North Dakota Pipeline Authority North Dakota Petroleum Council Annual Meeting September 20, 2012 Medora, ND

Transcription

1 North Dakota Pipeline Authority North Dakota Petroleum Council Annual Meeting September 20, 2012 Medora, ND

2 2 Natural Gas Study

3 North Dakota Type Curves* *Based on the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study 3

4 4 Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) Increasing Over Time High Reservoir Pressure Bubble Point Pressure Horizontal Well Completed in Target Reservoir Low Reservoir Pressure

5 Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) Increasing Over Time High Reservoir Pressure Youngest - Original Reservoir Pressure Bubble Point Pressure Oldest Entire Reservoir Below Bubble Point Low Reservoir Pressure 5

6 Production curve for the Bakken and Three Forks, US Williston Basin. Source: BENTEK Energy July 2012 Report

7 Only horizontal wells shown on map

8 1980 s-90 s Bakken Development 8

9 9 GOR 3,000 CUFT/BBL GOR 1,000 CUFT/BBL

10 September 2012 Forecast Assumptions 10

11 September 2012 Forecast Assumptions 11

12 North Dakota Crude Oil 12

13 Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. 13 Today

14 Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. 14 Case 1 Today

15 2 1 Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the Williston Basin *Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines 15

16 16 25,000 BOPD 210,000 BOPD 68,000 BOPD 145,000 BOPD

17 17 Williston Basin Oil Transportation July 2009 July 2010 July 2011 July 2012

18 Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes 18

19 BNSF Crude Rail Locations Existing 1) Dore Musket - Unit 2) Trenton Savage Manifest/Unit 3) Williston Red River Supply - Manifest 4) Tioga Hess - Unit 5) Manitou Plains - Unit 6) Ross Bakken Transload - Manifest 7) Stanley EOG - Unit 8) Minot ND Port Services- Manifest 9) Zap/Republic Basin Transload - Unit 10) Eland BOE - Unit 11) Dickinson Centennial - Manifest 12) Gascoyne Enserco Manifest/Unit 13) Epping Rangeland Unit 14) Berthold Enbridge Unit (Full Serv Q1/13) Planned 1) Fryburg Great Northern - Unit 19

20 20 CP Crude Rail Locations Existing 1) Stampede US Development 2) Donnybrook - Centennial 3) New Town Dakota Plains 4) Van Hook US Development

21 Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. 21 Today

22 2 1 Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the Williston Basin *Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines 22

23 Crude Oil Gathering 23

24 North Dakota Crude Gathering February 2012 Data 24

25 North Dakota Crude Gathering Williams Mountrail McKenzie Dunn Grey = Truck Color = Pipe 25

26 North Dakota Crude Gathering Williams Mountrail Pie Charts Truck = Red Pipeline = Blue McKenzie Dunn 26

27 Pipeline Challenges Outside ND 27

28 28

29 29

30 Pipeline Challenges Outside ND 30

31 Source: Jodi Quinnell, BENTEK Energy - Sept 12, 2012 Crude Awakening

32 Strengthening Landowner Relations 32

33 Natural Gas 33

34 Williston Basin Gas Production Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning. 34

35 ND Gas Facility/System Intake 35

36 36 ND Gas Facility/System Intake Five New/Expanded Plants in Next months ONEOK Stateline I & II ONEOK Garden Creek II Hess Tioga Plains Ross

37 ND Gas Plant Capacity 37

38 May 2012 Gas Plant Volumes 38

39 First Time Gas Sales Per Month 39

40 ND Gas Gathering Statistics 40

41 ND Natural Gas Pipelines Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Alliance Pipeline Northern Border Pipeline 2.37 BCFD 1.51 BCFD 41

42 ND Gas Plant NGL Production 42

43 North Dakota NGL Potential Assumptions No Flaring 8 Gal/MCF All liquids extracted 43

44 Case 1: ND NGL Potential* 13.51% 9.55% 6.98% 28.33% 41.64% *Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study 44

45 May 2012 Bakken/TF NGL s Assumptions May Bakken Gas 579,000 MCFD 8 Gal/MCF (8/42)*579,000 = 110,286 BPD NGL Barrels Per Day *This is an illustration only and should not be considered official industry data 45

46 Moving Future NGL Volumes Transportation Options Trucking Regionally Rail Transportation Vantage Pipeline (Ethane) ONEOK Bakken Pipeline (Y- Grade) Alliance Pipeline (Rich Gas) New Pipeline Infrastructure?? 46

47 47 Natural Gas Study Transmission Future

48 Source: BENTEK Energy July 2012 Report

49 49

50 Full 2.5 Hours Replay: 50

51 51 Contact Information North Dakota Pipeline Authority 600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND Phone: (701) Fax: (701) Websites: