AIChE: Natural Gas Utilization Workshop Overcoming Hurdles of Technology Implementation

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1 AIChE: Natural Gas Utilization Workshop Overcoming Hurdles of Technology Implementation Natural Gas in the United States: An Overview of Resources and Factors Affecting the Market November 2, 216 Justin M. Adder, Energy Markets Analysis Team Solutions for Today Options for Tomorrow

2 The Fossil Energy Laboratory Oregon ONE LAB System Pennsylvania o o o o Process Systems Engineering Decision Science Functional Materials Environmental Sciences o o o Materials Performance Alloy Development/Manufacture Geospatial Data Analysis West Virginia Alaska o o o o Energy Conversion Devices Simulation-Based Engineering In-Situ Materials Characterization Supercomputer Infrastructure Texas Oil and Gas Strategic Office Oil and Gas Strategic Office 2

3 Core Competencies Computational Science & Engineering Materials Engineering & Manufacturing Geological & Environmental Systems Energy Conversion Engineering Systems Engineering & Analysis High Performance Computing Data Analytics Structural & Functional Design, Synthesis & Performance Air, Water & Geology Understanding & Mitigation Component & Device Design & Validation Process & System Optimization, Validation & Market Economics OIL & GAS Enhanced Resource Production Environmentally Prudent Development Transmission & Delivery Methane Hydrates 3

4 Natural Gas Prices Various Cases Henry Hub Spot Prices ($/MMBtu) Under Various EIA Cases $1 Historical AEO 216 Forecast $/MMBtu (215$) $8 $6 $4 $2 Low Oil & Gas Resource High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price High Oil & Gas Resource $ There are several determinants of future natural gas prices Source: EIA, AEO 216 4

5 Determinants of Natural Gas Prices Direct and Indirect Determinants of Natural Gas Prices Direct Forces Time Horizon Likely Effect Secular Demand Long Rising, thus prices rise; incentive for more supply Cyclical Investment Behavior Gas Storage Pipeline Infrastructure LNG Exports Access to Resources Indirect Forces Industrial Use Transportation Use Coal Power Nuclear Power Short to Medium Short to Medium Medium to Long Short to Medium Medium to Long Short to Long Short to Long Short to Long Short to Long Pro-cyclical behavior increases amplitude of price fluctuations If well behaved, counter-cyclical effect on price. Issue as to whether there will be enough storage Delays in permitting and constructing gathering lines and transmission projects moving gas from high supply areas to high demand areas Foreign markets where natural gas prices are higher; thus putting upward pressure on domestic prices Advanced technology and federal lands could increase supply. Low natural gas prices could hinder production Increased manufacturing adds structural element to gas demand NG and NGL Vehicles and fleets add structural element to gas demand Environmental regulations reduce use; structural element added to gas demand Cheapest marginal operating cost, retirements add structural element to gas demand if coal unavailable 5

6 World Proved Reserves World Proved Natural Gas Reserves, 215 World Total 6,599 tcf Algeria, 159 tcf (2.4%) Nigeria, 181 tcf (2.7%) Venezuela, 198 tcf (3%) UAE, 215 tcf (3.3%) Saudi Arabia, 294 tcf (4.5%) U.S., 369 tcf (5.6%) Rest of World 1,359 tcf (2.5%) Turkmenistan 617 tcf (9.4%) Russia 1,14 tcf (17.3%) Qatar 866 tcf (13.1%) Iran 1,21 tcf (18.2%) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 216, (May not equal 1% due to rounding) 6

7 World Production World Natural Gas Production, 215 Indonesia, 2.6 tcf (2.1%) China, 4.9 tcf (3.9%) Norway, 4.1 tcf (3.3%) Mexico, 1.9 tcf (1.5%) Algeria, 2.9 tcf (2.3%) Rest of World, 31.3 tcf (24.8%) Russia, 2.2 tcf (16.1%) World Total 125 tcf Canada, 5.8 tcf (4.6%) Nigeria, 1.8 tcf (1.4%) Venezuela, 1.1 tcf (.9%) UAE, 2. tcf (1.6%) U.S., 27.1 tcf (22.%) Iran, 6.5 tcf (5.4%) Saudi Arabia, 3.8 tcf (3.%) Turkmenistan, 2.6 tcf (2.%) Qatar, 6.4 tcf (5.1%) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 216, (May not equal 1% due to rounding) 7

8 U.S. Rig Count and Production Oil and Natural Gas Rig Count and Natural Gas Production 2,5 9 2, total rig count natural gas production 8 7 U.S. Rig Count 1,5 1, oil rigs natural gas rigs 1 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Natural gas production increases despite fall in rig count Source: Baker Hughes, Inc. rig count, EIA Monthly Total Marketed Production 8

9 U.S. Drilling & Completion Costs U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Drilling & Completion Cost Reductions (indexed to Dec 212) Producer Price Index by Industry Dec. 212 = Henry Hub Drilling Support Frac Sand Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 $6. $5.5 $5. $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 Henry Hub Spot Price $ per Million Btu From Feb 214 to Feb 216 the PPI by industry classification showed the following changes: Rates for drilling activities, which represent fees for contractors to drill oil and gas wells, declined by 28.7% Rates for support activities, which include surveying, cementing, casing, and treating wells, declined by 3.1% The price of sands primarily used for hydraulic fracturing declined 2.% Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Industry Producer Price Indexes and EIA Henry Hub Spot Price 9

10 Marcellus Shale Drilling Permits Drilling Permit Count and Natural Gas Production By Quarter Permit Count 1,4 1,2 1, Production () Source: DI Analytics, DrillingInfo and EIA Drilling Productivity Report 1

11 Drilled but Uncompleted Wells Gas Region DUC Well Inventory 1,4 1,2 Number of DUCs 1, Haynesville Marcellus Utica Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report, September

12 U.S. Natural Gas Production Projections U.S. Natural Gas Production (Tcf) by EIA Case, Trillion Cubic Feet Alternative price and resource/technology assumptions could be quite different Reference Case 216 Reference Case 215 High Oil Price Low Oil Price High Resource Case Low Resource Case Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Annual Energy Outlook

13 U.S. Natural Gas Supply Sources Unconventional Gas: Major Impact on U.S. Gas Supply Sources (Reference Case) 5 History Projections 14 Trillion Cubic Feet Shale gas Other lower 48 onshore Tight gas Coalbed methane Lower 48 offshore Alaska U.S. shale gas grows to 69 percent of total U.S. production by Billion Cubic Feet per Day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216, Tables 13 and 14 13

14 U.S. Shale Gas Production U.S. Dry Shale Gas Production Through June Billion Cubic Feet per Day Marcellus (PA & WV) Eagle Ford (TX) Haynesville (LA & TX) Barnett (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Rest of US 'shale' Marcellus region provides nearly 4% of total U.S. shale gas production Source: EIA, Natural Gas Weekly, Released July

15 Gross Natural Gas Withdrawals by State Natural Gas Withdrawals by State, 3 25 Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio production continues to increase due to new wells being brought online in the Marcellus & Utica shale plays Texas Federal GOM Wyoming Oklahoma New Mexico Louisiana Alaska Colorado Ohio Pennsylvania West Virginia Source: EIA, Monthly Natural Gas Gross Production Report, July,

16 Natural Gas Production Shifts U.S. Natural Gas Production in Jan. 26, Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 212 and Monthly Natural Gas and Petroleum Report, July 31,

17 Natural Gas Production Shifts U.S. Natural Gas Production, Jan. 26 compared to Jan. 216, % % 1,332% % ,312% 4% % % 3.51 Source: EIA, January Monthly Natural Gas and Petroleum Report 17

18 Natural Gas Pipeline Miles and Capacity Annual Addition of Natural Gas Pipeline Miles and Capacity, Northeast Region vs. Total U.S. (2 22) Miles of Pipeline Added 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, *Announced Capacity Added () Northeast Miles Total U.S. Miles Northeast Capacity Total U.S. Capacity *(Not all announced pipelines will be built) Source: EIA, 18

19 Natural Gas Infrastructure Development Major Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions in the Northeast ~2 of new natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity from 3+ pipeline builds, expansions and reversals to move gas out of the Appalachian basin by 219. Midwest East Source: RBN Energy and EIA 19

20 Natural Gas Consumption U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector through 24 (Reference Case) 4 35 History Projections Natural gas consumption growth is led by electricity generation and industrial uses; natural gas use rises in all sectors except residential Trillion Cubic Feet *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel Industrial* Electric Power Transportation** Commercial Residential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Annual Energy Outlook 216 2

21 Natural Gas Prices Versus Demand Henry Hub Spot Prices ($/MMBtu) vs. Total Consumption & Production (Tcf) $/MMBtu (215$) $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 Historical Henry Hub Price Total Production AEO 216 Forecast Total Consumption Tcf $ Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, and Annual Energy Outlook

22 U.S. Natural Gas Imports and Exports U.S. Natural Gas Imports and Exports, (Reference Case) Tcf History 215 Projections Alaska LNG exports Lower 48 states LNG exports Lower 48 LNG exports Pipeline imports from Canada -4-6 LNG imports U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 216, Tables 13 and 14 22

23 Thank You 23

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