MINING in a CHANGING CLIMATE Vulnerability, Impacts & Adaptation

Transcription

1 MINING in a CHANGING CLIMATE Vulnerability, Impacts & Adaptation Sudbury 2007 Mining and the Environment Tina Neale Adaptation & Impacts Research Division October 22, 2007

2 Presentation Outline How is the climate changing? What will that mean for mining? What can we do? What is adaptation? Adaptation Resources Research and Capacity DRAFT Page 2 March 11, 2008

3 Is the Climate Changing? Yes Scientific evidence is unequivocal (IPCC, 2007) Human GHG emissions driving climate change Reducing emissions will slow the rate of climate change Even if we halt emissions, impacts of climate change will be experienced for centuries to come DRAFT Page 3 March 11, 2008

4 How is the Climate Changing? TEMPERATURE Observed - Historical 1.3 C increase in average temp Min increasing more than Max 8 fewer frost days during compared to Scenarios - Future Increases of 3 C to 5 C Spring warming up to 10 C in N Greater in winter than summer Changes in freeze-thaw Warm Nights Temperature Trends (Vincent and Mekis, 2006) Cold Nights DRAFT Page 4 March 11, 2008

5 How is the Climate Changing? PRECIPITATION Observed - Historical 12% increase precip. in south Small to moderate events Increase in % of precipitation falling as rain instead of snow Increase in heavy snowfall in North Days with Rain Precipitation Trends (Vincent and Mekis, 2006) Scenarios - Future Up to 25% increase in average annual precip in north and east Larger change in extremes Decline in snow depth except for Arctic coast Return periods decrease by 1/2 Very Wet Days DRAFT Page 5 March 11, 2008

6 Projected change in risk of intense precipitation (work in progress) Risk increases by a factor of ~ two Increased Probability Decreased Probability Source: Jiafeng Wang and Xuebin Zhang, 2007 DRAFT Page 6 March 11, 2008

7 How is the Climate Changing? STREAMFLOW Observed Historical Decreased annual mean stream flow Increases in spring flows, decreases in other months Earlier break-up of river ice and earlier spring freshet Scenarios Future Earlier snowmelt and increases in freshet peaks Decreased low flows in summer Decreased Great Lakes levels. Simulated Discharge (cumecs) Simulated Discharge (cumecs) Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 A Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov bas e90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2 Whiteman Ck - CSIRO B Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2 DRAFT Page 7 March 11, 2008 Hydrological Scenarios Okanagan Basin, BC (Merritt et al., 2005)

8 How is the Climate Changing? FROZEN GROUND Observed - Historical Increased permafrost temp. Decreased permafrost extent Increased active layer depth Decreased extent of seasonally frozen ground Delayed ground freezing by 5 days. Scenarios - Future 30 to 50% increase in Arctic active layer depth Shifts in permafrost zones 20-30% reduction extent Changes in soil moisture DRAFT Page 8 March 11, 2008

9 How is the Climate Changing? ICE & EXTREME EVENTS Observed Historical Decreased sea ice extent by 300,000km 2 /decade Increased evapotranspiration and soil drying trend Likely increase in intense tropical storms since 1970 Scenarios Future 12 to 42% decrease in NH sea ice extent Decreased summer soil moisture Decreased number of storms but increase in intense events DRAFT Page 9 March 11, 2008

10 Frequency of Natural Disasters in Canada 1990 to 2005 (PSPEPC, 2006) 6-year period DRAFT Page 10 March 11, 2008

11 What does it mean for Mining? Climate-sensitive infrastructure and activities Structural stability and integrity (snow loads, permafrost, etc.) Dam design, tailings management (changes in hydrology) Transportation (ice roads, ocean transport routes, Great Lakes) Site drainage, effluent dilution (intensity, timing, quantity) Need to adapt! DRAFT Page 11 March 11, 2008

12 What does it mean for Mining? INFRASTRUCTURE Infrastructure design based on Historical climate and extreme events Socially-acceptable risk (100 year flood) Increased risk of damage, weathering Design for observed trends & scenarios Small change in extremes = big change in damage! DRAFT Page 12 March 11, 2008

13 Small increase in EXTREME equals Large increase in DAMAGE Coleman (2002): Insurance Australia Group, building claims as a function of peak gust speed. DRAFT Page 13 March 11, 2008

14 Dams & Tailings Management Dam failures due to extreme weather Bangs Lake MI (2005) Heavy rain Riverview FL (2004) Hurricane Invermere BC (1986) rapid snowmelt Need to design and plan for impacts Intense rainfall Overtopping, erosion, slumping, failure Freeze-thaw events Local flooding, rain-on-snow events Changes in frozen ground/structure stability Drought re-oxidation of tailings DRAFT Page 14 March 11, 2008

15 Transportation Open Arctic shipping routes Declining Great Lakes water levels Decreased ship loads, longer season? Shorter ice road season All-season roads, air transport, shipping Alternatives may increase GHGs DRAFT Page 15 March 11, 2008

16 What Can We Do? Continue to reduce emissions Adapt to the changing climate Climate is no longer static Must plan and design accordingly DRAFT Page 16 March 11, 2008

17 What is Adaptation? Adaptation is adjustment to experienced or expected climate change No Regrets co-benefits, benefit now and future Reactionary adapt after impact May work for easily modified functions Could be costly Planned & Anticipatory adapt in advance of impacts Monitoring (trends in rainfall intensity, frequency, amount) Climate change scenarios and impacts modeling (hydrology) EIA Effects of Environment on the Project Adaptive Management responding to trends, forecasts, new science DRAFT Page 17 March 11, 2008

18 Adaptation Resources Canadian Atmospheric Hazards Network Assess vulnerability to current climate Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network Assess risks posed by future climate National data and information resources Regional nodes under development Others (provincial, academic, NGO) DRAFT Page 18 March 11, 2008

19 Research and Capacity Adaptation Mitigation Sustainable Development synergies Adaptation Guide and municipal case studies Potential for mining sector case Risk Management and Adaptive Management approaches Learn to work with What If? Develop awareness and capacity: academia, consultants, engineers, planners, regulators, stakeholders DRAFT Page 19 March 11, 2008

20 Thank You Tina Neale Adaptation & Impacts Research Division Environment Canada DRAFT Page 20 March 11, 2008