The global energy outlook to 2025 and the megatrends impacting energy markets beyond that Sydney, 16 September Keisuke Sadamori Director
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1 The global energy outlook to 2025 and the megatrends impacting energy markets beyond that Sydney, 16 September 2015 Keisuke Sadamori Director
2 OECD/IEA Slide 2 Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d 98 mb/d Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16 Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS) Demand Supply* *OPEC production assumed at 31.7mb/d (most recent 3 month average) through forecast period -2.5 Source: OMR September 2015
3 OECD/IEA Slide 3 Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y Change mb/d Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Other North America Total Source: OMR September 2015
4 OECD/IEA 2014 Instability in the Middle East a major risk to oil markets mb/d Oil production growth in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East +5 Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d Net decline in output from other producers Middle East Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d Brazil Canada United States The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as demand rises to 104 mb/d & reliance grows on Iraq & the rest of the Middle East
5 Climate pledges shift the energy sector One-quarter of the world s energy supply is low carbon in 2030; energy intensity improves three-times faster than the last decade Renewables reach nearly 60% of new capacity additions in the power sector; two-thirds of additions are in China, EU, US & India Natural gas is the only fossil-fuel that increases its share of the global energy mix Total coal demand in the US, Europe & Japan contracts by 45%, while the growth in India s coal use slows by one-quarter Climate pledges for COP21 are the right first step towards meeting the climate goal OECD/IEA 2015
6 Gt CO 2 -eq OECD/IEA 2015 Peak in emissions: IEA strategy to raise climate ambition Global energy-related GHG emissions INDC Scenario Bridge Scenario Upstream methane reductions Renewables investment Savings by measure, 2030 Fossil-fuel subsidy reform Reducing inefficient coal Energy efficiency Five measures shown in a Bridge Scenario achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth 15% 17% 10% 9% 49%
7 GW Dollars per kw Million Dollars per kwh Lock in the vision: What more does it take for 2 C? 100 Cost reductions & deployment of all solar PV Cost reductions & deployment of electric vehicles OECD/IEA Capacity Capital costs Solar PV additions Solar PV (right axis) Vehicle sales Battery costs Total Internal combustion Electric vehicles Electric (right axis) An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector, strengthening the case for RD&D investment & technology transfer
8 Slide 8 Onshore wind USA 48 $/MWh USA 75 $/MWh Chile 87 $/MWh Brazil 81 $/MWh Brazil 54 $/MWh Utility PV Source: IEA analysis as of July 2015 Recent progress in RE generation costs Recent long-term remuneration contract prices (e.g. auctions and FITs) STE Ireland 69 $/MWh Morocco 160 $/MWh UK >120 $/MWh UK 122 $/MWh South Africa 65 $/MWh Germany $/MWh South Africa Base 124 $/MWh Peak 335 $/MWh South Africa 51 $/MWh Turkey 73 $/MWh Egypt 41 $/MWh China $/MWh India 88 $/MWh Dubai 60 $/MWh Australia 65 $/MWh Combination of technology cost reduction, better resources, appropriate regulatory framework attracting financing Long-term PPAs and price competition effective drivers for reducing costs
9 OECD/IEA 2015 Slide 9 Overview of results solar PV and wind Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2015
10 Energy security risks of renewables Slide 10 Net-load at different annual VRE shares Higher uncertainty % 10% 5% 2.50% 0% Smoothing effect at low shares Larger and more pronounced changes Load level [MW] Larger ramps at high shares More frequent up and down at high shares 0 Note: Load data and wind data from Germany 10 to 16 November 2010, wind generation scaled, actual share 7.3%. Scaling may overestimate the impact of variability; combined effect of wind and solar may be lower, illustration only. Hours Source: The Power of Transformation 2014
11 Gas struggles to compete against coal and renewables TWh OECD/IEA Incremental generation growth, Gas Coal Wind+Solar Sol ar Win d Co al
12 Second wave of additional LNG supply is coming soon Bcm OECD/IEA Additional LNG export capacity by year, United States Russia Southeast Asia Qatar Other Middle East
13 OECD/IEA 2015 Global LNG trade flows will shift Change in LNG net trade: (bcm) This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
14 Slide 14 Conclusions Companies that do not anticipate stronger energy & climate policies risk being at a competitive disadvantage. Policies and market designs must adapt to deeper de-carbonization. Well functioning market and diversity will continue to be the core of energy security. RD&D effort for cleaner energy in all fuel sources and improving efficiency is the key OECD/IEA 2014
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