Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Training and Research Workshop

Transcription

1 PROGRAM Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Training and Research Workshop 21 st 24 th March 2016 VENUE: G Smart Water Research Centre Edmund Rice Drive, Southport QLD

2 Presenters Professor B. Rose Professor Rose is an international expert in water microbiology, water quality and public health safety. She has been involved in the investigation of numerous waterborne outbreaks worldwide. Her work has examined new molecular methods for waterborne pathogens and zoonotic agents such as Cryptosporidium and enteric viruses and source tracking techniques. Prof. Rose has contributed substantially to the development of the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) framework and is the developer and curator of the QMRA wiki. She is considered one of the leading international experts in this field. Dr Weir An Assistant Professor at Temple University, Dr. Weir is the Associate Director for the Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA). His research includes advancing environmental and engineered systems modelling techniques for water and air hazards. Dr Jade Mitchell Dr Jade Mitchell is an Assistant Professor at Michigan State University and has extensive experience in developing and providing training in QMRA tools and models. She is a collaborating principal investigator in the Centre for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA). Dr Susan Petterson Dr Susan Petterson is the Director of Water and Health and is a senior risk assessment expert who has expertise in water-related QMRA both nationally and internationally. She has been involved with the WHO working group for harmonisation of microbial risk assessment since 2009, and is the lead author of their QMRA guidance document to be launched later this year. Susan serves as an editor for the Journal of Water and Health and is based in Port Stephens, New South Wales.

3 Day 1: Monday 21 st Topic: Introduction to QMRA :15 Welcome Anne 9:15 10:00 Introduction and background to QMRA Where QMRA came from Applications of QMRA for Public Health Its importance in relation to climate change 10:00 10:30 WHO/QMRA and Water Safety Management Introduction to how risk assessment and QMRA found its way into the WHO guidelines How this has translated into Australian water quality guideline Susan WHO QMRA toolbox and applications including climate change projections 11:00 11:30 Dose-response Introductory lecture on the principles of dose-response, covering a broad range of pathogens Types of data that models are fitted to (challenge studies, outbreaks, animal studies) What are the strengths and limitations of these models? 11:30-12:30 QMRA Framework Problem Formulation Exposure Assessment Health Effects Assessment Susan Risk Characterisation Simple examples 1:30 2:00 Understanding Uncertainty Susan 2:00 3:00 Introduction to the QMRA Wiki and worked examples of real case studies Several real-world case studies to demonstrate why QMRA was applied, how QMRA was applied, and what the outcome was for risk managers Jade/ 3:30 4:00 Risk Management and Communication The interface between science/managers and science/policy 4:00 Panel Discussion (Q&A) All 5.00 Refreshments and Networking

4 Day 2: Tuesday 22 nd Topic: Quantitative Analysis 9:00 9:15 Introduction to three-day intensive and case studies Jade 9:15 10:00 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:45 Overview of Statistics and Data Analysis Introduction to probability distributions as models Continuous and discrete data Optimizing a probability distribution Linking Math, Engineering and Microbiology The use of simulations in engineering and physical sciences Moving from sparse information to infer-able simulated outputs Interpretation of microbial datasets for QMRA Quantifying pathogen concentration Quantifying removal performance Why statistics are important Jade Susan 11:45 12:30 Case Study 1: Cryptosporidium in Recreational Waters Jade 1:30 3:00 3:15 4:30 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis (demonstrated through case study 1) Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation Example of Monte Carlo in excel/crystal Ball to demonstrate the inner workings of a Monte Carlo model 2 dimensional simulations in R Case Study 2: Wastewater reuse Regulatory perspectives Australian guidelines for water recycling /Jade /Jade/Susan 4:30 Panel Discussion (Q&A) All 6:30 Meet for conference dinner

5 Day 3: Wednesday 23 rd Topic: Dose-Response and Exposure Assessment 9:00 9:45 9:45-10:30 11:00 11:45 Dose Response Modelling Using animal or human data Using epidemiological data Selecting models Fitting models Pathogen inactivation and persistence modelling Model fitting vs T90 Achieving log reductions Australian reuse guidelines Transport modelling Drinking water distribution system Simple hydrodynamic models Jade 11:45 12:30 Case Study 3: Legionella Jade 1:30 2:15 Exposure Factors and Calculations Short interactive examples 2:15 3:00 Case Study 4: Spray Park 3:30 4:00 Risk assessment and opportunistic organisms Considerations for modelling Legionella, Mycobacterium, Naegleria Can QMRA contribute to management of Naegleria in remote water supplies? 4:00 Panel Discussion (Q&A) All

6 Day 4: Thursday 24 th Topic: Risk Characterisation, Management and Communication 9:00 10:30 11:00 12:30 1:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 Risk Perception and Communication The challenge of communicating with a non-technical audience (combined lecture and exercises) Case studies: Individual/group task Bring your own case study, or join a group, to work through the QMRA framework for a specific setting. Case studies: Reporting back to the group QMRA Needs and Emerging Issues Emerging pathogens Potential impacts of climate change Jade //Jade //Jade 4:00 Panel Discussion (Q&A) All 5:00 Workshop Close