Understanding the Massachusetts RPS. Eugenia Gibbons, Mass Energy Consumers Alliance & Joel Wool, Clean Water Action

Transcription

1 Understanding the Massachusetts RPS WEDNESDAY, JUNE 21, 2017 Eugenia Gibbons, Mass Energy Consumers Alliance & Joel Wool, Clean Water Action

2 Agenda Introduction to Massachusetts current Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) RPS and GWSA Compliance Review of key findings from recent RPS analysis by Synapse Energy Economics and Sustainable Energy Advantage Strengthening the RPS: Key takeaways and messaging Next steps Questions & Answers 2

3 Webinar Logistics Everyone is muted to avoid background noise Questions may be sent via chat feature RPS Webinar - daytime Wed, Jun 21, :00 PM - 1:00 PM EDT Please join from your computer, tablet or smartphone. You can use your computers audio (recommended) or dial in using your phone at: 1 (571) Access Code:

4 What is an RPS? Renewable Portfolio Standards are the foundation for clean energy markets and are a proven policy tool to support successful, cost-effective renewable energy development at the state level. The benefits of Renewable Portfolio Standards include: Massachusetts is one of 29 states and Washington, DC that has an RPS in place. Source: Wiser, et al A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of US Renewable Portfolio Standards. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 4 (LBNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

5 RPS: Driver of Renewable Energy Development Promotes energy diversity; Spurs local/regional clean energy job growth; Displaces GHG-emitting resources like natural gas (key climate strategy); and Stabilizes energy prices (reducing vulnerability to price volatility inherent to natural gas). Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, RPS Standards and Goals (April 2017). Interactive map available online at 5

6 Massachusetts RPS RPS is an essential driver of clean energy development. 6

7 How much electricity does the MA RPS represent? MA peak demand roughly 13,500 MW in 2016 Retail electricity sales per year roughly 48 million MWh 7

8 Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) RECs represent the green attributes associated with clean energy generation. Green attribute is separate from electricity generated. 1 REC = 1MWh Electricity suppliers buy as many RECs per year as the RPS dictates. 8

9 Class I Resources Need RECs Electricity suppliers buy RECs to demonstrate compliance with the RPS. Renewable developers rely on revenue generated from the sale of RECs to help make projects financeable. The RPS signals sustained demand for renewable resources. Class I REC sales are critical for the development of New England renewable energy projects. 9

10 Massachusetts Climate Commitments Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) mandates economy wide GHG emission reductions of 25% by 2020, 80% by 2050 relative to 1990 levels. MA EEA reports that we are currently at 21% below 1990 levels. 10

11 MA s clean energy transformation. 100% renewable energy starts with a more aggressive RPS requirement. 11

12 Integral to GWSA Compliance GWSA required GHG emission reductions: 80% x 2050 Composition of electricity supply under current RPS: 45% Class I by 2050 Accelerating clean energy development in MA/New England is integral to complying with GWSA. 12

13 What s next for MA s RPS? It s time to increase the RPS to help maintain MA s leadership on clean energy and climate. What are the implications? 13

14 RPS Analysis: Modeled Scenarios Medium natural gas price sensitivity High natural gas price sensitivity High electrification sensitivity Base Case (+1% MA RPS) Base Case, Medium natural gas price Base Case, High natural gas price Base Case, High electrification +2% MA RPS MA Class I RPS increases to 2% per year in 2018, Medium natural gas price MA Class I RPS increases to 2% per year in 2018, High natural gas price MA Class I RPS increases to 2% per year in 2018, High electrification +2% MA RPS and +1.5% CT RPS MA Class I RPS increases to 2.0% per year in 2018, CT Class I RPS increases to 1.5% per year in 2021 Medium natural gas price MA Class I RPS increases to 2.0% per year in 2018, CT Class I RPS increases to 1.5% per year in 2021 High natural gas price MA Class I RPS increases to 2.0% per year in 2018, CT Class I RPS increases to 1.5% per year in 2021 High electrification +3% MA RPS and +1.5% CT RPS MA Class I RPS increases to 3.0% per year in 2018, CT Class I RPS increases to 1.5% per year in 2021 Medium natural gas price MA Class I RPS increases to 3.0% per year in 2018, CT Class I RPS increases to 1.5% per year in 2021 High natural gas price MA Class I RPS increases to 3.0% per year in 2018, CT Class I RPS increases to 1.5% per year in 2021 High electrification 14

15 RPS Analysis: Key Findings 2017 Synapse SEA In order for the RPS to continue to be a market-based policy that drives long-term, cost-effective renewable investments, a technical fix will have to be applied. Under a Base Case, the supply for RECs in New England exceeds the REC demand 15

16 RPS Analysis: Key Findings Increasing the RPS level to 2 percent per year brings demand for RECS into balance with anticipated supply through 2030 But, this scenario does not result in significant new, incremental renewable additions over and above those driven by new procurements and distributed generation incentives Increasing the RPS even more (whether by increasing the Connecticut RPS or by increasing the MA RPS to 3 percent per year) drives new, incremental renewables. MA +2% and CT +1.5% would result in 2.0 GW of new renewables by 2030 MA +3% and CT +1.5% would result in 4.1 GW of new renewables by 2030 Higher levels of renewables lead to decrease wholesale energy prices Renewables (with marginal operating costs of $0/MWh) displaces fossil generation, and can decrease the average wholesale energy price by up to 3 percent per year In the face of high natural gas prices, increasing the diversity of our electricity mix through more renewables can reduce wholesale energy costs of $2.1 billion through

17 RPS Analysis: Key Findings Increasing the RPS can drive jobs in New England: In the MA+2% case, reduced wholesale energy prices offset increased REC prices, resulting in zero jobs added or lost In the MA +3% and CT +1.5% case, we observe 37,000 cumulative jobs added through 2030, or about 3,000 jobs per year Increasing the RPS can help meet emission reduction goals: In our Base Case, electric sector CO 2 emissions are reduced by 60 percent, relative to 1990 Other cases see electric sector CO 2 emission reductions of up to 71 percent All-sector emission are reduced between 27 and 33 percent, relative to 1990 Increasing the RPS has a moderate impact on monthly bills Depending on the RPS level, monthly electric bills for residential ratepayers in MA would rise between 15 and $2 per month, relative to a Base Case 17

18 Strengthening the RPS Increasing the RPS would: Align policy objectives; Restore balance between demand for renewable energy and its supply; and Affirm Massachusetts commitment to a clean energy transition. Increases are necessary to maintain desired clean energy trajectory. Study demonstrates that we MUST increase the RPS by at least 2%. 18

19 Achievable Target: 50 x 30 Easier to message Supported by Synapse/SEA analysis Acadia Center s Energy Vision

20 What might the naysayers say? Are there sufficient resources available to meet an increase in the RPS? Additional renewable energy is too expensive. Won t an increase in the RPS will drive up the cost of electricity in Massachusetts? Expensive electricity is a job killer. Won t this make it worse? Massachusetts is already a national leader. 20

21 Pending Legislation Bill Number Title Lead Sponsor H.3634 An Act accelerating the renewable energy portfolio standard Connolly H.1747 An Act to increase renewable energy Haddad H.2700 An Act to increase the renewable portfolio standard and ensure compliance with the Global Warming Solutions Act Khan S An Act expediting the transition to a renewable energy portfolio S.1849 An Act Transitioning Massachusetts to 100 Percent Renewable Energy Several RPS bills have been filed this session. Donoghue Eldridge S.1846 An act relative to solar power and the green economy Eldridge S.1876 An act relative to Enhancing RPS standards Pacheco S.1873 An act relative to solar siting. Pacheco 21

22 Next Steps Expecting a Fall 2017 hearing on legislation In meantime, trainings on RPS with goal of preparing for/scheduling constituent meetings. Encourage all to contact legislators, draft LTEs/OpEds in support of 50 x 30 goal. Contact Eugenia and Joel for help with this. Other key partners in outreach include MPF and Sierra Club. 22

23 Q & A Use the chat function to ask your questions. 23

24 Contact Info Eugenia Gibbons , Joel Wool , 24

25 RPS Analysis: Modeling Approach Synapse Energy Economics and Sustainable Energy Advantage were tasked with: 1. Examining the impacts of the current RPS policy under anticipated market conditions, and 2. Examining the impacts of potential changes in the RPS policies of Massachusetts and Connecticut The consulting group worked with: An advisory working group, including members from Mass Energy, NECEC, and others Academic reviewers from Boston University, Tufts University, and UMass-Boston Synapse and SEA used: SEA s REMO model to project renewable builds and REC prices under varying market conditions The EnCompass model to project dispatch and wholesale energy prices, given the level of renewables The IMPLAN model to estimate job impacts of enacting different levels of RPS 25

26 RPS Analysis: Base Case Assumptions Category Assumption Electric sales ISO-NE s forecast for electric demand from CELT 2016 Energy efficiency Non-renewable unit additions Unit retirements Incremental transmission RPS policies Non-RPS renewable policies Natural gas price Carbon dioxide emission caps All New England states maintain their current levels of energy efficiency All under construction plants, and all plants that have cleared the most recent ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction All plants that have announced retirement dates (e.g., Brayton Point, Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station) Transmission build in line with the most recent ISO-NE Forward Capacity Auction All states in New England maintain existing RPS policies with no changes State goals for distributed generation are met for ZRECs, SMART, REGrowth, etc.; MA s requirements under MA Chapter 188 Section 83C and 83D (new offshore wind and new clean energy resources) and long-term contracting requirements in CT and RI are fulfilled; MA s proposed Clean Energy Standard is in effect; 600 MW new battery storage by 2020 Medium natural gas price based on 2017 Annual Energy Outlook Reference case RGGI is maintained at 2020 level in all years after 2020; MassDEP s proposed in-state CO 2 emission cap is met 26