H 2 as an Energy Carrier: Pathways and Strategies

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1 H 2 as an Energy Carrier: Pathways and Strategies Prof. Joan Ogden Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis Presented at the California Biomass Collaborative Forum Sacramento, CA March 1, 2005

2 Why Consider Hydrogen as a Future Energy Carrier? Zero or near-zero emissions at point of use Low to zero well-to-wheels emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases H 2 can be made from widely available primary resources (fossil, renewable, nuclear) H 2 is widely used today in chemical industries (~2% of world energy use ->H 2 production ; strong technical base exists for H 2 production, storage and delivery). Rapid progress in H 2 and fuel cell technologies H 2 might enable new products and services, transforming the way we produce and use energy. H 2 is one of the only long-term fuel that allows radical reductions in GHG emissions, air pollutant emissions and oil use.

3 Barriers to a H 2 Economy current lack of a widespread H 2 infrastructure current high cost of H 2 end-use technologies Technical maturity: need to develop emerging tech and adapt current H 2 technologies for a H 2 energy economy (e.g. fuel cells, H 2 storage for vehicles, small scale H 2 production systems, long term, low-cost zero carbon H 2 supply). Chicken & Egg Problem for vehicles. (Match H 2 supply and demand during transition.) Lack of policies reflecting external costs of energy

4 H 2 SUPPLY PATHWAYS Like electricity, hydrogen is an energy carrier produced Wind from primary energy resources Solar Biomass Coal w/co2 Sequestration Natural Gas Nuclear

5 FULL FUEL CYCLE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (Normalized to Adv. Lightweight 46 mpg Gasoline ICEV) Gasoline ICEVs Fuel Cell Vehicles Hybrid ICEVs Fuel Cell Veh. Adv. ICE Hybrid Vehicles Adv.ICEVs Source: Ogden. Williams, Larson, Energy Policy, 2004.

6 LONG-TERM VISIONS OF H 2 SUPPLY AND CHALLENGES H 2 from renewables (wind or solar electrolysis, biomass gasification), issue is cost rather than technical feasibility or resources. Nuclear H 2 issues are cost (electrolytic H 2 ), technical feasibility (water splitting systems powered by nuclear heat). Same waste and proliferation issues as nuclear power. Fossil H 2 with CO 2 capture and sequestration near zero emissions, relatively low cost, assuming nearby CO 2 disposal sites, and large scale hydrogen production. Much unknown about potential environmental impacts and feasibility of CO 2 sequestration.

7 HYDROGEN DEMAND IN FOUR SCENARIOS 120 Hydrogen Demand in in Four Four Scenarios H 2 vehicle Fraction Million Metric Tonnes H 2 /y (Energy ~ Billion gallons gasoline/y) Metric Tons (10^6) President's H2 Initiative 2050 Study EIA Reference Case PNGV Low 100% 50% Uncertainties (technology, policy, market pull) => difficult to project future H 2 demands

8 Million Metric Tons Tonnes (10^6) H 2 /y 120 (Energy ~ Billion gallons gasoline/y) Primary Energy for US H 2 Demand PRIMARY ENERGY TO MEET H 2 DEMAND Hydrogen Demand in in Four Four Scenarios President's H2 Initiative 2050 Study EIA Reference Case PNGV Low Percent of current US use to make H 2 for LDVs NG Coal Wind*Bio* * > class 3 wind 100 million H 2 vehicles w/ 2-3 X today s gasoline vehicle fuel economy ** fraction of range + pastureland required for H2 via gasification

9 WHERE WILL H 2 COME FROM? Near term: Natural gas transitional source for H 2 in US 10-40% GHG emissions reduction v. Advanced gasoline vehicles Small impact on natural gas use, at H 2 use <2025 Long term: Ample resources for nearzero GHG emission H 2 production in US, globally Many solutions for H 2 supply: depends on level of demand, resource availability, geography.

10 HOW MUCH WILL IT COST? Several hundred to several thousand $ per vehicle for mature H 2 refueling infrastructure. (Near term costs higher. Costs decrease w/learning, scale) Shell estimates 11,000 H 2 stations needed nationwide for coverage, initial cost $12 B Full implementation of H 2 infrastructure $100sB But costs to maintain, expand conventional transport fuels infrastructure also large. Delivered H 2 cost range ~$2.5-4/kg for mature H 2 economy. With efficient (2-3 X) H2 FCV, fuel cost per mile < current cost for gasoline cars. (near term H 2 costs higher) (energy in 1 gallon gasoline ~ energy in 1 kg H2)

11 CURRENT US H 2 INFRASTRUCTURE US HYDROGEN PRODUCTION FOR ONSITE CHEMICAL AND REFINERY APPLICATIONS US MERCHANT HYDROGEN DELIVERY INFRASTRUCTURE NG Now: 1.5 EJ/yr (4.1 million GJ/day) Projections for 2010 : 6 EJ/yr (16.4 million GJ/day) NG LH2 H2 TRUCK DELIVERY: 36,000 GJ/day LH2 PIPELINE DELIVERY: 66,000 GJ/day Merchant H2 infrastructure could supply enough energy to fuel about 1-2 million H2 fuel cell vehicles 1% of US primary energy use and 5% of natural gas use goes to H2 production. Industrial H2 could fuel 10 s of millions of cars Current US merchant H2 system could serve ~ 1% of US cars

12 Refueling Stations for Gasoline and Alternative Fuels

13 Penetration of Major US Transportation Infrastructures time constants: years

14 California H2 Highway Network Provide H2 fuel to vehicles statewide by 2010 Renewable H2 production encouraged Blueprint Panel recommendations -> Governor early 2005

15 Case study for CA H2 Highway Network: 17 planned H2 stations + 23 fleet sites SCAG Region Station dot diameter ~ 3.5 miles Legend Planned and Existing Stations 23 CNG sties Miles Kilometers Source: M. Nicholas, ITS-Davis, for CA H2 Highway Blueprint Plan 2004.

16 17 planned H2 stations + 43 fleet sites + 40 largest cities +100 gasoline locations Station dot diameter ~ 3.5 miles Legend SCAG Region Planned and Existing Stations 43 CNG, 40 cities, 100 gas sites All retail stations (3961) Miles Kilometers

17 Ave. Travel Time to Nearest Station Deployment Scenario H2 at 1% of gasoline sta. => 10 minutes; 3% => 5 minutes 18 Average Time to the Nearest Station in Freeflow Traffic (min) Selecting from Gasoline Locations Planned and Existing Stations CNG Stations Included Gasoline Stations Included Number of Hydrogen Stations

18 H 2 from Biomass in CA California produces approximately 43 million BDT of waste biomass every year 20.5 million BDT of agriculture residue 18 million BDT of forest residue 4.5 million BDT of urban biomass Gasification-based routes can offer ~60% energy conversion efficiency biomass H2 1 bone dry tonne biomass (18 GJ) 11 GJ H2 ~ 80 kg H2 H2 Fuel cell car (50 mpg equiv, 10,000 mi/y) uses ~200 kg H2/y 1 million BDT biomass H2 for 0.4 Million cars CA has ~ 25 million cars. To provide H2 to 20% of these cars would require 12.5 million BDT of biomass/year

19 HOW SOON COULD H 2 MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE? Time to change energy system ~ decades. H 2 end-use technologies need more development before entering mass markets, and time to penetrate markets. It will be several decades before hydrogen could reduce emissions and oil use on a global scale. (local impacts sooner) Beyond 2025, potential for large impact of H 2 technologies on reducing emissions. Potential to transform energy production and use

20 ACTIONS TO ENABLE A H 2 ECONOMY RD&D : Fuel cells H 2 storage for vehicles Small scale H 2 production systems Advanced vehicle systems (ICEs, hybrids. FCVs) Low-cost zero-c energy supply (elec, H 2, fuels) Demonstrate/enable H 2 infrastructure Demonstrate technology Codes and standards Infrastructure transition cost barrier Strategies for H2 infrastructure Policies reflecting external costs of energy (near term->long term)

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