Welcome. Future Energy Scenarios Electricity Supply Andy Dobbie & team. System Operator

Transcription

1 Welcome Future Energy Scenarios 218 Electricity Supply Andy Dobbie & team System Operator

2 FES 218

3 What we will cover today Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 218 overview Key insights Overview of installed capacity Capacity projections for some of the different technologies Generation output Interconnectors and storage How to stay involved Q&A

4 Prosperity Level of decentralisation FES 217 to FES 218 Consumer Evolution Power Community Two Degrees Renewables Steady Progression State Slow Two Degrees Progression Speed of decarbonisation Green ambition Prosperity

5 Key insights Low carbon technologies will grow at pace Markets will need to adapt New business models

6 Installed capacity (GW) Installed generation capacity % 44% 37% 56% 45% 31% 28% 4% 27% 217 CR TD SP CE CR TD SP CE Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar Other thermal Other renewables Storage Vehicle to Grid

7 Capacity (GW) Nuclear Reduction in nuclear capacity during 22s and 23s as existing plant close prior to new plants coming online 8 4 New projects come online after 23 including small modular reactors in Consumer Evolution Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

8 Capacity (GW) Offshore wind 5 4 Offshore wind could potentially reach 3 GW by 23 in Two Degrees Offshore wind grows in all scenarios based on assumptions of falling costs and prospects of a sector deal Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

9 Capacity (GW) Onshore wind Growth of onshore wind after 23 is assumed to be due to smaller-scale, distribution-connected projects in Community Renewables and Consumer Evolution 1 There is no decrease in capacity as repowering is assumed in all scenarios Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

10 Capacity (GW) Solar Domestic uptake of solar with storage drives rapid growth in Community Renewables 2 1 Further growth in the 22s and 23s driven by cost-parity assumptions Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

11 Capacity (GW) Gas Capacity market provides greater certainty to existing stations in the shorter-term 1 Gas continues to play a key role in providing backup generation and flexibility in all scenarios Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

12 Capacity (GW) Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) CCUS is assumed to be associated with hydrogen production via steam methane reforming in Two Degrees allowing it to operate more flexibly in the power market Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

13 Annual output (TWh) Carbon intensity (gco 2 / kwh) Generation output Community Renewables Renewable generation accounts for more than 75% of total output by Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar Other Thermal Other Renewables

14 Annual output (TWh) Carbon Intensity (gco 2 /kwh) Generation output Steady Progression Decarbonisation is slower in this scenario with around 6% renewable generation by Interconnectors Biomass CCS Waste Gas Coal Hydro Marine Nuclear Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar Other Thermal Other Renewables

15 Growth of flexibility in 23 GW 5 GW 1 GW 15 GW 2 GW 25 GW Interconnectors 217 CE TD Battery storage 217 SP CR TD Large-scale storage CE 217 CR SP TD Vehicle to grid CE 217 SP CR TD

16 Growth of flexibility in 25 GW 5 GW 1 GW 15 GW 2 GW 25 GW Interconnectors 217 CE TD Battery storage 217 SP CR Large-scale storage 217 CE SP TD Vehicle to grid 217 SP CR

17 Capacity (GW) Interconnectors Three new projects secured capacity market agreements in 221/ Community Renewables Two Degrees Steady Progression Consumer Evolution

18 Net annual flows (TWh) Interconnector flows 8 4 Interconnectors respond to balance renewables across Europe in later years Imports -4 Expect net imports in shorterterm driven by GB carbon price and new projects Exports Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

19 Capacity (GW) Electricity storage High growth in 24s in Community Renewables due to colocation with solar and wind combined with increased demand Growth of storage in 23s driven by need for flexibility in all scenarios Community Renewables Consumer Evolution Steady Progression Two Degrees

20 Future Events Webinars FES 218 Overview Gas Demand Electricity Demand Gas Supply Electricity Supply Dates Tuesday 17 th July, 1:-11:am Wednesday 18 th July, 1:-11:am Wednesday 18 th July, 2:-3:pm Thursday 19 th July, 1:-11:am Thursday 19 th July, 2:-3:pm To join please visit:

21 How to stay involved FES 218 launched on 12 July FES 218 webinars during w/c 16 July Stakeholder engagement for FES 219 from autumn 218 Keep up-to-date via our website and newsletter

22 218 Future Energy Scenarios Questions

23 Thank you for your time Stay in touch: For more information visit: System Operator