The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030
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1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 23 Scott A. Nauman Corporate Planning Manager Institute of Medicine Washington, D.C. November 29, 27 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
2 27 Energy Outlook Basis Energy Supply/Demand Other 1 Coal Gas 5 Oil Energy Demand Outlook Detailed buildup by country and end-use sector Links energy use to economic drivers Incorporates efficiency improvements Considers trends, economics, and supply by fuel type Reflects assessment of potential policy initiatives Oil & Gas Supply Outlook Incorporates ultimate recoverable resource estimates Models production profiles for all countries or regions Considers economics and ongoing advances in technology
3 Global Economics and Energy GDP Trillion 25$ % 3.% Energy Intensity BOE/25$K GDP 3-1.% -1.6% Energy Demand % 1.3%
4 World Energy Demand By Sector Fuel %.7% 1.7% 2 1.2%.9% Res/Comm 15 Other Coal Industrial 1 1.7% 5 Gas Transportation 1.5% 1.2% Oil Power Generation By Sector - 23 Other Industry Res / Comm Power Generation Chemicals Heavy Manufacturing Transportation Transportation ~ 324
5 Transportation
6 Global Transportation Demand % 4 3 Marine Rail Commercial 2.4% 2 1 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Light Duty Vehicles Personal 2.%
7 Global Commercial Transportation By Sector % Growth Rail -3.% 1.7 % 2.4% Marine 3.3% Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles Commercial HDV AVI MAR RAIL -5 Demand versus GDP 3 1 Light Duty Vehicles GDP (Trillion 25$)
8 Global Commercial Transportation % 4.9% 3 2.6% 2 Marine Rail 2.2% Commercial 1 Aviation Heavy Duty Vehicles 2.2%
9 Global Personal Transportation By Sector Light Duty Vehicles 2.%
10 Light Duty Vehicle Penetration Linked to GDP Vehicles per 1 people to 25 OECD U.S. 1 South Korea 1 Non-OECD China GDP per capita (25$)
11 Global Light Duty Vehicle Fleet By Region 25 Millions 8 6 Non-OECD % 5.2% Brazil Russia China Rest of Non OECD 4 2.1% Rest of OECD United States 2 OECD Germany Japan 2 25 ~ 7 Million Vehicles
12 U.S. Light Duty Vehicles Fuel Economy New Vehicles Vehicle Weight Efficiency MPG 5 4 Avg. Cars & Trucks Cars Trucks Pounds 5 4 Ton-MPG % Source: U.S. EPA
13 U.S. Light Duty Vehicles Comparison with EIA New Vehicle Fuel Economy Miles per Gallon 4 XOM Light Duty Fuels Demand MBD 12 ~ 4 MBD 2 EIA Vehicles/1 people EIA Source: AEO27
14 Ethanol United States Ethanol Production 2 Corn Utilization % Corn to Ethanol 4 1 ~13B Gallons ~16B Gallons 2 26 ~5B Gallons
15 Ethanol United States Ethanol Production Light Duty Fuel Demand 2 1 Ethanol 1 ~13B Gallons ~16B Gallons 5 Gasoline/Diesel ~5B Gallons
16 Global Transportation Demand OECD % Non-OECD % 3 1.2% 3 25 Other Transport % 2 3.6% 15 Heavy Duty Vehicles % 1 2.8% 5 Light Duty Vehicles %
17 World Energy Demand & Supply %.7% 1.5% 2.% %.9% Res/Comm Renewables Nuclear 1.7% Industrial Coal Gas Transportation 1.5% 1.2% Power Oil Generation
18 Liquids Supply & Demand % 9 Liquids Demand ~32 ~38 Biofuels ~47 6 OPEC Crude ~27 NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other 3 Non-OPEC Oil Sands Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate
19 Summary Global energy demand projected to grow at 1.3% per year Underpinned by economic and population growth Mitigated by efficiency gains Power generation represents more than 4% of demand increase Growth concentrated in developing countries Coal maintains highest fuel share, though gas has largest growth Nuclear power contribution grows, primarily post 22 Transportation sector demand growth slows over time Increase in new light duty vehicle fuel economy helps offset impact of growing fleet Biofuels supply increases but limited by cost and scale considerations Demand growth and fuel mix will lead to increased CO 2 emissions
20 The Outlook for Energy For more information regarding ExxonMobil s Energy Outlook please visit the link below:
21
22 U.S. - Corn Ethanol Production Plants > 3 Million Bu/Yr Ethanol Plants Source: National Renewable Corn Fuels Growers Association Association
23 Ethanol United States Ethanol Production 3 Production Cost 25$/gallon* $6/BBL $3/BBL United States Sugar Corn Cellulose * Energy Adjusted
24 Ethanol U.S. and Brazil Ethanol Production 3 Production Cost 25$/gallon* Brazil 2 1 $6/BBL $3/BBL United States Sugar Corn Cellulose * Energy Adjusted
25 Global Biofuel Volumes Production Volume 3 Light Duty Fuel Demand 3 2 Biodiesel Other Ethanol 2 Biofuels 1 Brazil 1 Gasoline/Diesel United States
26 World Energy Demand Primary Energy Supplies Primary Energy Oil Renewables Nuclear Coal Gas 1.3% 1.5% 2.%.9% 1.7% 1.2% Renewables Wind, Solar & Biofuels Hydro/Geo Biomass/Other 1.5% 8.7% 2.%.7% Wind, Solar & Biofuels Solar Biofuels Wind 9.9% 8.7% 1.5% 7.6%
27 World Energy & CO 2 Emissions OECD % 2 2.% Res/Comm Other Res/Comm Industrial Other Coal Transportation Gas Power Generation Oil Demand by Sector Fuel Non-OECD 1 Coal Industrial Transportation Gas Oil Power Generation Billion Tonnes CO 2 Billion Tonnes CO % 1.9% 2 Energy Related 2 Res/Comm Res/Comm CO 2 Emissions Industrial Coal 1 Industrial Coal 1 Transportation Transportation Gas Gas Power Generation Oil Power Generation Oil
28 Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Billion Tonnes %
29 Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes % Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol 3 1.1%
30 Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes % 1.1% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency
31 Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes % 1.% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency Replace ½ of coal growth with nuclear / CCS
32 Global CO 2 Emissions Energy Related CO 2 Emissions Sensitivities Billion Tonnes %.5% Double biofuels growth through cellulosic ethanol Double rate of improvement of new car efficiency Replace ½ of coal growth with nuclear / CCS Retire coal plants at 4 years and replace with nuclear / CCS
33 Conclusions Economic progress, especially in developing countries, will drive global energy demand higher despite substantial efficiency gains Oil, natural gas and coal are indispensable to meeting this energy demand, even with rapid growth in renewables Significantly impacting CO 2 emissions requires global participation, step changes in energy efficiency, technology gains and massive investment
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