Science of the Causes of Hypoxia Nancy Rabalais et al.
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1 Science of the Causes of Hypoxia Nancy Rabalais et al. In support of overview of diversions and hypoxia, and context for refining science needs; July 14, 2014
2 Scientific Curiosity Hypothesis Testing Management Needs: Known OR Unknown OR Not Want to Know Directed Research Programs Implement Management Strategy Improved Management Plan Monitor System Response Data Interpretation, Model Analysis & Improvement
3 Mid-summer shelfwide Monthly/bimonthly along transects C & F Deployed oxygen meters F * C * 28 N 28 N
4 Important Factors for Hypoxia Stratification Currents Winds, waves Nutrient-enhanced primary production High flux of surface carbon to the seabed Oxygen consumption exceeds oxygen resupply Directly proportional to N load N+P is most limiting, N alone more than P alone Unimportant (or Minimal) Factors for Hypoxia Deep-water oxygen minimum layer Allochthonous river carbon Ground water Wetland erosion Estuarine nutrients Mississippi River mainstem and deltaic levees Reduced suspended sediments Upwelled nutrients Climate (not as yet) (Source: N. N. Rabalais, LUMCON)
5 Coastal hypoxia is NOT natural and began to appear mostly after the 1950s
6 Linked Land, River, Ocean Ecosystem
7 25,000 Area of Mid-Summer Bottom Water Hypoxia (Dissolved Oxygen < 2.0 mg/l) Square kilometers 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Action Plan Goal 5-yr average 0 n.d. Data source: N.N. Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium, R.E. Turner, Louisiana State University Funded by: NOAA, Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research
8 Mississippi River Discharge at Tarbert Landing, 1935-July 2014 Cubic feet per second x 1000 Max Ave. Min. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
9 300% increase in N load 80% due to NO 3 - concentration 20% due to discharge DISCHARGE TN Nitrate TP Ortho-P Silicate Turner et al. 2007
10 Modified from Turner et al The relationship between nitrate+nitrate loading in May and the size of the hypoxic zones from 1985 to The 2014 predicted size is indicated with the red dot (with a 95% confidence interval.) A area of bottom-water hypoxia is much larger now than historically at the same NO 3+2 loading. Mitigating high nutrient loads will be more difficult now than in the past.
11 Turner and Rabalais, 2014 Hypoxia Forecast
12 The concentration of nitrite+nitrate (NO2+3) at Baton Rouge, La from 1997 to May The % nitrite+nitrate load of the total nitrogen load for May in the main channel of the Mississippi River. Data source: USGS. Turner and Rabalais, 2014 Hypoxia Forecast
13 Nutrient Bioassays over Broad Spatial and Temporal Scales Identify Nutrient Limitations in the Area of Hypoxia Turner and Rabalais 2013
14 Rabalais et al Courtesy of Björn Wissel, University of Regina, and Brian Fry, Griffith University. River data from US Geological Survey 30m 5m 30m 5m The terrestrial carbon signature ( 27 to 24 ) in coastal surface waters parallels peaks in river discharge, and organic carbon offshore ( 22 to 18 ) represents an atmospheric source. The N source of particulate organic matter along the C transect is primarily from the river ( 4 to 10 ) and subsequently incorporated into in situ production offshore.
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16 Successfully Coupled FVCOM-WASP Bottom Meter C6C 2002 Justić and Wang, 2013
17 FVCOM Circulation Model and Comparison with Imagery Excellent Results Wang and Justić, 2009
18 Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of An Update by the EPA Mexico Science Advisory Board Supports and Strengthens the Science N loading drives timing and extent of hypoxia P loads significant in watershed and Gulf of Mexico HAP recommends dual N & P reduction strategy AND..... Upper MSR and Ohio-TN sub-basins account for the 84% nitrate-n and 64% total P flux to Gulf Tile-drained, corn-soybean landscapes very N leaky The HAP recommends targeting the tile-drained Corn Belt region of the MARB for N and P reductions in both surface and sub-surface waters.
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21 Surface Trajectory Modeling in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill (May 29 June 25, 2010) Justic and Wang (in preparation) NASA Aqua MODIS May 25, 2010
22 Caernarvon diversion Posthurricane Land-towater conversion Reference area W Pt a la Hache Naomi
23 Alliance refinery 55 square miles of wetlands lost Caernarvon flow path 12 Feb 2009
24 Davis Pond Diversion L. Pontchartrain Post December 31, 2003 January 11, 2004 Diversion L. Cataouatche L. Salvador L des Allemands L 40 g/l chlorophyll in January vs long-term average of 5 10 g/l Barataria Bay SW Pass of Mississippi River
25 Lake Pontchartrain Bloom Aerial Images Photographs by R.E. Turner, LSU
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