Black Gold: America and Oil 9/23/08 NOTES 9/18/08 POSTED & ASSIGNMENT #4 INTER/EXTRAPOLATION & EXP. GROWTH?

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1 Black Gold: America and Oil 9/23/08 NOTES 9/18/08 POSTED & ASSIGNMENT #4 INTER/EXTRAPOLATION & EXP. GROWTH?

2 Questions Is America / world running out of oil? Can the US be energy-independent?

3

4 U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, (quadrillion Btu) 140 History Projections % 100 Net Imports 80 Consumption 31% 60 Production Annual Energy Outlook 2007

5 U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections Liquid Fuels Coal 30 Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Annual Energy Outlook 2007

6 U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections Consumption Net Imports 61% 15 60% 10 Domestic Supply Annual Energy Outlook 2007

7 U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector, (million barrels per day) History Projections Transportation Industrial 0 Residential and Commercial Electric Power Annual Energy Outlook 2007

8 U.S. Liquid Products Consumption, (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 Total Motor Gasoline Other Distillate Jet Fuel Residual Annual Energy Outlook 2007

9 World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 33% 225 Oil 38% Coal % Natural Gas 24% 75 Renewables 8% 6% Nuclear % 26% Share of World Total 9% 5% International Energy Outlook 2006

10 World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, (quadrillion Btu) 800 History Projections Non-OECD OECD International Energy Outlook

11 World Oil Consumption, (million barrels per day) Electricity Transportation Industrial Commercial Residential International Energy Outlook 2006

12 140 World Oil Consumption and Production, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day) Consumption Non-OECD OECD Production OPEC Conventional Non-OPEC Conventional Unconventional International Energy Outlook 2006

13 China from NG

14 OPEC Conventional Liquids Production (million barrels per day) Asia Middle East West Africa International Energy Outlook 2007

15 Where is the Oil? The World s 15 Largest Oil Suppliers, 2004 Saudi Arabia and Russia remain leading world oil suppliers Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2004)

16 World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006 (billion barrels) Saudi Arabia Iran Kuwait Venezuela Libya United States Qatar Algeria Kazakhstan Azerbaijan World Total = 1,293 Billion Barrels Oman Ecuador UK Reserves: economically recoverable in identified deposits Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005).

17 USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977 Folinsbee 1976 Adams & Kirby 1975 Linden 1973 Moody 1972 Moody 1970 Shell 1968 Weeks 1959 MacNaughton 1953 Weeks 1948 Pratt 1942 Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery Source: USGS and Colin Campbell Trillions of Barrels

18 Conventional What makes a reserve conventional. How are reserves "proven"? As M.A. Adelman puts it: Petroleum engineers estimate the cost of drilling and connecting new wells into a new or existing reservoir. A well can produce an initial daily amount, which will decline over time because of pressure loss, water encroachment and other factors... Because operating expenses per well are fairly constant, the cost per barrel must rise as output declines. When cost just equals the market value of the output, production stops at this "economic limit." The estimated aggregate output of the new wells over time is known as the "proved reserves added" or "reserves booked." In the United States, annual reserve estimates are accurate enough... But except for the United states and a very few other countries, published reserves are not well defined and estimation methods are not revealed. Year to year changes usually do not mean much of anything... M.A. Adelman, The Genie out of the Bottle: World Oil since 1970, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995).

19 Unconventional What is an unconventional oil reserve? "Unconventional" petroleum reserves include: Heavy oils, which can be pumped and refined just like conventional petroleum except that they are thicker and have more sulfur and heavy metal contamination, necessitating more extensive refining. Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil belt is the best known example of this kind of unconventional reserve. Estimated reserves: 1.2 trillion barrels. Tar Sands, which can be recovered via surface mining or in-situ collection techniques. Again, this is more expensive than lifting conventional petroleum but not prohibitively so. Canada's Athabasca Tar Sands is the best known example of this kind of unconventional reserve. Estimated reserves: 1.8 trillion barrels. Oil Shale requires extensive processing and consumes large amounts of water. Still, reserves far exceed supplies of conventional oil.

20 U.S. Dependence on Imported Oil 2002, 2010, and 2015 US reliance on oil imports rises Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

21 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries 1960 Baghdad: Iraq Iran Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela joint by 8 more later Algeria Angola Ecuador Indonesia Libya Nigeria Qatar UAE Non-OPEC for example: Canada & Mexico ~ 1/4 of US imports Russia, Norway, UK

22 The Future of Oil Some Considerations: Effect of Events Necessity of Assumptions & Models Interpolation versus Extrapolation

23 Crude Oil Price Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2004 Crude oil prices rise again in 2004

24 M. King Hubbert October 5th, October 11th, 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know." 1955: elected National Academy 1957: elected AAAS 1959: Arthur L. Day Medal from Geological Society of America 1962: elected President, Geological Society of America 1977: Rockefeller Public Service Award 1981: Vetlesen prize from Columbia University

25 Model of M. King Hubbert Assumptions The initial and final rates of consumption are zero The initial rise in consumption is exponential Scarcity and high cost drive the consumption rate to zero In 1956, Hubbert predicted that US 48- state oil production would peak between 1965 and How did he do?

26 Consumption of a Resource Rate of Use Remaining Used

27 Hubbert Production rate: rises and declines exponentially Total production: S curve Q d cumulative discovery Q p cumulative production Q r = Q d - Q p proven reserves lags 11 years

28 Hubbert Curve

29 Hubbert prediction: US peak in It peaked in 1970!! Alaska peaked in 1988

30 Economics is not much help in making predictions! Major Events and World oil Prices Refiner Acquisition Cost of Imported Crude Oil (Saudi Light Official Price for ) Oil prices fluctuate widely over past three decades

31 Current Events: ANWR

32 Drilling in the ANWR? ANWR = Arctic National Wildlife Reserve USGS (US Geological Survey) estimates 10 x 10 9 barrels (9-16) How much energy? 10 x 10 9 x 5.25 x 10 6 Btu = 52.5 x Btu = 52.5 quads About a 1/2 a year s worth of energy Takes at least 10 years to go into production...

33 Cartoon in PD

34 Current Events: Iraq

35 When Will World Oil Production Peak? EIA Simple Model

36 A Large Set of Scenarios

37 When Will World Oil Production Peak? EIA Simple Model

38 Recent NG

39 U.S. Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) History Projections Lower-48 (right axis) Alaska (right axis) Total Change (left axis) Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2007

40 U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 2 Alaska Deepwater Offshore Lower 48 Onshore Shallow Water Offshore Annual Energy Outlook 2007

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