University of Vermont Transportation Research Center

Transcription

1 Vehicles Transportation and GHG and Emissions Carbon Rubenstein School of the Environment and Natural Resources April 17, 2008 Richard Watts, Research Director, University Transportation Research Center 1

2 University of Vermont Transportation Research Center Founded in Fall 2006 (SAFETEA LU) One of 10 National Transportation Centers Theme: Sustainable Systems and Advanced Technologies for Northern Communities Multi-disciplinary Transportation research Picture Description / Source 2

3 Graduate Students Research Assistantships Transportation Scholars 3

4 Research Projects on Campus 25 Faculty, UTC and Graduate Student Projects Research Project Categories Carbon Reduction & Sustainable Systems Environmental Justice & Communications Travel Management & Travel Behavior Infrastructure & Transportation Financing May 12, Davis Center 4-5 Open House 4

5 VERMONT CLEAN CITIES COALITION Strategies to reduce petroleum consumption 5

6 Outline Transportation Energy Use Carbon Footprint Public Policy Solutions Vermont Focus Questions and Comments 6

7 US Petroleum Supply Source: Greene, Leiby, Patterson, Plotkin and Singh,

8 U.S. Oil Use By Sector Residential 7% Electricity 1% Industrial 23% Transportation 69% Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005 Data are for

9 Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China China Vehicle Fleet Size for Industrialized Vehicle Ownership Level Size of Vehicle Fleet (1999) India Millions 9

10 Two Trends to Watch 1) Tata Motors Ltd. of India will build a five-seat car that it will bring to market for around $2,200 (Autoblog.com, March 4, 2008). 2) Declining interest in car ownership among Japanese young (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 29, 2008). 10

11 Cost of Gasoline and Oil Today? $ $ 11

12 Vermont Gas Prices Rising Vermont Avg. Annual Gas & Diesel Prices $3.50 $3.00 Price Per Gallon $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Gas Diesel $0.50 $ Calendar Year 12

13 Vermont Gas Sales Flat Transportation Fuel Sales in Vermont Millions of Gallons Gas Diesel Biodiesel Calendar Year 13

14 Gas Sales Flat Costs Sharply Higher Total Annual Spending on Gas and Diesel $1,400 $1,200 Millions of Dollars Spent $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Total Spent $ Calendar Year 14

15 Cost of Vehicle Ownership 15

16 Transportation Funding Shortfall Table-10 Vermont s Transportation Revenue Shortfall Analysis Years Needs Revenues Shortfall (Inflation) 2% 5% 2% 5% ($ Millions) $2,670 $2,835 $2,101 $569 $ $2,948 $3,618 $2,127 $821 $1, $3,254 $4,617 $2,371 $883 $2, $3,593 $5,893 $2,647 $946 $3,246 Total $12,465 $16,963 $9,246 $3,219 $7,717 Source: VTrans LRTBP Working Paper 16 3

17 Does Price Make A Difference? 17

18 Automobile Dominance in Vermont 2000 Journey to Work Mode Split - Vermont Walked 5.7% Other 0.4% Worked at home 5.7% Public Trans 0.7% Carpooled 12.0% Drove alone 75.5% 18

19 Vermonters Driving More Source: 2006 VLTP 19

20 Driving Alone Increases Source: 2006 VLTP 20

21 US GHG Emissions by Sector Figure credit: Davies, J. and C. Facanha. 21

22 Transportation GHG Emissions Increasing 22

23 GHG Emissions by Vehicle Type 23

24 Average Gasoline Consumption for New Vehicles, United States, (miles per gallon) Cars Light Trucks Average Source: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends. 24

25 GHG Emissions in Vermont Source: DPS Utility Facts, 2006, updated August

26 Vermont Towns & Vehicle GHG Emissions Source: VPIRG from US Census 2000 Journey to Work Data 26

27 Vermont Is Aging Old Vermont Over Total Population to Source: Art Woolf, PPT Jan Source: Art Woolf: Vermont aging slides PPT, Jan

28 Obesity Epidemic and VMT 28

29 UVM Unlimited Access Bus Ridership Jan. 06 Jan. 03 Feb. 03 Mar. 03 Apr. 03 May. 03 June. 03 July. 03 Aug. 03 Sep. 03 Oct. 03 Nov. 03 Dec. 03 Jan. 04 Feb. 04 Mar. 04 Apr. 04 May. 04 June. 04 July. 04 Aug. 04 Sep. 04 Oct. 04 Nov. 04 Dec. 04 Jan. 05 Feb. 05 Mar. 05 Apr. 05 May. 05 June. 05 July. 05 Aug. 05 Sep. 05 Oct. 05 Nov. 05 Dec. 05 Jan. 03 Aug. 04 Aug. 05 Sep. 05 Oct Unlimited Access Agreement Begins -Information Packets Circulated on Campus and in Dorms -Letters Sent Home to First-Year Students -Information Advertised in Orientation Packets -Unlimited Access Advertisement in Campus Directory -Postcard with Info Sent to Faculty/ Staff Through CATMA 29

30 UVM Seniors Use Transit Less Percentage of Undergraduate Riders by Status (Fall 2005) Senior, 358, 12% Junior, 375, 13% Freshmen, 1459, 51% Sophomore, 681, 24% 30

31 A Public Policy Solution Framework Increase Vehicle Efficiency CAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.) Low Carbon Fuels California, Europe Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT) Public transit, TOD, TDM, 31

32 Driving Behavior Increases Efficiency 32

33 Can Consumer Awareness Influence Driving Behavior? 33

34 Electric Cars 34

35 Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles 35

36 36

37 walkscore.com 37

38 A Public Policy Solution Framework Increase Vehicle Efficiency CAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.) Low Carbon Fuels California, Europe Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT) Public transit, TOD, TDM, 38

39 Governor s Commission on Climate Change 39

40 Vermont Government Approach The miles traveled aren t the problem; the way we traverse them is. As gas prices climb, many are taking a second look at fuel efficient cars and trucks and alternatives to single occupancy trips. That s why I propose Go Vermont, a threepronged approach that provides cost-effective transportation alternatives, promotes the development and availability of cleaner burning biofuels and pushes for increased vehicle emissions standards. -- Gov. Douglas State of the State, Jan

41 Vermont Transportation Strategies Policies to reduce emissions from transportation fall into three categories: 1. improving vehicle fuel efficiency, 2. reducing the carbon intensity of fuels, and 3. reducing activity rates, either absolutely or relative to the baseline. -- Vermont Climate Change Plan, Dec

42 Vermont Climate Action Plan Policies 42

43 Reduce CO2 Reduce CO2/VMT (A1) Reduce VMT (A2) Passenger Vehicles (A11) Freight (A12) Land Use (A21) Transportation Alternatives (A22) Fiscal Tools & Incentives (A23) Low GHG Tailpipe Standards (A111) Feebates (A112) Truck Stop Electrification (A121) Transit Oriented Development (A211) Transit Service Improvements (A221) Targeted Infrastructure Funding (A231) Tax Incentives for Efficient Vehicles (A113) Vessel Electrification (A122) Brownfield Development (A212) Light Rail Transit (A222) Road/Congestion Pricing (A232) Carbon Tax (A114) Procurement of Low GHG/ Alt Fuel Vehicles (A115) Biofuel Standards (A116) Vehicle Scrappage (A117) Driver Training (A118) Anti-Idling By-Laws (A119) Speed Reduction Programs (A1110) Traffic Signal Improvements/ ITS/Traffic flow (A1111) Retrofits and Clean Fuels for HD Trucks (A123) Transit Bus Retrofits (A124) Intermodal Freight Initiatives (A125) Locomotive Technologies (Hybrids, Fuel Cells) (A126) Locomotive Idle Reduction Technologies (A127) Pedestrian-Oriented Design (A213) Smart School Siting (A214) Permitting & Zoning Reform (A215) Smart Growth Programs (A216) Open Space Programs (A217) Bus Rapid Transit (A223) Bike Infrastructure Development (A224) Car Pooling Organizations (A225) Commuter Incentives (A233) Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance (A234) Green Mortgages (A235) Fuel Tax (A236) Cap & Trade for Automakers/Regions (A237) Renewable Portfolio Standard for Fuel Mixes (A238) Technology & Maintenance (A1112) Municipal Parking Programs (A239) Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (A1113) Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Vehicles (A1114) 43