2016/17 Natural Gas Outlook
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1 December 7, 2016 Montreal, Quebec 2016/17 Natural Gas Outlook The Northeast Power Coordinating Council General Meeting Stephen Leahy Northeast Gas Association 1.
2 About NGA Non-profit trade association Local gas utilities (LDCs) serving New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania Several interstate pipeline companies LNG importers (Distrigas, Repsol) and LNG trucking companies Over 250 associate member companies, from industry suppliers and contractors to electric grid operators 2.
3 Continued on NGA web site 3.
4 4.
5 PNGTS TransCanada M&NE National Fuel & Empire Iroquois Tennessee Dominion Millennium Stagecoach Algonquin Columbia Transco Texas Eastern Copyright: Northeast Gas Association Prepared by: Novara March
6 Winter Outlook Storage levels in positive position U.S. gas production bit lower this year while Marcellus continues high output LNG imports to region higher Commodity price higher than last year but still in $3/Mcf range Looking ahead, weather, as always, is the biggest variable in supply/price dynamic 6.
7 Storage is Strong U.S. natural gas storage levels as of November 12 were Tcf, 9% above the 5-year average U.S. gas production levels up about 2.5% in 2010 U.S. natural gas storage levels are just under 4 Tcf, 6% above 5-year average. Source: U.S. EIA, Source: U.S. EIA, data released Source: U.S. EIA, data released , through Aug. 2010
8 Price: Recent History Source: U.S. EIA, EIA,
9 Nearby Production Source: U.S. EIA, 7-14 U.S. natural gas production in 2015 set new all-time record: ~75 Bcf/d. Marcellus Shale currently producing 18 Bcf/d. PA is now 2 nd largest gas producing state in U.S
10 Marcellus: Largest U.S. Gas Resource Base Source: U.S. EIA,
11 Canadian Gas Exports to Region 1200 Canadian Natural Gas Exports to Eastern U.S., Bcf * Source: National Energy Board, Canada. *2016 data through Sept. 11.
12 LNG Volumes Imports by New England-Based Terminals LNG Imports, NE Terminals, Distrigas NE Gateway Neptune Bcf/year * Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy/Fossil Energy, * 2016 data thru Sept. 12.
13 Canaport LNG Deliveries Chart: Repsol, based on Repsol and Ventyx. Gas volumes in Dth. 13.
14 LNG Developments Gaz Métro is tripling its liquefaction capability at its E. Montreal plant from 3 to 9 Bcf/yr project expected to be completed this month. Eversource proposing to increase LNG storage capacity in southeastern MA from 0.5 Bcf of storage to 6.8 Bcf, as part of the Access Northeast project Northeast Energy Center (NEC) is a FERC regulated LNG liquefaction, storage and vaporization project proposed to be located in central MA and connected to Tennessee Gas Pipeline. The project sponsors are affiliates of Liberty Utilities and Northstar Industries. State of Maine issued RFP this fall for proposals to increase LNG storage to enhance electrical and natural gas reliability in the State. As of Sept. 2016, for this current year the U.S. has exported 106 Bcf of LNG, imported 64 Bcf. 14.
15 Northeast States Lead U.S. in Gas Efficiency Investments 9 Northeast states = $544 million investment in 2015 Equal to 39% of U.S. total of $1.4 billion Source: ACEEE, 2016 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard, released Sept
16 Gas Customer Base in Region Continues to Grow Natural Gas = +1 million Heating Oil = -1.4 Million 16.
17 New Sendout Records Set in Mild Recent Winter New England gas LDCs set a new sendout record of 4 Bcf on Feb. 14, 2016 (a Sunday) New York State set a new record for gas demand on Feb. 13, 2016 of 6.6 Bcf Gas utilities experiencing rising design day demand 17.
18 Projected Power Sector Additions by Fuel Type GENERATOR PROPOSALS IN THE ISO NEW ENGLAND QUEUE Percentage, Sept NEW YORK ISO SYSTEM, 2016 Proposed Power Projects by Fuel Type Megawatts 6,000 Wind, 40 Natural Gas, 53 5,000 4,000 3,000 Gas = approx. 65% Other, 7 2,000 1,000 0 Natural Gas Dual Fuel Wind Other PJM, 2015 Queued Capacity by Fuel Type, Percentage 18.
19 Coordination with Power Systems NGA maintains joint Electric-Gas Operating Committee with 3 ISOs in region Good communication between ISOs and pipeline control rooms Firm vs. non-firm transportation arrangements well-understood at this point 19.
20 Constraints 20.
21 Growing Opposition to Energy Infrastructure 21.
22 Pipeline Reversals Fall 2015: U.S. government denies permit for Keystone oil pipeline from Canada April 2016: Kinder Morgan suspends Tennessee s proposed Northeast Energy Direct project in New England market April 2016: NY Dept. of Environment denies water permit for Constitution Pipeline (proposal approved by FERC in 2014) August October 2016: MA Supreme Judicial Court rules against EDCs contracting for gas pipeline capacity; RI PUC puts proposal on hold; NH PUC rules against it is an approach that, in practice, would violate New Hampshire law following the restructuring of the electric industry Fall 2016: U.S. government temporarily halts construction on Dakota Access oil pipeline 22. in North Dakota
23 Source: Bloomberg News article,
24 Proposed Projects in Region 24.
25 Delays at the State Review Process Dominion s New Market Project: To serve National Grid gas utility in upstate NY; received FERC certificate, awaiting permits from NY DEC Tennessee s CT Expansion: To serve three natural gas utilities in CT, approved by FERC, awaiting permits from MA DEP 25.
26 Comments Gas utilities in region continue to see growth on systems and to plan infrastructure investments to meet that growth. Natural gas continues to be essential part of region s power system and will balance / enable increasing renewable additions. Additional pipeline infrastructure needed to meet demand; projects in development; siting challenges on the increase. 26.
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