Japan a future market for solar. fuels

Transcription

1 Japan a future market for solar Dr Keith Lovegrove Head Solar Thermal, IT Power Group Australian Clean Energy Summit Sydney 28 July 2016 fuels

2 Concentrating Solar Power growing strongly - about 1 decade behind PV end 2014 end 2014 end

3 Proven Thermal Energy Storage is CSP s big competitive advantage Modelling for a molten salt tower plant at Longreach Qld 3 Background pic, Andasol 3 courtesy Ferrostaal Thermal storage is integrated improves output, little or no extra cost Two tank molten salt is proven / standard (62% plants in Spain) A Higher temperature range makes it cheaper

4 4 Solar Reserve s Crescent Dunes project a recent highlight Nevada, north of Las Vegas 110MW e with 10 hours molten salt energy storage Biggest ever tower system Fully operational from early 2016

5 5 But E' doesn t just mean Electricity Meeting COP21 climate goals implies decarbonising all energy by 2050 Derived from Australian Energy Statistics 2015

6 6 But E' doesn t just mean Electricity Meeting COP21 climate goals implies decarbonising all energy by 2050 See renewable-energy-optionsfor-australian-industrial-gasusers/ Derived from Australian Energy Statistics 2015

7 7 Australia needs innovative new exports in a low carbon world? Australian Exports and Imports

8 Figure taken from Tony Meier presentation, Newcastle April Leveraging the technology of solar concentrators for: Petcoke + H 2 O slurry ceramic cavity Concentrated Solar Power syngas H 2 O nozzle quartz window

9 9 To produce possible future fuels Hydrogen (H 2 ); combustion to pure water. difficult to achieve a practical energy density for storage or transport. Methane (CH 4 ); natural gas. Liquefaction is costly but practical and now proven for international trade. Methanol (CH 3 OH); the simplest hydrocarbon liquid, carcinogenic and has a lower energy density than current oil based fuels. DME Di Methyl Ether (CH 3 OCH 3 ); elevated pressure to maintain as a liquid, no carcinogen. used for transport relatively easily. Ammonia (NH 3 ); a practical liquid vector for use of hydrogen made with nitrogen from the air. Caustic risk. Synthesised Drop in fuels ; meet existing standards for diesel, gasoline and aviation fuels, existing infrastructure can continue seamlessly.

10 Slide from Tony Meier, Newcastle April

11 Slide from Tony Meier, Newcastle April

12 12 Australia s concentrating solar chemistry history Ammonia cracking at ANU Steam reforming of methane at CSIRO Plus new work at Uni of Adelaide

13 Australia and Japan have a large energy trade 13

14 Japan and Australia compared Japan Australia Population 128 million 22 million Electricity Installed cap. 285GW 49GW Land area 0.38 million sq km 7.7 million sq km Primary energy 22,000 PJ/a 5,800 PJ/a Direct Normal Irradiation Around 1100kWh/m 2 /year Around 2300kWh/m 2 /year (10.5MJ/M 2 /day) (22.7MJ/m 2 /day) Net energy flow importer exporter

15 15 Primary energy sources in Japan 22,000PJ/a Virtually all energy is imported: World s largest LNG importer, second largest coal importer, and third largest net oil importer. Post Fukishima, nuclear dropped to zero by 2013, will it grow again? A very large dependence on oil from middle East Strong concerns about energy security Push for PV, but a long time to any real contribution A continuing commitment to reducing GHG emissions

16 A history of Japanese investment in Australian Oil and gas projects 16 Project Ichthys LNG Project, Browse Basin, Western Australia Japanese equity Inpex, 66% Japanese electric utilities: 2.74%. Pluto LNG Project Tokyo Gas 5% and Kansai Electric 5% Timor Sea Joint Petroleum Development Area Inpex, Tokyo Gas, and TEPCO, combined 20% Prelude LNG Inpex 17.5% acquired from Shell in Darwin LNG Inpex 11.3%, TEPCO 6%, and Tokyo Gas 3% Wheatstone LNG Japanese electric & gas utilities: 9.5% Browse LNG Van Gogh and Ravensworth oil fields Timor Sea Joint Development Area Mitsubishi and Mitsui 14.7% in LNG terminal. 16% in East Browse and 8% in West Browse. Inpex: 47.5% of Van Gogh, 28.5% of Ravensworth Inpex: 35% of Kitan oil field NW Shelf Mutineer and Exeter fields JX Nippon: 25% Japan's limited hydrocarbon reserves and its need to secure energy imports are the incentives the government uses to support upstream Japanese companies in their quest to purchase overseas oil and natural gas equity. (eia)

17 17 Japanese policy initiatives towards hydrogen In FY 2012, invested approximately $240 million in fuel cell and hydrogen energy programs plan to sell two million fuel cell electric vehicles by 2025, and install 1,000 hydrogen fueling stations. goal of fuel cells powering 2 million homes by Major hydrogen imports expected around

18 18 USD 20m New Energy (Hydrogen) Carrier Project started April 2013 Likely vectors for moving hydrogen internationally Liquid H 2 Toluene cycle Ammonia Kawasaki Heavy Industries favour liquid H2 but electricity requirements >> LNG Chiyoda corp working on reversible hydrogenation of Toluene but small payload in tankers Ammonia is already manufactured and traded on a global scale gaining increasing attention

19 19 Kawasaki Heavy Industries Australian connection Progressing plans for Latrobe valley coal gasification + CCS for hydrogen production in Australia

20 Europe s Desertec vision for the future? HVDC links across Mediteranean are a few 100kms, analogous to Basslink. Who would connect Australia 6000km to Japan??????

21 Australia s Desertec solar fuels to Japan and others DNI map from SolarGIS JAPAN All of Japan s primary energy from a combined area 350km x 350km Australia has >100% more solar intensity and available land Energy cost of tanker transport < 2% for energy dense fluid

22 CSIRO lead Solar Fuels Road Map for Australia 3 year project to develop a credible, industry validated road map Identifies key issues and what a staged development looks like Current status, potential and challenges/barriers Examines markets and product opportunities Maps out research, development and demonstration priorities to move technologies towards commercialisation Includes PV / Electrolysis assessment as reference case Completed end 2015, Available at:

23 Results from Levelised Cost of Fuel calculations (2020) Process Conventional crude oil at $100/bbl Solar gasification of brown coal Solar reforming of natural gas Solar gasification of biomass Solar water splitting Input fuel cost Solar product gas LCOF Final fuel LCOF Technology readiness $16/GJ $20/GJ $0.56/L Current technology GHG intensity High $1/GJ $8/GJ $15/GJ $0.42/L Medium High $8.4/GJ $10/GJ $17/GJ 0.48/L High Medium $8/GJ $9.8/GJ $17/GJ $0.48/L Medium Zero-Low Zero $29-35/GJ $58/GJ $7/kg H 2 Low Zero PV Electrolysis Zero $94/GJ $11/kg High Zero 2020 solar field costs estimated at $173/m 2 for heliostats. 6.4% discount rate, 30 year amortisation

24 Actions to support a future Solar Fuels industry Concentrating Solar Fuels R&D should be a priority and should target Reactor lifetimes Recuperation of heat from reactants to maximise efficiency Low cost underground storage of hydrogen / syngas mixtures State mandates for biofuels could be generalised to include all renewable fuels Renewable Energy Target could be expanded or replicated to include renewable fuels A pipeline of Australian CSP deployment is needed to build capability and supply chain that can be leveraged for a CSF industry in future Bilateral government negotiations with Japan and others could establish international renewable fuels trade

25 25 Include value scale factors in a true all energy RET? Time Proces Proces Process Process Process Liquid Pipeline Electricity interval s heat s heat heat 100 heat 200 heat transport injectable ºC -500ºC 500+ºC fuel gas 40ºC 100ºC 5pm - 9pm pm-7am am-5pm Not all MWh s are equal - Support policies should differentiate the value of different energy types and times of delivery (indicative example of possible scale factors for discussion only)

26 26 Conclusions Japan is Australia s number one customer for energy exports. Japan has major initiatives on sustainable hydrogen as a fuel. Australia s export income is very dependant on coal in a carbon constrained world. Japan s manufacturing base and history of investment in Australia combined with superior Australian solar resources is a good combination. The cost of transporting energy dense chemical fuel is easily justified by the extra level of solar resource in Australia. Deployment of Concentrating Solar for Power is a precursor to a future Concentrating Solar Fuels industry. An Australia Japan partnership on solar fuels makes sense.