Hourly electricity consumption by households and the peak demand Frits Møller Andersen

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1 Hourly electrcty consumpton by households and the peak demand Frts Møller Andersen

2 Categores [] Categores [] Total [] Total [] Why focus on households and peak consumpton? The peak consumpton s related to the need for producton - and transmsson capactes. In Denmark the peak-consumpton s a workday n January from 6 to 7 p.m. where household consumpton has a peak and accounts for about 35% of the total consumpton. In the lterature t s argued that some of the consumpton may be shfted n tme wth lmted consequences for the household, e.g. freezers, hot water. Hourly consumpton by categores of customers Monday Monday 10 to 10 Sunday to Sunday 16 December 16 December Mon Mon Tue Tue Wed Wed Thu Thu Fr Fr Sat Sat Sun Sun Mon Mon Households HouseholdsAgrculture AgrcultureIndustry IndustryPrvate Prvate servces servcespublc Publc servces servcestotal Total One week n December Man observatons: Total: 2 daly peaks, hgh consumpton on workdays, lower consumpton n weekends. Households: large consumpton durng the evenng and n weekends. The evenng peak s the same. Producton sectors: large consumpton on workdays durng work-hours. The length of work-hours dffer between sectors. Especally prvate servces have long workdays and some are open n weekends. 2 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

3 Seasonal varatons n consumpton Total: consumpton s hgh n wnter and lower n summer. The evenng peak dsappears n the summer. Seasonal varatons manly due to varatons n consumpton by households and publc servces. (Effects of holdays n July and December. Manly vsble for the ndustry) 3 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

4 Consumpton profles for household applances Metered data for consumpton by a long lst of household applances s avalable from two EU-projects: EUROCO and REMODECE. Profles are adjusted to Dansh condtons and aggregated to the four categores: cold appl., heatng, washng and the rest (lght, TV, PC, stove etc.) Cold applance - Workday Cold applances 0035 Heatng - Workday Heatng Cold applances; constant Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Heatng; Daly profle (hot water). Seasonal (cold wnter). Washng; Daly profle, lttle seasonal varaton Wash - Workday Washng Jan Other appl Energnet - Workday Other applances Jan Other applances; smlar to household total Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flexblty: automatc (wthn the day) manual (wthn the week) lttle/no flexblty. 4 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

5 Contrbuton of applances to the classc consumpton 2012 January Workday 2012 June Workday Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances 2012 January Not workday 2012 June Not workday Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances Man observatons; lookng at the peak hour from 6 to 7 p.m. n January: Coolng+heatng ~ 11% (flexble wth automated control) Washng ~ 15% (flexble wth manual control) Other applances > 70% durng daytme (Not flexble) Share of total consumpton hour Annual share of household January consumpton Average of Cold applances Average of Heatng Average of Washng Average of Other applances Sum shares That s, durng daytme only about 30% of the classc consumpton s evaluated to be flexble. June Average of Cold applances Average of Heatng Average of Washng Average of Other applances Sum shares Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

6 The INCAP-experment. SE nvtes customers to partcpate n an experment gvng them ncentves to shft demand n tme. Customers were asked f they would accept that SE controlled ther refrgerator securng suffcent coolng of the food. About 50% would accept automated control. Customers were also gven economc and/or envronmental ncentves to shft consumpton n tme. Informaton about requred shfts were sent by text-messages (sms s). When asked, on average about 4% of ther consumpton n gven tme-slots were shfted away. Unts: h/h hour January Average of Cold applances Average of Heatng Average of Washng Average of Other applances Total household consumpton, Total DK June Average of Cold applances Average of Heatng Average of Washng Average of Other applances Total household consumpton Total DK Lookng at the peak hour (January from 6 to 7 p.m.) 50% of automated control (coolng+heatng) gves % of household consumpton s 8 (4% of 36). About 25% of consumpton for washng. In total 0.2 or 10% of household consumpton n the peak hour. Due to self-selecton evaluated to be max-effects. Changng all lghtbulbs n households to energy-savng (LED) bulbs wll reduce the peak about the same. Lghtng 15% of other applances ~ Consumpton of a LED bulb s 20% of an old bulb; savngs ~ (For the household the economy of savngs s much larger than shftng consumpton n tme. Only 20% of the consumer prce s costs of electrcty) 6 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

7 New servces; ndvdual heat pumps and electrc vehcles. On average the annual consumpton of a heat pump 3200 kwh/year an electrc vehcle 3000 kwh/year present classc consumpton of a household wthout heatng 3400 kwh/year Incentve for becomng flexble s much larger f you have ether a heat pump or an electrc vehcle. By 2030 (Energnet.dk) 4500 ndvdual heat pumps ~ 1476 h/year electrc vehcles ~ 704 h/year Consumpton profle: ndvdual heat pumps; profle shown earler, calculated from statstcs for households wth and wthout electrc heatng, Dansh Energy Assocaton electrcal vehcles; worst case, vehcles are all charged from 5 to 9 p.m. when customers come home from work 7 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

8 Unts: h/h hour January Classc consumpton Heat Pumps Electrcal vehcles Total household consumpton Total DK June Classc consumpton Heat Pumps Electrcal vehcles Total household consumpton Indvdual heat pumps manly add to the wnter peak (In % of household consumpton), but not very much to consumpton n the summer (2%). Electrc vehcles add the same to the peak both summer and wnter. (24% n wnter and 40% n summer) Total DK Heat pumps January Workday Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances 3.0 Heat pumps June Workday Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances In the worst case heat pumps and electrc vehcles wll add 40% to the household peak consumpton n 2030 (14% of the aggregated Dansh peak consumpton). Ths s 4 tmes the expected flexblty from the classc consumpton. 3.0 Heat pumps and electrcal vehcles January Workday 3.0 Heat pumps and electrcal vehcles June Workday Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances Electrcal vehcles Other applances Washng Heatng Cold applances 8 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

9 Concluson: Classc consumpton may contrbute wth a lmted amount of flexblty. As heat pumps and electrc vehcles are ntroduced, ncentves for gettng these technologes to act flexble becomes very mportant. We have looked at households, only. If we succeed to get heat pumps and electrc vehcles to shft consumpton away from the evenng peak, we may end up wth the mornng peak beng the absolute peak, requrng producton sectors to become flexble. (the mornng peak s largest most of the year) I have presented aggregated natonal effects. Electrc vehcles and heat pumps may bunch up creatng consderable problems n specfc dstrbuton grds. 9 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

10 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet Thank you for your attenton

11 Modellng: The profle for the ndvdual categores of consumpton may be descrbed by: c t = d a d D d,t a d,m m D m,t a d,m,h h D h,t Other appl Energnet - Workday where D d,t, D m,t and D h,t are a number of zero/one varables representng varous types of days (d) (workdays and not workdays), 12 months (m), and 24 hour of the day (h), and Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec descrbe the shape of the daly consumpton curve for one month (one of the monthly curves n a d,m,h h=24 the Fgure). ( h=1 a d,m,h = 24) m=12 a d,m descrbe the relatve poston of the monthly curve, ( m=1 a d,m = 12) and a d descrbe the level of consumpton on types of days (workdays and not workdays) normalzed such that summng over all hours of the year consumpton equals 1, that s c t t = 1. For a gven hour t the normalzed consumpton s determned as: c t = a d a d,m a d,m,h Interpretaton: f a d,m,h = 1.1 and a d,m = 1.4 consumpton ths hour s 1.1*1.4 = 4 larger than the average hourly consumpton for the type of day (d) The hourly consumpton by technology s determned as: C t = c t C year where C year s the annual consumpton by the technology (s comng from Elmodelbolg). The aggregated consumpton s determned as the sum over categores: C t = C t 11 Danmarks Teknske Unverstet

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