Transcription

1 Medium Term Energy Market Outlook IEEJ Energy Seminar October 213 Keisuke Sadamori, Director, Energy Markets & Security, IEA

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3 Primary Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels Mtoe *Whereas coal, oil and gas displays Coal primary energy, renewables Oil only refers Gas to power generation

4 OIL

5 Oil: Comfortable Balance mb/d 7. Medium-Term Oil Market Balance Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World Supply Capacity Growth

6 Oil demand: 96.7 mb/d by Global Oil Demand, mb/d OECD, Am ericas OECD, Europe OECD, Asia Oceania Non-OECD

7 Growth led by non-oecd 7.5% Global Oil Demand Growth 5.% 2.5%.% -2.5% -5.% OECD Non-OECD

8 China to lead Global Growth mb/d 12 Chinese Oil Demand Share of the World 13% 1 11% 8 9% 6 7% %

9 Global Liquid Growth mb/d Global Liquids Growth Crude US Light Tight Oil NGLs Non-Conv Biofuels Processing Gain OPEC* Non-OPEC Total * OPEC crude is capacity additions Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC

10 Share of Capex (%) Price Rise Drives Increase in Capex $Billion Annual Capex by Oil Type 1% 9% 8% 7% Total Capex (RHS) 6% 5% Other 4% 3% Tight Oil 14% 7% 2% Deepwater 22% 1% 16% % Oil Sands Source: IEA Analysis of Rystad Energy. Oil deposits only

11 Supply: West Side Story mb/d Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total

12 OPEC Capacity mb/d OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity October 212 May 213

13 OPEC Capacity Growth Iraq Angola UAE Nigeria Libya Venezuela Kuwait Algeria Qatar Ecuador Saudi Arabia Iran Incremental OPEC Crude Production Capacity mb/d

14 Non-OCED lead CDU additions mb/d 3. Crude Distillation Additions OECD China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Other Non-OECD Net Additions

15 Rise of the non-oecd Refining Titans Regional Share of CDU Expansions China 45% Other Asia 14% Latin America 14% Other 5% Middle East 22%

16 US Crude Oil Carloads 1 Carloads Q 9 1 Q 1 1 Q 11 1 Q 12 1 Q 13 estimate Source: Association of American railroads

17 New Map, New Challenges Crude Exports in 218 and Growth in for Key Trade Routes* (million barrels per day) * Excludes Intra-Regional Trade North America.3 (-.8) 3.1 OECD Europe (-.6) 3.9 (-.3) (+.3) (-.9) China 1.2 (+.4) (-1.4) (+.8) (-1).7.3 (+.1) 1.4 (+.7) 6.2 (+.8) Other Asia OECD Pacific (.3).5 (+.4).5 Red number in brackets denotes growth in period (+)

18 GAS

19 Gas Demand by Region (21-218) Bcm Europe North America Asia Pacific Africa non OECD-Asia China FSU Latin America Middle East MTGMR 212

20 Gas Demand Growth by Region (21-218) Bcm Europe North America Asia Pacific Africa non OECD- Asia China FSU Latin America Middle East

21 LNG flows in 212 (bcm)

22 LNG re-exports, mcm Portugal France Brazil Belgium Spain United States

23 Tight LNG Supply LNG liquefaction plants with political instability with declining gas output with surging domestic demand

24 LNG Projects under Construction bcm Australia Indonesia Other Asia Pacific Qatar Other ME Latin America Norway Algeria Angola Other Africa Russia United States LNG with delays

25 LNG backed by Long-Term Contracts bcm Portfolio LNG The rest of the world Other Asia China Japan Capacity

26 Regional Gas Price Disparity

27 Gas Demand in the Transport Sector bcm Asia China Latin America Middle East Africa FSU/Non-OECD Europe OECD

28 Non-Conventional Road Transport Demand 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Natural gas LPG Others

29 RENEWABLES

30 Renewables on Track in Clean Energy Scenarios 8 7 Global renewable electricity generation versus ETP 2DS ETP 2DS Hydro Bioenergy Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar PV Solar CSP Geothermal Ocean MRMR 212 RES-E

31 Non-OECD Leading Growth Global renewable electricity production, by region (TWh)

32 Renewable power spreading out everywhere Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW) This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

33 China accounts for 4% of renewable power growth 2, China renewable power generation (TWh) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Hydro Bioenergy Wind onshore Solar PV Solar CSP Geothermal Ocean Wind offshore

34 Growth of renewable power accelerating 25 Historical cumulative additions (TWh) 25 Forecast cumulative additions (TWh) Geothermal Solar Bioenergy Wind Hydro Geothermal Solar Bioenergy Wind Hydro

35 Global RE capacity additions led by wind 25 Total wind (onshore + offshore) annual capacity additions by region (GW) OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe China Rest of Non-OECD

36 Solar PV growing out of Europe PV Annual Capacity Additions (GW)

37 But other technologies lagging behind TWh Wind offshore generation projection OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe Africa Asia China Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East MTRMR 212 TWh Concentrating solar power generation projection OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe Africa Asia China Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East MTRMR 212

38 Improving Competitiveness 5 Utility scale Small scale

39 RES-E: 6% of new OECD Generation TWh 1 1 OECD incremental gross generation by source and region Total generation Fossil fuels Nuclear Renewables Other Total OECD OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe

40 Over the long term, the power generation mix is set to change TWh 14 Global electricity generation by source, Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear 2 Oil Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 212

41 Global climate-friendly electricity mix by 25 TWh 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - RE 57% RE 57% VRE 22% RE 71% DS 25 High Renewables VRE 32% Ocean Geothermal Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar CSP Solar PV Hydro (incl. pumped storage) Nuclear Biomass w CCS Biomass and waste Oil Natural gas w CCS Natural gas Coal w CCS Coal

42 Four Key Policy Ingredients System Integration Non Economic Barriers Smart Incentives Clear Strategy and Targets

43 Policy uncertainty is the number one risk to reaching a climate friendly power mix Spain solar PV + CSP annual additions (GW) Deep financial incentive cuts and cap for solar PV Assumed moratorium on new projects under Special Regime from Jan 212 onwards Abrupt, retroactive policy changes Annual additions Projected additions US onshore wind annual additions (GW) Uncertainty over PTC renewal at end-212 Assumed expiration of PTC at end-213 Stop & go policies Expiration of federal PTC Annual additions Projected additions

44 Conclusions for policy-making Many renewables no longer require high economic incentives But they do need long-term policies that continue to provide a predictable and reliable market and regulatory framework compatible with societal goals Consistent policy framework more important than specific RE incentive type Competitiveness of renewables depends on market design Fair rules for up-front capital intensive technologies and distributed generation will be key

45 Grid Parity

46 Distributed PV reaching grid parity in some markets USD/MWh 45 Residential solar PV LCOE vs average retail power prices (variable tariff) Average residential electricity price (variable tarif f) Residentialsolar PV, LCOE estimates: Germany Italy California Examples correspond to Southern Germany, Southern California and Southern Italy, based on actual average cost of capital, full load hours and variable tariffs

47 Electricity Security

48 Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP): a two-years work programme Generation Networks Emergency Preparedness Regional Market Integration Demand Response

49 Thank you