Renewable Energy Scenarios

Transcription

1 Combined Solar Power and Desalination Plants: Techno economic potential in Mediterranean Partner Countries Renewable Energy Scenarios Dr. Franz Trieb Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity Coal, Lignite Oil, Gas Nuclear Fission, Fusion Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock) Biomass Hydropower Wind Power Photovoltaic Wave / Tidal ideally stored primary energy storable primary energy fluctuating primary energy

2 Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply Inexpensive low cost no long term subsidies Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand inexhaustible resources available technology Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access Renewable Energy Technologies Hydropower Geothermal Concentrating Solar Power Biomass Tides Waves Photovoltaic Wind Power

3 Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa Biomass (-1) Geothermal (-1) Solar (1-25) Max Wind Energy (5-5) Hydropower (-5) Min Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y Electricity Supply in Europe 45 Electricity [TWh/y] Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Year

4 Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa 45 Electricity [TWh/y] Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear Year Water Supply in the Middle East & North Africa 6 Water Consumption [Bm³/y] Natural Water Used Wastewater reused Fossil Fuel Desalination Groundwater Over-Use CSP Desalination Efficiency Gains

5 Availability and Redundancy Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants Increased Number of Supply Regions Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Renewable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix Strategy Based on Proven Technologies Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % until 25 in spite of a quickly growing demand CO2-Emissions in Mt/y Year Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear

6 Environmental Security Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduced Risks from Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation Reduced Pollution by Combustion Products Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix Technology based on Recyclable Materials Electricity Cost (Example Spain) Electricity Cost [c/kwh] Investment Phase Profit Phase Year TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix 2 2, Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 25, after 22 CCS

7 German Feed-In Law: Impact on Consumers Consumer Tariff [ct/kwh] taxes feed-in law escalation since 2 production cost in 2 year Feed-In Law 27: 1. ct added but.5 ct escalation avoided BMU 27 Economic Security Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources Avoids Cost Escalation from Environmental Constraints Avoids Cost Escalation from Scarcity Reduction of Energy Subsidies

8 Solar Power & Desalination Plants HVDC Line Conventional AC Grid Energy, Water, Food, Labor and Income for further 3 Million People in MENA? (artist view created with Google Earth) Political Security Conflict Prevention by Reducing Pressure on Fuels Conflict Prevention Solving Energy and Water Scarcity Conflict Prevention Increasing Energy Diversity Reduction of Energy Import Dependency Addition of Energy Corridors for Sustainable Supply Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership

9 Solar Electricity Corridors from MENA to Europe High Voltage Direct Current Transmission in China Voltage: ± 8. Volt Power: 64 Megawatt Length: 27 km Source: Hydropower Losses: 7%

10 Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP Annual Full Load Hours [h/y] Direct Normal Irradiation [kwh/m²/y] SM4 SM3 SM2 SM1 ANDASOL 1 Nevada Solar 1 SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4 Solar Field Solar Field Solar Field Solar Field SM = Solar Multiple 1 Solar Field = 6 m²/mw 1 Storage = 6 hours (full load) Power Block Storage Storage 1 2 Electricity Storage 3 Installed Capacity [GW] Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA Import/Export Desalination Year 24 Photovoltaic Wind Power 2 Geothermal Hydropower 16 Biomass Tidal/Wave 12 CSP 8 4 Oil & Gas Coal Nuclear Firm Capacity Peak Load

11 Challenges Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm) Requires Long-Term Financing Scheme for Large Infrastructure Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials WHY POWER FROM THE DESERT? Potential: 3.. TWh/a 18. TWh/a Global Demand Land Use: 15-3 m²/gwh 4 m²/gwh Coal 8 m²/gwh Clean Coal Availability: 7.5 h/a 7.5 h/a Nuclear Plant WHY NOT? Fthenakis and Hyung 29, own calculations

12 Thank you csd ec.eu