some of the lowest in the world
19 Is exporting solar power from North Africa to Europe cost-effective? Dollars per MWh (2009) CSP generating costs in North Africa and EU power price in the New Policies Scenario 200 Transmission Generation EU wholesale electricity price Solar power could be exported from North Africa to Europe (at transmission costs of $20 to $50 per MWh) to the benefit of both regions
20 Concluding remarks WEO 2010 Recently announced policies can make a difference, but fall well short of what is needed for a secure & sustainable energy future Lack of ambition in Copenhagen has increased the cost of achieving the 2 C goal & made it less likely to happen > Unless commitments are fully implemented by 2020, it will be all but impossible to achieve the goal The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case Renewables are entering the mainstream, but long-term support is needed to boost their competitiveness Getting the prices right, by phasing-out fossil-fuel subsidies, is the single most effective measure to cut energy demand
21 Remarks on MENA renewables Ideal region for the development of solar power (but MENA also has wind and hydro resources) $250 billion investment in renewables over government support necessary private sector involvement in poorer countries fossil fuel subsidy reform will help Large scale development of renewables in MENA (essentially North Africa) and exports to Europe: CSP (plus transmission costs) not competitive by in the New Policies Scenario (competitive in 450 Scenario) Many challenges remain How can neighbouring sub-saharan African countries benefit?
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