The world will look very different in 2030 Meeting Aerospace Industry Challenges in a Changing World

Transcription

1 The world will look very different in 2030 Meeting Aerospace Industry Challenges in a Changing World Dr. Nashed A. Youssef CASI President Manager of Advanced Engineering Pratt & Whitney Canada 1

2 AEROSPACE INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Oil Supply, Demand & Environment Globalization & World Economy Product Support & Renewal 2

3 AEROSPACE INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Oil Supply, Demand & Environment Globalization & World Economy Product Support & Renewal 3

4 THE WORLD S SYSTEM IS AT A CROSSROADS Today s global trends in energy consumption are very challenging and most likely unsustainable in the long run Environmentally Economically Socially 4

5 WORLD ENERGY DEMAND 1980 TO

6 CHANGE IN OIL DEMAND BY REGION 2007 TO

7 WORLD OIL PRODUCTION 1990 TO

8 ALTERNATE FUEL TECHNOLOGIES Corn Sugar cane Switchgrass Cellulose Ethanol Synthetic Jet Fuel Butanol Willow Biodiesel Bio-Jet Micro algae Others Liquid methane Methanol 8

9 ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES FOR AVIATION Local air quality Community noise Hazardous materials Water quality Fuel availability Global climate 9

10 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT FROM AVIATION Contrail generation of persistent Cirrus Clouds Aviation Smog Suspected impact on weather / temperatures NASA scientists found that cirrus clouds, formed by contrails from aircraft engine exhaust, are capable of increasing average surface temperatures enough to account for a warming trend in the United States that occurred between 1975 and Research continues. Aviation contributes 100% of Contrail / Aviation Smog 10

11 SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES Carbon taxes for aviation and / or Cap and trade system for aviation 11

12 P&WC s GREEN ENGINE PRODUCTS & PROCESSES Has lowest possible noise impact Contains green materials Has lowest possible emission impact Manufactured and serviced using green processes Material efficient (metal buy-to-fly) Involves green suppliers and partners Designed for serviceability, reusability, recyclability Designed with human factors in mind 12

13 P&WC s EMISSION REDUCTION TECHNOLOGY 2015 VISION 100 Conventional % of ICAO 1996 NO x Limit TALON I TALON II PW307 TALON III ATFI rig TALON X

14 NOISE EMISSIONS EPNdB 40 Chapter EPNdB cumulative noise reduction over 30 years 0-20 Chapter 3 Chapter 4-40 Growth in number of flights Increased proximity: airport residential areas New more stringent noise standards (Chapter 4) as of 2007 Additional reductions targeted 14

15 AEROSPACE INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Oil Supply, Demand & Environment Globalization & World Economy Product Support & Renewal 15

16 THE MARKET IS GLOBAL Estimated Aerospace 5 years growth + 20% + 10% + 60% + 20% + 10% Growth in non-traditional sites 16

17 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY WORLD REGION 2007 TO

18 AIRLINE PASSENGERS TO/FROM THE US 2007 TO

19 A TALENT CHALLENGE The World is Changing Number of Graduates/ year 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Engineering Graduates China India USA Canada Engineering graduates China & India growing Russia & Europe declining Canada stable but small Canadian Engineering graduates Favor generalist positions Less desire to specialize Higher career expectations 19

20 WORKFORCE 20,000 Retiring Engineers Aerospace engineers Graduating Engineers

21 A TALENT CHALLENGE Values have changed a re-adaptation to today s realities Canadian Engineering graduates generations X & Y Low loyalty saw it backfire on their parents throw after use employee counter-balanced with throw after use employer Favor generalist training more opportunities resilient career Less desire to specialize narrow opportunities poor investment Higher short term career expectations long term is too unknown Less keen on long hours more time for fulfilling life outside work work smarter, not harder Strengths computers, teamwork, multi tasking, adaptability 21

22 AEROSPACE INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Oil Supply, Demand & Environment Globalization & World Economy Product Support & Renewal 22

23 INDUSTRY AND ENGINEERING EVOLUTION Industry Engineering 1970 s Technology Focus Sequential Engineering 1990 s Downsizing & Re-organization Concurrent Engineering 2000 s Process Innovation & Integration Global Integration Engineering 23

24 INDUSTRY NEEDS - BREADTH AND DEPTH Integration Systems Engineering Value Engineering Innovation Technology and Process Risk definition and management Global acumen: mobility, cultural understanding, language, partnership catalyst 24

25 FUEL EFFICIENT TECHNOLOGIES 40% 30% 15% 25

26 WITH CONVENTIONAL ARCHITECTURES SFC IMPROVEMENTS ARE LEVELING OFF Average historical improvement rate for the industry: - Components +0.2% per year - TSFC - 0.5% per year (incl. BPR benefits) - these rates are leveling off 0.9 Altitude Performance 40K, 0.8M, ISA, MCR - Uninstalled % TSFC (lb/hr/lb) Today + 10 Years FN (lb) 26

27 FUEL ECONOMY OF GAS TURBINE AIRCRAFT APPLICATIONS 27

28 WILL NEED TO DEPART FROM CONVENTIONAL ENGINE DESIGNS Geared turbofans simultaneously enable low noise & better SFC Propfans stopped by high noise problem yet unresolved drives the timeframe 28

29 ... AND PROBABLY ALSO DEPART FROM CONVENTIONAL AIRCRAFT DESIGNS New aircraft concepts would change the requirements for engines 29

30 P&WC s PRODUCT MANDATE Turboprops Turboshafts Turbofans PW600 PT6A PW200 JT15D PW100 PT6T/B PW500 PW150 PT6C PW300 PW ,500 shp 600 2,200 shp ,000 lbf Over 66,000 engines produced 30

31 P&WC s GLOBAL FACILITIES AND CUSTOMERS Headquarters Production Service Research and development Customer base 31

32 PW600 FROM TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATOR TO ENGINE FAMILY Certified 2006 Certified 2006 Certified 2008 Cessna Mustang Eclipse 500 Embraer Phenom 100 Technology demonstrator PW625F 2,500 lbs PW615F 1,350 lbs PW610F 900 lbs PW617F 1,615 lbs

33 PW800 P&WC s NEXT GENERATION POWERPLANT FAMILY Diagnostics & prognostics Advanced fan Increased functionality FADEC Low emissions TALON combustor NOx 50% CO 35% Latest noise reduction technology Advanced integration Advanced materials Improved turbine aerodynamics 33

34 PW800 LEVERAGES TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENT Common Core Philosophy Common Core Architecture Small core Scale Large core Geared Turbofan Regional Jets Single Aisle Advanced Turbofan Large Business Jets Ultra Long Range Business Jets 34

35 THANK YOU! 35