U.S. Historical and Projected Shale Gas Production

Transcription

1 U.S. Historical and Projected Shale Gas Production Phyllis Martin Phyllis Martin, Senior Energy Analyst Office of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration December 1 st, 2 NCSL Webinar "Hydraulic Fracturing: State Policy and the Future of Natural Gas" 1 Phyllis Richard Martin, Newell, June March SAIS, 22, December 2, 2 14,

2 Import share of natural gas supply declines as domestic supply grows 3 trillion cubic feet History Projections 25 Consumption 6% 2 15 Net imports Domestic supply 13% Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2 2

3 Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs 25 trillion cubic feet History Projections Alaska 2 Shale gas 15 Coalbed methane Non-associated onshore 5 Non-associated offshore Associated with oil Net imports Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2 3

4 Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other shale formations in the U.S. Source: Energy Information Administration based on data from various published studies. Updated: March, 2. Phyllis Martin, 2 NCSL National Webinar Oil Hydraulic and Gas Fracturing: Royalty Conference, State Policy Addison, and the Texas, Future November of Natural 1-2, Gas, 2 December 1, 2 4

5 Since 1997, more than 12, gas wells completed in the Barnett shale 5

6 The result has been an accelerating increase in production from the Barnett field gas production billion cubic meters 45 wells drilled thousands Vertical well production Horizontal well production Vertical well count Horizontal well count Source: EIA 6

7 Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources trillion cubic feet Unproved shale gas & coalbed methane Unproved Carbonate and Sandstone gas (including Alaska*) AEO edition Proved reserves (all types & locations) * Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO29 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. 7

8 Recent shale gas resource estimates trillion cubic feet Navigant ICF AEO2 IHS-CERA MIT ARI Jul 28 Nov 28 Dec 29 Feb 2 Jun 2 Aug 2 8

9 Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production from the major plays has increased 6-fold shale gas production billion cubic meters Barnett Fayetteville Woodford 9 Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting (2 estimated) 9

10 Shale gas production has continued to rise rapidly over the past year billion cubic feet per day Barnett Shale Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville Marcellus Eagleford Jan- 9 Mar- 9 May- 9 Jul- 9 Sep- 9 Nov- 9 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Source: EIA, Lippman Consulting

11 Drilling activity on the rise, particularly in the Haynesville, Marcellus, and Eagle Ford rigs drilling for gas Fayetteville Woodford Marcellus Haynesville Barnett Eagle Ford Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan- Jul- Source: Smith International 11

12 Fifty-five percent of active rotary rigs are now drilling horizontal wellbores active drilling rigs 2,5 2, Horizontal Directional Vertical 1,5 1, 5 Jan- 2 Jan- 21 Jan- 22 Jan- 23 Jan- 24 Jan- 25 Jan- 26 Jan- 27 Jan- 28 Jan- 29 Jan Source: Baker Hughes Oct 1, 2 12

13 Shale gas production by region, 28, 22, and 235 trillion cubic feet Northeast Gulf Coast Midcontinent Southwest Rocky Mountain Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2 13

14 Shale gas production significantly affects projected U.S. gas imports, and could have similar effects in other gas importing countries 5 4 total U.S. natural gas imports trillion cubic feet No new U.S. shale scenario Two alternate scenarios No new U.S. shale scenario allows no new onshore, lower 48 shale drilling after 29 High U.S. shale scenario increases unproved shale gas resources from 347 tcf to 652 tcf Reference scenario High U.S. shale scenario Projection Reference No New Shale Henry Hub price $28/mmbtu) Total U.S. gas production (tcf) Alaska pipeline start year Net U.S. gas imports (tcf) Total U.S. gas consumption (tcf) High Shale Resource $8.88 $.37 $ Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2 14

15 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review National Energy Information Center Live expert from 9: AM 5: p.m. EST Monday Friday (except Federal holidays) (22) (22)