Transmission System Long-term View Alberta Power Industry Consortium

Transcription

1 Transmission System Long-term View Alberta Power Industry Consortium Jerry Mossing Vice-President Transmission Planning and Performance November 6, 2013

2 Power Industry Structure in Alberta Minister of Energy Appoints AESO Board Members, MSA & AUC Chair Electric Utilities Act Balancing Pool Independent System Operator (AESO) Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) Market Surveillance Administrator (MSA) Generators Transmission Facility Owners Distribution Facility Owners Retailers Public 2

3 System Reinforcements Underway Public 3

4 Context The Role of Electricity Electricity is the facilitator of economic development in Alberta. Enables: Enables: (2008 Provincial Energy Strategy) $hundreds of billions in oil sands projects/10 years GDP growth from $300 to $400 billion/10 years Electricity Industry $189 billion in capital projects $400 Billion GDP by % growth until 2032 Public 4

5 Energy Consumption by Customer Sector Customer Sector Electricity Consumption 2011 Total Consumption = 69,495 GWh Residential 13% Farm 3% Oilsands 17% Commercial 20% Industrial (without Oilsands) 47% Public Source: ERCB, AESO 5

6 Average Alberta Internal Load (AIL): Load and Alberta GDP Average AIL (MW) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Average AIL GDP , , ,000 50,000 0 Alberta GDP ($2002 Millions) Public 6

7 Load Forecast 140, LTO Customer Sector Forecast 120, ,000 Forecast Energy (GWh) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Industrial (without Oilsands) Oilsands Residential Commercial Farm Public 7

8 Oilsands Investment Dominates Oilsands Infrastructure Power Institutional Commercial/Retail Pipelines Residential Tourism/Recreation Oil & Gas Commercial/Retail & Residential Other Industrial Biofuels Chemicals & Petrochemicals Mining Forestry & Related Agriculture & Related Telecommunications Value of Alberta Capital Projects ($ millions) $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 Public Source: Government of Alberta, February

9 Customer Connections AESO Projects Energizing in the next 2 Years In-service Quarter 2013, Q3 2013, Q4 2014, Q1 2014, Q2 2014, Q3 / Q4 Public 9

10 16,000 MW of Generation Projects Announced for Alberta Substantial generation development in last ten years Over 16,000 MW generation capacity additions announced for Alberta Indication of the strong interest in developing generation in Alberta s energy only market Forecast considers: Planned projects Generation economics Policy implications One-on-one consultation Technology development Announced Generation Capacity Generation Capacity (MW) Other Coal-fired Future Hydro Cogeneration Wind Gas-fired Public 10

11 Generation Mix Evolving Over Long-term Public 11

12 Transmission Planning Process Need Drivers Need Assessment Develop and Screen Alternatives Recommended Alternative Specify: Ensure: Reliability Support: Energy Only Market System Studies Technology Termination Points Capacity In-Service Date Relative: Technical Economic Environmental Enable: Future Generation Development Serve: Future Load Growth Meet: Legislated Requirements Policy Result in high level: Capacity Requirement In-Service Date n Considerations: Relative losses impact Relative Costs High level land/environmental impact Alignment with policy Long-term nature of asset Asymmetric risk of building too late vs. too early Stakeholder consultation Construction/integration schedules Public 12

13 What is an Adequate Level of Reliability? The System Is controlled to stay within acceptable limits Performs acceptably after credible contingencies Contains instability and cascading outages when they occur Facilities are protected from unacceptable damage Integrity can be restored promptly if it is lost, and Has the ability to supply the aggregate electric power and energy requirements of the electricity consumers at all times, taking into account scheduled and reasonably expected unscheduled outages of system components Public 13

14 Current State: Real-Time Market Public 14

15 AIES Cutplanes Public 15

16 AIES Constraints Public 16

17 TMR GWh Usage History TMR dispatched declined 68 per cent from 2011 to 2012* Decline attributed to recent transmission reinforcements in the Rainbow Lake Area (RLA)**. TMR only required during line outages in the area. *AESO 2012 Market Statistics ** Public 17

18 Operational Challenges - Wind Integration 350 Wind Ramp Event July 30th, MW :00 18:10 18:20 18:30 18:40 18:50 19:00 19:10 19:20 19:30 19:40 19:50 20:00 20:10 20:20 20:30 20:40 20:50 Time Wind Generation Public 18

19 Exploring Innovative Technologies Alberta supports the development of all power generation technologies A variety of projects are being explored: Energy storage Solar Facilitate increased integration of renewable energy resources Alberta receives more hours of sunshine than anywhere else in Canada (2,500 hours per year) Development of both residential and commercial scale projects Waste heat Capture waste heat from pipeline compressors to produce electricity Geothermal Public 19

20 Smart Grid Characterized as the modernization of Alberta s electricity system, through the application of advanced control and information technology, to meet the future needs of the province. Inclusivity Applies to the entire electricity system including generation, transmission, distribution, and consumers Reliability Provides enhanced ability to warn of and identify potential failures, take remedial action before users are affected, self-heals Security Withstands cyber attacks Efficiency Improved communication and coordination between utilities and ISOs, may translate into savings in provision of electric service Public 20

21 Optical Ground Wire (OPGW) Public 21

22 Smart Grid in Alberta AESO Telecommunications Planning OPGW Load Shed Services for import (LSSi) Automated Dispatch and Messaging System (ADaMS) Dynamic Thermal Line Ratings (DTLR) Energy Management System (EMS) High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) Other ENMAX: Alternative Energy Fortis: Automated Meter Reading Public 22

23 Rising to Future Challenges As our system grows... What challenges will we face in the future? How will technology help us address them? Public 23

24 Thank you