Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution

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1 National University of Singapore Energy Studies Institute 18 May 215 Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution Edward C. Chow Senior Fellow

2 Revenge of the Oil Price Cycle

3 American Innovation: R&D and Entrepreneurship

4 Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution: Why the U.S.? Known geology and data availability Pricing liberalization Private mineral rights ownership Large number of independent producers Stable tax regime and regulatory environment Competitive oilfield equipment and services sector Availability of investment funds Existing infrastructure, although now inadequate with boom

5 U.S. Shale Gas Resources Unconventional Gas

6 Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 213 Projections Shale gas and tight oil plays billion cubic feet per day 1 Other lower 48 onshore Tight gas Coalbed methane 1 Lower 48 offshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 6

7 U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 22 in all AEO215 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 2 History Reference High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price 15 1 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 197 Tight oil 5 Lower 48 offshore Other lower 48 onshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 7

8 Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet History 213 Alaska LNG exports 213 Projections 213 Lower 48 states LNG exports billion cubic feet per day Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada -4-1 High Oil and Gas LNG imports Reference Low Oil Price Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 8

9 Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 History Projections Net petroleum and other liquids imports 33% 14% 21% Natural gas plant liquids 17% 21% 1 14% 17% 29% Tight oil production 22% 5 Other crude oil production (excluding tight) 23% 25% 27% Other 14% 12% 12% Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 9

10 U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas History Reference Low Oil Price Resource Total petroleum product net exports 12 Total petroleum product Other petroleum High Oil and Gas Resource net exports product exports Low Oil Price Reference Motor gasoline exports 4 Distillate exports Other petroleum product imports -4 Distillate imports Motor gasoline imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 1

11 Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet History 213 Alaska LNG exports 213 Projections 213 Lower 48 states LNG exports billion cubic feet per day Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada -4-1 High Oil and Gas LNG imports Reference Low Oil Price Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

12 U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent 6. United States Russia Saudi Arabia natural gas petroleum e 5 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Petroleum production includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensates, refinery processing gain, and other liquids, including biofuels; barrels per day oil equivalent were calculated using a conversion factor of 1 barrel oil equivalent=5.55 million British thermal units (Btu) 1

13 U.S. liquids supply growth since 21 and unplanned supply disruptions Million barrels per day US -1-2 Libya Iran Others Nigeria Iraq Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; 214 includes data through September

14 Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 24 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours 75 History 213 Projections Conventional Hydroelectric Power Wind 15 Biomass Municipal waste/landfill gas Solar Geothermal Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 14

15 U.S. Energy Independence? Source: IEA WEO 15

16 Growing U.S. oil production and rising demand in China have together made China the world s largest net oil importer net imports for China and the United States million barrels per day U.S. net imports history Aug-14 projections 5 4 China net imports Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid fuels consumption less domestic production Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October

17 214 Chinese Oil Imports by Source Iraq 9% Iran 9% Venezuela 4% UAE 4% Kuwait 3% Colombia 3% Other Africa [PERCENTAGE] Oman 1% Other 18% Other Asia [PERCENTAGE] The Russian Federation 11% Other Latin America [PERCENTAGE] Rest of World [PERCENTAGE] Angola 13% Saudi Arabia 16% Total imports: 6 mmmbd Total Consumption: 1.7 mmbld 1

18 Natural gas demand outlook by region bcm 1.7% Additional to % 5.5 % 212 % = CAAGR %.2% 4 2.4% 3.2% 2 4.6% United States Middle East China European Union Russia Latin Africa India America The main regions pushing global gas demand higher are China which overtakes the EU as a gas consumer around 235 and the Middle East Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 214

19 214 Chinese Natural Gas Imports by Source Qatar 16% Australia 9% Malaysia 7% Other Africa LNG [PERCENTAGE] Uzbekistan 4% Indonesia 6% Myanmar 5% Other 8% Other Middle East LNG [PERCENTAGE] Other Pipeline [PERCENTAGE] Total Imports: 6 bcma Total Consumption: 176 bcma Turkmenistan 45% 1

20 Middle East and North Africa Still Critical to Global Oil Supply Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels) 1% 11% 4% 6% Europe Eurasia Asia & Oceania Africa MENA 78% Source: EIA Data

21 U.S. Imports from ME/Gulf 2.1 million barrels daily <25% total net U.S. oil imports Global Oil Demand 92 million barrels daily Strait of Hormuz Traffic 17.7 million barrels shipped daily 32% globally traded oil Europe Japan 11% U.S. 26% Non-Asian markets 4% Others 11% India China 12% 15% 74% Asian and eastern markets 18% 6% 22% Singapore Others

22 Instability in the Middle East a major risk to oil markets mb/d Oil production growth in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East +15 Increase to 24: 14 mb/d Middle East Increase to 24: 14 mb/d Net decline in output from other producers Brazil Canada United States The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as demand rises to 14 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 214

23 Crude oil imports in Asia mb/d Export: Middle East Import: Other Asia India China Asia s crude oil import needs have caught up with volumes available from the Middle East, and it imports 7.7 mb/d of crude from the rest of the world by 24 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 214

24 24

25 Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources Shale gas Rank Country Trillion cubic feet 1 China 1,115 2 Argentina 82 3 Algeria 77 4 United States Canada Mexico Australia South Africa 39 9 Russia Brazil 245 World total 7,299 Shale oil Rank Country Billion barrels 1 Russia 75 2 United States 58 3 China 32 4 Argentina 27 5 Libya 26 6 Venezuela 13 7 Mexico 13 8 Pakistan 9 9 Canada 9 1 Indonesia 8 World total 345 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI.

26 Outlook for tight oil mb/d United States Russia Argentina Mexico China Canada Rest of world Tight oil production remains focused in the United States, but is joined increasingly by other players Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 214

27 Takeaways Unconventional/shale story is transformative for the U.S. U.S. is heading towards 9% energy self-sufficiency but still part of a global market Unclear whether transferable internationally Future depends on policy, e.g., U.S. oil and gas exports Middle Eastern supplies still critical to global markets Foreign and defense policy implications still unclear Sanctions have become foreign policy tool of choice

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