The Global Energy Scene

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1 IAGC February, 218 Tinker 218 The Global Energy Scene Scott W. Tinker

2 Tinker 218 Population Clean Water Education Healthcare Housing Hunger Climate Immigration Status of Women Unemployment Crime

3 Tinker 218 Energy has had a transformational impact on the quality of human life.

4 Tinker 218 Yet there exists a good and bad energy dialog in the public psyche.

5 The Dilemma Tinker 218 Most people do not know how electricity is made or where gasoline comes from. But they think they do!

6 Outline Tinker 218 The Energy Mix Electricity & Transportation Energy Poverty

7 The Global Energy Mix Tinker Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Hydro Nuclear Renew Petroleum % Coal Nat Gas 3135 Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

8 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent The Global Energy Mix Tinker Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Petroleum % Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

9 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Nat Gas 881 Petroleum The Global Energy Mix Tinker Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

10 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) Tinker Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

11 Global Energy Mix Renewable Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) Mix Tinker 218 Installed Installed Photovoltaic Wind Global Capacity Renewable Capacity Energy (MW) Consumption (MW) (MTOE) 1% 5 14, 25, 3 1,4 9% , 1,2 8% 2, % 1, 7% 1, 15, 2 33% 2 6% , 8 1, 5% % 95% 86% 6, % 4% 1 5, 15 3% 4, 4 Total Asia Pacific Total Africa 1 5 Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America 2% 2, % Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia 1% 29% China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others % Hydro Solar Solar 199 Wind Wind Biomass Oil Natural Gas CoalSolar Nuclear Wind Hydro Biomass Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

12 1,4 1,2 1, Global Energy Mix Renewable Consumption (MTOE) Tinker Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

13 Global Energy Mix Renewable Consumption (MTOE) Tinker Solar Wind Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

14 Global Energy Mix Installed Wind Capacity (MW) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Total Asia Pacific Total Africa Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Tinker 218

15 Global Energy Mix Tinker , 2, Installed Photovoltaic Capacity (MW) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) 15, 1, 5, China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others

16 Global Energy Mix Renewable Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) Mix Tinker 218 Installed Installed Photovoltaic Wind Global Capacity Renewable Capacity Energy (MW) Consumption (MW) (MTOE) 1% 5 14, 25, 3 1,4 9% , 1,2 8% 2, 25 3 Nuclear Wind, Solar, Biofuels 3 1, 7% 1, 15, 2 2 6% , 8 1, 5% 152 6, % 1 5, 15 3% 4, 4 Total Asia Pacific Total Africa 1 5 Total Middle East Total S. & Cent. America 2% 2, Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia 1% China Japan Total North America Total Europe Total Others % Hydro Solar Solar 199 Wind Wind Biomass Oil Natural Gas CoalSolar Nuclear Wind Hydro Biomass Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

17 Population and Energy Tinker 218 F o r e c a s t 12 1 Asia Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

18 Population and Energy Tinker 218 F o r e c a s t Asia 12 The world 1 could be 1% 8 wind, wave 6and solar by 23, 4 if just for Global Population (B) political will Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

19 Population and Energy Tinker 218 F o r e c a s t 12 1 Energy by Population Asia Global Population (B) Asia Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

20 Annual installed Capacity gigawatts Average Module Price $ / watt Tinker United States Solar photovoltaics Source: Economist, Solar Energy Industries Association QAe5833

21 Million Kwh 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Growth in U.S. Wind Generation Iowa Illinois Tinker 218 Texas California Oklahoma Kansas QAe5771

22 Outline Tinker 218 The Energy Mix Electricity & Transportation Energy Poverty

23 Electricity Tinker 218

24 Electricity Use, 212 (Billion KwH) Tinker 218 China US IT Sector Russia Japan India Germany Canada Brazil South Korea (54) (511) (864) (1,65) (921) (1,817) (3,832) (5,523) (483) (482) Data Center Networks Powering Devices Manufacturing QAe5585 Source: Emerging Trends in Electricity Consumption for Consumer ICT, Peter Corcoran and Andres Andrae (213) and CIA World Factbook. China/Russia/Canada figures are from 214.

25 Baseload The Future Electricity Mix Tinker North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe Asia Pacific Electricity Generation by Fuel Oil Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

26 Percent of total Tinker 218 U.S. Electric Generation Shares (25-15) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 8% 18% 51% Nuclear Renewables Other Natural gas Coal Fracking! 21% 13% 32% % of CO 2 2% 3% ~ 2% CO 2 Reduction 34% 68% % Source: EIA QAe4744

27 Tinker 218 U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production Bcf/d Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report regions, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly 2 1 Rest of U.S. Rest of U.S. Shale Marcellus Region QAe4666

28 Tinker 218 U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production Bcf/d Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report regions, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly Rest of U.S. Rest of U.S. Shale Marcellus Region US Natural Gas Price ($mcf) US Gas Rigs 14 1,8 12 1,6 1,4 1 1,2 8 1, QAe4666

29 Tinker 218 U.S. Marketed Natural Gas Production Bcf/d Over 5% of U.S. Gas Production from Shale Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report regions, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly 2 1 Rest of U.S. Rest of U.S. Shale Marcellus Region Fracking! QAe4666

30 Gas Tcf Oil Bbbl Original In-Place Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date 7 5 Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, Gas Oil Resourcein-Place TRR Produced to-date Permian Basin in progress Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, Bakken/Three Forks Barnett ~18, ~1, ~16,5 ~63, Marcellus ~1,5 ~2, Fayetteville Haynesville ~6, ~35, ~6,5 ~13, For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology 3DRP Shale Resource and Production Project

31 Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour ~ 3 year total resource Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

32 Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

33 Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

34 Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tinker 218 Dynamics of Price, Cost, Technology, Policy and Demand

35 The Future Electricity Mix Tinker North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe Asia Pacific Electricity Generation by Fuel Oil Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

36 Power generation (TWh) European Coal Generation Tinker Germany Poland Czech Italy Spain Netherlands UK Other *preliminary QAe5339

37 Power generation (TWh) European Natural Gas Power Generation Tinker Coal UK Italy Germany Spain Netherlands Other *preliminary QAe534

38 The Future Electricity Mix Tinker North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe Asia Pacific Electricity Generation by Fuel Oil Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

39 Tonnes of coal equivalent, bn China Energy Consumption by Fuel Type Tinker 218 Coal Petroleum Hydro, nuclear, and wind power Natural gas Source: Economist, National Bureau of Statistics QAe5832

40 The Future Electricity Mix Average national electricity prices (in 211 US cents/kwh) Data: average prices from 211 converted at mean exchange rate for that year Affordable Available Reliable Tinker India Canada Mexico China S. Africa France Nigeria Brazil USA Russia Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com UK Japan Italy Australia Spain Germany Denmark

41 218 Tinker,Tinker 215 Transportation

42 Tinker 218 The Future Transportation Mix North America Diesel Gasoline Jet fuel Ethanol Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day Other Natural gas Fuel oil Biodiesel Europe ExxonMobil Corporation, 213 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24, page 2.

43 MMbbl/d U.S. Crude Oil Production Rest of U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico Permian Region Eagle Ford Region Bakken Region Approaching 5% of U.S. Oil Production from Shale Tinker 218 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report regions, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly 2 Fracking! QAe4665

44 Annual US Oil Production Thousand barrels/year Tinker 218 From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 212

45 Growth in petroleum production (millions barrels per day) Growth in Petroleum Production Inflation Adjusted WTI Oil Price Saudi Arabia Tinker 218 Russia China Year idden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_11215.html Source: Mark Mills, 217 QAe5569

46 Growth in petroleum production (millions barrels per day) Growth in Petroleum Production Inflation Adjusted WTI Oil Price Tinker U.S. Saudi Arabia Bakken Eagle Ford Other Permian Russia Basin Year idden_in_plain_sight_part_1_of_3_--_shale_crushes_solar_11215.html Source: Mark Mills, 217 QAe5569

47 Tinker 218 The Future Transportation Mix North America Diesel Gasoline Jet fuel Ethanol Millions of oil-equivalent barrels per day Other Natural gas Fuel oil Biodiesel Europe Asia Pacific ExxonMobil Corporation, 213 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24, page 2.

48 Auto Sales Developing Nations Rolling 12-month (million) Tinker India Brazil Mexico Russia Indonesia Thailand Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 217 QAe5762

49 Auto Sales Developed Nations Rolling 12-month (million) Recession Tinker China USA EU28 Japan India Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 217 QAe5761

50 Annual sales (light plug-in electric vehicles) Global Annual Sales Light-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles ( ) Tinker , 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ~ 1.1% Canada Japan China Western Europe United States Source: Argonne National Laboratory, United States Department of Energy QAe5893

51 Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com QAe5779

52 Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil ~1% of Global Vehicle Fleet Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com QAe5779

53 Outline Tinker 218 The Energy Mix Electricity & Transportation Energy Poverty

54 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Africa Asia Latin America * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty Brazil Electricity Vietnam China Cameroon Kenya Tanzania Uganda India Bangladesh* Nigeria Ethiopia Poverty Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) Tinker 216 Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 217 QAe521

55 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Africa Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty 1 Brazil Electricity China India 8 Vietnam Energy does not end poverty. Bangladesh* Tinker Asia Cameroon Nigeria Latin Poverty America cannot 4 be ended without energy. Tanzania * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 2 Kenya Ethiopia a day poverty line Poverty Purchasing power Uganda parity Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 217 QAe521

56 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH /CAP Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living United States Developed 12 Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia Japan U.S. GDP > 2X 8 6 Developing South Korea China Germany 4 Brazil Malaysia 2 Mexico Niger Ecuador India Ghana Haiti GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Undeveloped Source: World Bank Databank

57 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH /CAP Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living United States Developed 12 1 Niger Brazil Undeveloped Russia Developing China India Saudi Arabia > 3 billion people Australia Ecuador South Korea Mexico Malaysia Japan Germany U.S. GDP > 2X Ghana Haiti GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank

58 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality United States 12 Australia 1 8 Russia Saudi Arabia Japan Niger Brazil China India South Korea Germany Malaysia Mexico Ecuador Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

59 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality United States Russia Saudi Arabia Australia Switch Japan Niger Brazil China Switch On 3 billion India Ecuador 4.5 billion South Korea Germany Mexico Malaysia Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

60 Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Germany Malaysia Switch On 2 Switch Japan Ecuador Mexico GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

61 Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Germany Malaysia Switch On 2 Switch Japan Ecuador Mexico GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

62 Keep IT in the Ground. Keep THEM in Poverty. Tinker 216

63 The Three Es Environment Tinker 216 Economy Energy Source: Tinker, EARTH, 213

64 Tinker 216 Academia/NGO Government The Radical Middle Industry Source: Tinker, EARTH, 213

65 Tinker 216 Research Regulation Secure Energy Markets Political

66 Global Energy Trends Tinker Energy poverty a primary global challenge 2. Energy security drives energy policy 3. Energy efficiency becomes strategic 4. Impact of batteries/renewables quantified 5. Electric Vehicles grow and plateau 6. Renewables grow, requiring massive storage 7. Natural gas grows for electricity generation 8. Oil remains primary fuel for transportation

67 Thanks for what You do Tinker 218

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