Drivers of future U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: insights from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011

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1 Drivers of future U.S. carbon dioxide emissions: insights from the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Global Climate Change Research Seminar Electric Power Research Institute, Deputy Administrator May 25, 2011 Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Topics Reference case and its sectoral underpinnings Sensitivity analyses Conclusion EPRI Climate Change Research Seminar, May 25,

3 Primary energy use by fuel, U.S. energy use quadrillion Btu History Projections Petroleum Renewables Biofuels Natural gas 20 Nuclear Coal Seminar, May 25, 2011 EPRI Climate Change Research 3

4 U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by sector and fuel, 2005 and 2035: AEO2011 Reference case U.S. carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons ,770 5,996 6,311 Petroleum Natural gas Coal 2000 Total carbon dioxide emissions Electricity Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric power EPRI Climate Change Research Seminar, May 25,

5 Electricity 5

6 While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate of growth has slowed percent growth (3-year rolling average) History 2009 Period Annual Growth 1950s s s s s Projections

7 The Reference case electricity mix in AEO2011 gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, with generation from natural gas rising 40% and renewables rising 75% electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year 6 History 2009 Projections % Coal 43% 2 25% Natural gas 23% 1 10% Renewable 14% 20% Nuclear 17% 0 1% 1% Oil and other

8 Additions to electricity generation capacity, U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts Other Hydropower Coal Nuclear Natural gas/oil

9 Transportation 9

10 Most transport fuel growth is in light and heavy duty vehicles U.S. transportation energy consumption million barrels per day oil equivalent History 2009 Projections % Light-duty vehicles 64% 4 16% 10% Air 9% 4% Marine 4% 0 2% % Rail Heavy-duty vehicles 20% 10

11 Greater fuel efficiency and increased reliance on biofuels limit growth in petroleum use and imports U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History % 10% 34% Projections Biofuels including imports Natural gas plant liquids Liquids from coal Petroleum supply 11% 13% 3% 32% % Net petroleum imports 41%

12 AEO 2011 includes 57 sensitivity cases, many of which have significant implications for projected carbon dioxide emissions Electricity sector policies Possible impacts of pending regulatory actions to address issues other than GHG emissions No sunset and extended policies No sunset looks at extension of existing energy tax expenditures, many of which have been repeatedly extended in the past Extended policies considers a scenario of future policy action under current laws Possible/pending fuel economy standards Light duty vehicles MY 2017 thru MY 2025 Heavy duty vehicles Economic growth and oil price scenarios 12

13 AEO2011 sensitivities surrounding pending EPA regulations affecting electricity generation 13

14 Electricity generation by fuel in nine cases, 2009 and 2035 U.S. electricity generation trillion kilowatthours 2009 Reference Transport Rule Mercury MACT 20 Transport Rule Mercury MACT 5 Retrofit Required 20 Retrofit Required 5 Low Gas Price Low Gas Price Retrofit Required 20 Low Gas Price Retrofit Required 5 GHG Price Economywide Other Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Coal Gas + CCS Coal + CCS

15 Carbon dioxide emissions from the electric power sector in nine cases, 2009, 2025, and 2035 U.S. electric power sector carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons 2009 Reference Transport Rule Mercury MACT Transport Rule Mercury MACT 5 Retrofit Required 20 Retrofit Required 5 Low Gas Price Low Gas Price Retrofit Required 20 Low Gas Price Retrofit Required 5 GHG Price Economywide 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 15

16 Electric power sector carbon dioxide emissions in 4 AEO2011 sensitivity cases, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons Transport Rule Mercury MACT 5 High Shale EUR Reference % below 2005 level GHG Price Economywide Low Gas Price Retrofit Required ~

17 and, recent events remind us about potential nuclear retirements 17

18 Carbon dioxide emissions change in AEO2010 nuclear retirement case, U.S. carbon dioxide emission change from reference case million metric tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

19 No Sunset, Extended Policies, and Expanded Codes and Standards sensitivities 19

20 Residential delivered energy consumption per capita in four cases, U.S. residential energy use per capita index, 1990=1 1.2 History 2009 Projections Technology Best Available Technology Reference High Technology

21 Commercial delivered energy consumption per capita in four cases, U.S. commercial energy use per capita index, 1990=1 1.2 History 2009 Projections 2010 Technology 1.0 Reference 0.8 Best Available Technology High Technology

22 Total energy consumption in the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases, U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu Reference No Sunset 100 Extended Policies ~

23 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the No Sunset and Extended Policies cases, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons Reference No Sunset Extended Policies % below 2005 level ~

24 Fuel Economy Sensitivities 24

25 Combined CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles in three cases, new light-duty vehicle fuel economy miles per gallon 60 CAFE CAFE3 Reference

26 Total transportation energy consumption U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu Reference CAFE3 CAFE ~

27 Total transportation carbon dioxide emissions U.S. transportation carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons 2,100 2,000 Reference 1,900 CAFE3 1,800 CAFE6 1,700 1,600 1,500 ~ 17% below 2005 level

28 On-road fuel economy of new medium and heavy heavy-duty vehicles in two cases, new vehicle fuel economy miles per gallon gasoline equivalent 10 Fuel Economy Standards 8 Medium heavy-duty vehicles 6 Heavy heavy-duty vehicles Reference

29 Carbon dioxide emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in two cases, U.S. heavy-duty vehicle carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons Reference Fuel Economy Standards % below 2005 level ~

30 Economic growth affects energy use and emissions in all sectors 30

31 Total energy consumption in three macroeconomic growth cases, U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu High Economic Growth 115 Reference Low Economic Growth ~

32 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in three macroeconomic growth cases, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth ~ % below 2005 level 32

33 Change in delivered energy consumption for industrial subsectors in three cases, change in U.S. industrial energy use quadrillion Btu Food products Iron and steel Reference Low Economic Growth High Economic Growth Paper products Bulk chemicals Agriculture, construction, mining Other manufacturing Petroleum refineries

34 Oil price sensitivities 34

35 Total energy consumption in three AEO2011 oil price cases, U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price ~

36 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in three AEO2011 oil price cases, U.S. carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price % below 2005 level ~

37 Summary Slow growth in Reference case energy-related CO 2 emissions, which remain below the 2005 level through 2026 Significant potential for emissions below the Reference case In the absence of GHG-directed policies, policies and fuel prices affecting the generation mix, and assumptions about economic growth and oil prices are key sources of uncertainty in projected emissions over the next decade The projected pace of improvement in end-use efficiency becomes increasingly important over a 25-year horizon Even without enactment of GHG-directed policies, U.S. emissions over the next decade could follow paths similar to those identified in analyses of cap-andtrade proposals considered in the last Congress Continued emissions decline over a longer time horizon seems more difficult without GHG-directed policies 37

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