Shale Gas and U.S. LNG Exports. Vienna, January 29, 2013 Jean Abiteboul President, Cheniere Supply & Marketing
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1 Shale Gas and U.S. LNG Exports Vienna, January 29, 2013 Jean Abiteboul President, Cheniere Supply & Marketing
2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included herein are forward-looking statements. Included among forward-looking statements are, among other things: Statements that we expect to commence or complete construction of a liquefaction facility by certain dates, or at all; Statements that we expect to receive authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, or the Department of Energy, or DOE to construct and operate a proposed liquefaction facility by a certain date, or at all; Statements regarding future levels of domestic or foreign natural gas production and consumption, or the future level of LNG imports into North America or exports from the U.S., or regarding projected future capacity of liquefaction or regasification facilities worldwide; Statements regarding any financing transactions or arrangements, whether on the part of Cheniere or at the project level; Statements regarding any commercial arrangements marketed or potential arrangements to be performed in the future, including any cash distributions and revenues anticipated to be received; Statements regarding the commercial terms and potential revenues from activities described in this presentation; Statements that our proposed liquefaction facility, when completed, will have certain characteristics, including a number of trains; Statements regarding our business strategy, our business plan or any other plans, forecasts, examples, models, forecasts or objectives: any or all of which are subject to change; Statements regarding estimated corporate overhead expenses; and Any other statements that relate to non-historical information. These forward-looking statements are often identified by the use of terms and phrases such as achieve, anticipate, believe, estimate, example, expect, forecast, opportunities, plan, potential, project, propose, subject to, and similar terms and phrases. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, they do involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, and these expectations may prove to be incorrect. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including those discussed in Risk Factors in the Cheniere Energy, Inc. and Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. Current Reports on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are incorporated by reference into this presentation. All forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these Risk Factors. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. 2
3 US Fundamentals
4 U.S. Gas Consumption vs Production Since 2005, U.S. production growth = 4.9 Tcf; demand growth = 2.3 Tcf Imports cut -2.6 Tcf (-58%) over this period The U.S. is on pace to be a net gas exporter by mid-decade TCF US Gas Production US Gas Consumption EIA Forecast Source: EIA historical, August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook ( data)
5 U.S. Proved Non-Producing Reserves Non-producing proved U.S. gas reserves +120% since 2004 to 113 Tcf Represents 115 MTA (15 Bcf/d) of LNG exports for 20+ years TCF BCM Source: EIA, US Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves,
6 Oil Production Drives Investment Decisions for Gas Liquids production from shale plays > 7 million b/d by 2020 Associated natural gas > 12 Bcf/d of costless supply Bcf/d Productive Capacity from Unconventional Reservoirs Includes Eagle Ford, Barnett Combo, Bakken, Permian, Anadarko, W. Marcellus, Utica, Cotton Valley, Piceance & Uinta NGLs Oil Natural Gas MMB/d Source: Advanced Resource Intl presentation to Cheniere Board, March 2012; Cheniere Research
7 Southwestern Energy Anticipates Future Gains As Well Source: Southwestern Energy Financials, BENTEK 7
8 Unconventional F&D Costs Most Plays Profitable Below $6 Henry Hub Break-Even Henry Hub Price (15% ROR, Before Taxes) Refractured Barnett Shale Well Profile $/MMBtu $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 ($1) EagleFord NW Liquids EagleFord NE Liquids GraniteWash Core TGS = Liquids Play Haynesville Shale Core Marcellus Shale Core Green River TGS Fayetteville Shale Barnett Core Piceance TGS EagleFord Dry Core Powder River CBM East Texas TGS Uinta Basin TGS Woodford Shale Source: Devon Energy Unconventional formations provide multiple opportunities to refracture old wells The full life-cycle benefits of future refracs are not considered in F&D cost estimates 8 Source: Assessed from Advanced Resources International presentations, assumes Rockies Colorado Interstate Gas -$0.25 basis, $90/bl oil price. Cheniere Estimates
9 Shale Gas A Growth Story Output from the six major shale plays grew more than 7 fold from 2007 to 2012, according to LCI. That accounts for about 35% of current US production. LCI projects US shale production to reach 35 Bcf/d by Tcf EIA projects that share to increase, choking out imports and reducing conventional onshore and offshore volumes. US Shale Production (MMcf/d) Barnett Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Eagleford Marcellus Total , , , , , ,399 1, , ,148 1,080 2,107 4, ,501 14, ,645 1,156 2,567 6,963 1,116 3,265 20, ,897 1,169 2,798 7,792 1,620 5,075 24,351 9 Source: LCI Energy Insight
10 LNG World
11 LNG Demand to Nearly Double by 2025 The market is short at least 11 Bcf/d of supply by 2025 LNG from the U.S. ideally timed to alleviate shortage Asia continues to propel the LNG market 11 Source: Woodmac; Excludes US proposed LNG
12 Firm Liquefaction Capacity Additions Diversity of supply sources practically non existent in the coming years Bcf/d Middle East Gulf Asia Pacific Atlantic Basin Gorgon T1 & Gassi Touil 2.0 Papua New Guinea Gorgon T2 & Curtis T1 1.5 T1 Pluto Angola LNG Gorgon T3 & Curtis T2 Gladstone T1 Wheatstone 1.0 Skikda Gladstone T2 Prelude Australia Pacific T2* Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: Cheniere Research 12 *FID pending
13 Compelling Price Advantage Current Prices = ~$3B-$4B of Spread for Each Bcf/d Worldwide Gas Prices = 11% to 15% of Crude Oil Estimated Prices Henry Hub: $3.00 / MMBtu Brent Crude: $100 / Barrel ($/MMBtu) Americas Europe Asia Henry Hub $ 3.00 $ 3.00 $ 3.00 Liquefaction Shipping Fuel/Basis $/MMBtu Regional Natural Gas & LNG Prices As of September 26, 2012 $16.08 $11.66 $9.00 Delivered Cost Regional Price $ 7.20 $ 7.70 $ 15% $2.63 Margin $ 7.80 $ 4.30 $ 5.55 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 NBP Japan avg LNG IFERC HH Monthly European Gas Contract 13 Source: Cheniere Research estimates
14 14 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Dry Gas production rises to 78.5 bcf/d by bcf/d by 2035 (76.7 bcf/d EIA 2012) 90.9 bcf/d by 2040 Gas consumption projected to 73.5 bcf/d by bcf/d by 2035 (72.9 bcf/d EIA 2012) 80.9 bcf/d by 2040 US LNG net exporter in 2016 and total natural gas net exporter by 2020 ( LNG exports of 4.5 bcf/d by 2027) ( Today: ~ 20 projects for 30 bcf/d)
15 15 DOE/NERA Study - December 2012 A series of cross-assumptions 6/12 bcf/d US LNG exports slow/rapid growth (1/3 bcf/d /year) low/reference/ high shale estimated ultimate recovery (+/- 50% per shale gas well for new undrilled wells compared with the reference case) Conclusion At the date when LNG exports begin +0 to 0.33 $/MM Btu after 5 years of growing exports to 1.11 $/MM Btu Net economic advantages for US in all scenarios
16 16 Deloitte Study December 2012 Assumptions 6 bcf/d export of US LNG to Asia or 6 bcf/d export of US LNG to Europe different kinds of competitive response scenarios Conclusions Between 2016 and 2030, low impact on HH ( + ~ 0.15 $ MM Btu) Significant impact on the average prices in Asia (-0.4 to -0.6 $/MM Btu) or in Europe ( -0.4 to -0.7 $ MM Btu)
17 Sabine Pass
18 Sabine Pass Liquefaction Project Existing operational facility Permitted Expansion Current Facility ~1,000 acres in Cameron Parish, LA 40 ft ship channel 3.7 miles from coast 2 berths; 4 dedicated tugs 5 LNG storage tanks (17 Bcf of storage) 5.3 Bcf/d of pipeline interconnection Liquefaction Trains 1 & 2 2 trains, each 4.5 mtpa nameplate capacity LSTK EPC contract w/ Bechtel Operations estimated Liquefaction Trains 3 & 4 2 trains, each 4.5 mtpa nameplate capacity Bechtel FEED est. completion 4Q12 Construction estimated to start 2013 Operations estimated Further expansion Existing infrastructure adequate to support an additional 5 th and 6 th train Significant infrastructure in place including storage, marine and pipeline interconnection facilities; pipeline quality natural gas to be sourced from U.S. pipeline network 18
19 Contracted Capacity at SPL Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) Long-term, take-or-pay style commercial contracts equating to ~16 mtpa BG Gulf Coast LNG (1) Gas Natural Fenosa (1) Korea Gas Corporation (1) GAIL (India) Limited (1) Annual Contract Quantity (MMBtu) 286,500, ,500, ,500, ,500,000 Annual Fixed Fees (5) ~$723 MM ~$454 MM ~$548 MM ~$548 MM Fixed Fees $/MMBtu (2) Term (4) $ $3.00 $2.49 $3.00 $ years 20 years 20 years 20 years Guarantor BG Energy Holdings Ltd. Gas Natural SDG S.A. N/A N/A Guarantor Credit Rating (3) A2/A Baa2/BBB Fee During Force Majeure Up to 24 months Up to 24 months A / A1 N/A Baa2/NR/BBB- N/A Contract Start Date Train 1 + additional volumes with Trains 2,3,4 Train 2 Train 3 Train 4 (1) Conditions precedent must be satisfied by December 31, 2012 for BG Group and Gas Natural Fenosa and by June 30, 2013 for KOGAS and GAIL (India) Ltd. or either party can terminate. CPs include financing, regulatory approvals, positive final investment decision, issuance of notice to proceed and entering into common facilities agreements (other than KOGAS and GAIL (India) Ltd.). (2) A portion of the fee is subject to inflation, approximately 15% for BG Group, 13.6% for Gas Natural Fenosa and 15% for KOGAS and GAIL (India) Ltd. (3) Ratings may be changed, suspended or withdrawn at anytime and are not a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. (4) SPAs have a 20 year term with the right to extend up to an additional 10 years. Gas Natural Fenosa has an extension right up to an additional 12 years in certain circumstances. (5) BG will provide annual fixed fees of approximately $520 million for trains 1-2 and $203 million for trains 3-4.
20 Trains 1&2 Financing Trains 1&2 Financing ($ in millions) Sources Uses Debt financing $ 3,626 Capex, allowancies and contingencies $ 4,911 Equity contribution 1,890 Interest during construction 510 Train 1 cash flow 120 Up-front fees and expenses 215 Total Sources $ 5,636 Total Uses $ 5,636 Commitments from 21 banks, financing was oversubscribed Bank group consisted of European, Asian, Canadian and U.S. institutions Ratings: BB+ rating from S&P, Ba3 from Moody s $2.0B equity fully committed and to be fully funded before debt draw $0.5B Cheniere equity funded July 2012 $1.3B Blackstone equity funded Oct 2012 $0.2B Blackstone equity (guaranteed) $3.6B credit facility funding for Trains 1 2 closed Aug year term; 18 year amortization profile L+350 stepping up to L+375 Minimum base case DSCR >2.00x 20 Note: The above represents a single financing scenario. Estimates represent a summary of internal forecasts, are based on current assumptions and are subject to change. Actual performance may differ materially from, and there is no plan to update, the forecast. See Forward Looking Statements slide. See Cheniere Energy, Inc. 8-K filed May 15, 2012 for a more detailed summary of the terms of the Blackstone transaction. See Cheniere Energy, Inc. 8-K filed August 6, 2012 for a more detailed summary of the credit facility.
21 21 Conclusions US gas reserves enormous Low Marginal Cost (stranded gas associated with oil) Gas demand growth limited on domestic market Price impact on world market ( Europe/Asia) much bigger than actual market share of US LNG
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