The New Era... LNG Fuel for Vessels

Transcription

1 The New Era... LNG Fuel for Vessels Ship Operations Co-Op Program SOCP, Star Center Dania Beach, FL 12 April 2012 Presenter John Hatley PE Americas VP Ship Power Wartsila North America Cell

2 Key questions Natural gas is great, but where do I get it? Where is the infrastructure and can I depend on gas At what price? It s the chicken and egg dilemma

3 Agenda What? US Marine Gas Market Why? Forecast & Known Drivers Coincide Clean, Secure, Affordable, Available How? Recent Natural Gas Vessels Logistics & Distribution USCG Regulations Conclusions Why not Peaking Plants? Chart Course for Gas

4 Agenda What? US Marine Gas Market Why? Forecast & Known Drivers Coincide Clean, Secure, Affordable, Available How? Recent Natural Gas Vessels Logistics & Distribution USCG Regulations Conclusions Why not Peaking Plants? Chart Course for Gas

5 Step Change: Shell Wartsila Co-operation News 8 September Shell brings sustainability to LNG supply, distribution, and logistics enabling rapid adoption of natural gas certainty promotes investment

6 How much does LNG cost? Source: Zeus LNG Fuel Seminar, August 31, 2011 Houston; Fleet Operators Perspective: Issues the LNG Industry Must Address, David Moseley, Assist Secretary Washington State DOT LNG x 1.7 = Diesel Gallon Equivalent = $1.32 x 1.7 = $ 2.24 gallon diesel equivalent = savings ( $ $2.24 ) = $ 1.23 per gallon LNG captures compelling fuel savings

7 Price Comparisons Past & Future 2008 Dollars / million Btu 25 FORECAST Crude oil to natural gas future price disparity expected to expand Long Term gas is a bargain oil escalates ever higher Source: DNV Greener Shipping in North America; February 2011, EIA ; adopted by JFH 7 Wärtsilä

8 Gas Prices Now $ per mm BTU / ( 75,000/ (1,000,000 ) ) = $ / Gallon LNG LNG x 1.7 = Diesel Gallon Equivalent = $0.28 x 1.7 = $ 0.48 gallon diesel equivalent Key: large margin spread between gas & ultra low sulfur diesel = supportive business case for LNG liqui-faction + logistics transport + profit 8 Wärtsilä

9 Henry Hub Spot Gas Price Source: EIA Oil & Gas, Shale Gas and the Outlook for US Natural Gas Markets and Global Gas Resources, OECD Presentation by Richard Newell, EIA Administrator, 21 June 2011; Paris Energy Information Agency EIA 3 Decade forecast $7 9 $/mmbtu = bargain fuel! 9 Wärtsilä

10 Agenda What? US Marine Gas Market Why? Forecast & Known Drivers Coincide Clean, Secure, Affordable, Available How? Recent Natural Gas Vessels Logistics & Distribution USCG Regulations Conclusions Why not Peaking Plants? Chart Course for Gas

11 How much US Shale Gas Production? 1,200 % gains over past decade, now 25% Total US Production 11 Wärtsilä Source: EIA Oil & Gas, Shale Gas and the Outlook for US Natural Gas Markets and Global Gas Resources, OECD Presentation by Richard Newell, EIA Administrator, 21 June 2011; Paris

12 Where s the Shale Gas? US is Saudi Arabia of natural gas 200 years supply

13 Geographical Emission Constraints Source: EPA tightens Emission Control Area ECA within 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone EEZ August 2012

14 North American Emission Control Area ECA Joint Proposal US, Canada March 2009: 200 nm off coasts France co-proposes Islands off Newfoundland Target: Nitrogen Oxides N0x, Sulfur Oxides S0x, Particulate Matter PM Enforceable August July Fuel Sulfur 1.0% (10,000 ppm) targets PM, S0x reduction 2015 Fuel Sulfur 0.1% ( 1,000 ppm ) 2016 New Engines operating these areas must use emissions controls targets achieving 80% reduction in N0x ECA encapsulates US, any flag, low sulfur fuel switching or exhaust cleaning devices enforceable August 2012 Source: US EPA, Designation of North American Emission Control Area to Reduce Emissions from Ships 14 Wärtsilä

15 Caribbean ECA Expansion IMO Marine Environmental Protection Committee MEPC 62 Summer 2011 anticipating action Target: Nitrogen Oxides N0x, Sulfur Oxides S0x, Particulate Matter PM Into Force as early as Fuel Sulfur 0.1% (1,000 ppm) targets PM, S0x reduction 2016 New Engines operating these areas must use emissions controls achieving 80% reduction in N0x ECA, any flag ships, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, 2014 Source: US EPA, Program Update: Proposal of Emission Control Area to Reduce Emissions from Ships in the US Caribbean 15 Wärtsilä

16 IMO vs. ECA Fuel Sulfur Standards Subject to fuel availability 2018 study, may be extended to 2025 Emission Control Area ECA fuel sulfur standards are imposed on an accelerated timeline with much tougher requirements than Global Source: US EPA, Designation of North American Emission Control Area to Reduce Emissions from Ships 16 Wärtsilä

17 EPA Category 1,2 Engine Emission Standards Source: US EPA, Power Point Presentation, EPA s New Program to Control Pollution from Marine Diesel Engines, June 5, 2008 EPA Emissions Progressively Tighten tough reductions 2014 as Tier 3 further tightening 2016 Tier 4

18 Agenda What? US Marine Gas Market Why? Forecast & Known Drivers Coincide Clean, Secure, Affordable, Available How? Recent Natural Gas Vessels Logistics & Distribution USCG Regulations Conclusions Why not Peaking Plants? Chart Course for Gas

19 Dual-Fuel Natural Gas Engines 20DF 6L20DF 1.0 MW 8L20DF 9L20DF 34DF 6L34DF 50DF 9L34DF 12V34DF 16V34DF 20V34DF 6L50DF 8L50DF 9L50DF 12V50DF 16V50DF Father & grandson power range targets emissions sensitive ECA coast and port area vessels 18V50DF MW

20 August 4, 2011 Newbuild LNG Dd Ddd Ddd Ddd Harvey Gulf Board Approves $160 Million Announces first 2 US Flag OSV Dddon LNG Targeting US GOM within ECADd

21 3 Feb 2012 Newbuild LNG Additional vessel orders confirms leadership entry 21 Wärtsilä

22 Small Scale LNG Distribution 22 Wärtsilä

23 Hub & Spoke Logistics 23 Wärtsilä

24 Container Intermodal LNG Solutions 24 Wärtsilä

25 Vessel Solutions 25 Wärtsilä

26 April USCG Norway LNG Summit DNV & Wartsila jointly sponsor USCG WA DC headquarters staff on LNG technology advances for safe marine propulsion. 26 Wärtsilä

27 USCG LNG Tour April st Day DNV Headquarters 2 nd Day DNV Headquarters DNV CEO Henrich Madsen welcomes USCG/ Wartsila technical Sessions DNV VP Segment Director Tankers Jan Koren chairs LNG sessions 3 rd Day Bergen Viking Energy 4 th Day Fitjar Wartsila Design Wartsila tour of LNG powered OSV focus fueling safety Wartsila experts share LNG design elements experience Wartsila trusted advisor role with key USCG regulators 27 Wärtsilä

28 US Coast Guard Approach IMO Guidelines are the baseline standard Case by case design approval until rules are incorporated in the CFR Washington State Ferries GFS design approved in concept TOTE Ro/Ro GFS retrofit design approved in concept Establish equivalent level of safety to conventional vessels 28

29 USCG Design Approval Process Design Basis Agreement CG-521 Plan Review - MSC Inspection - OCMI During Construction Sea Trials Certificate of Inspection Alternative Compliance Program Initial certification conducted by USCG ACP may be allowed later in the vessel s life 29

30 USCG Design Basis Agreement Submit pertinent documentation to COMMANDANT (CG- 521) that shows how your design meets the criteria in the IMO Guidelines Deviations will require supporting documentation The Design Basis Agreement forms the umbrella of applicable design standards, and lists exceptions or additions to the IMO Guidelines for your design. Goal Time: 30 Day Review 30 Wärtsilä

31 USCG Plan Review Will ensure the design is in line with the Design Basis Agreement The Marine Safety Center (MSC) will conduct the plan review of your detailed design 30 Day Review 31 Wärtsilä

32 USCG Contact Information Office of Design and Engineering Standards COMMANDANT (CG-521) LT Nick Woessner (202) Tim Meyers (202)

33 Agenda What? US Marine Gas Market Why? Forecast & Known Drivers Coincide Clean, Secure, Affordable, Available How? Recent Natural Gas Vessels Logistics & Distribution USCG Regulations Conclusions Why not Peaking Plants? Chart Course for Gas

34 Where are the Peak Shaving Facilities? LNG Peak Shaving Satellite LNG Peaking LNG Import Terminal peak shaving + peak satellites = dozens LNG sites Source: EIA Oil & Gas, Natural Gas Division, Gas Transportation System, December Wärtsilä

35 What does a Peak Shaving Plant Look like? Sunk CAPEX investment idle majority year awaiting cold snap potential marine LNG source priced near variable cost 35 Wärtsilä

36 LNG Liquifier Technologies Source: GTI Small Scale Liquefier Development: nergysyst/liquefieroverviewbrief1205new.pdf... Technology advances in small scale liquifaction intensifies competition for market adoption = fundamental supply shift 36 Wärtsilä

37 Small Scale LNG Development Source: GTI Small Scale Liquefier Development: Adopted by JFH CAPEX $ per Gallon LNG Day Historic Negative Scaling Effect? Small Scale Lego Block Liquifaction Conventional Mega Scale Liquifaction Plant Daily LNG Production Gallons Profound breakthrough Lego Block liquifaction Capital Efficient small scale plants enable LNG site distribution = promotes broad LNG availability 37 Wärtsilä

38 5 US Game Changers EPA Engine Emission Standard Controls US is Saudi Arabia of shale gas swims in centuries of supply EPA Emissions Control Area ECA tightens emissions Aug 2012 Natural Gas bargain price EPA Fuel Standards tighter and faster than Global 5 gas drivers shale supply + 3 EPA mandates + bargain prices Source: EIA March 2010 Shale Gas Plays Lower 48 States LR Fairplay

39 Drivers: Fuel Cost and Tighter Emissions EPA Mandated Emissions & Fuel Restrictions Source: US EPA web sites, Hatley summary Geographic emissions bubble encapsulates US/Canada Tight sulfur limits stress supply After treatment burdens diesels Paradigm shift to clean, abundant, available, affordable, American gas (national security) displaces distillate 1 st on economics, 2 nd on emissions 39 Wärtsilä

40 Key questions Time for Chicken Omelets Natural gas is great, but where do I get it? Where is the infrastructure and can I depend on gas At what price? It s the chicken and egg dilemma