Energy Transitions in India: A Perspective

Transcription

1 Energy Transitions in India: A Perspective Rangan Banerjee Forbes Marshall Chair Professor Department of Energy Science and Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Invited talk at IGCS premise inauguration Nov 1, 2017

2 What is an Energy transition? A particularly significant set of changes to the patterns of energy use in a society (O Connor 2010) Energy infrastructures are socio-technical systems. A system transition is a substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system (Chappin, 2011) Energiewende (Morris and Pehnt, 2012) 2

3 Why is it important? 3

4 Transport Transitions 5 th Avenue New York 15 th April 1900 March 23,

5 Decline in Coal Jobs (USA) 5

6 During the last 40 years the share of renewables in the primary energy mix in India? I) Has more than doubled from its earlier value II) Has remained almost constant III) Has decreased significantly IV) Has increased by 10% V) None of the above 6

7 Primary Energy Mix Coal Oil and Gas Renewables and Nuclear 7

8 Primary Energy Mix 8

9 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 9

10 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 10

11 Energy Transitions in the past Transition from traditional fuels to modern, commercial fuels (mainly fossil) Investment in centralized energy supply and distribution infrastructure Centralised inter- connected electricity grid Large hydro and coal based thermal power plants Focus on supply growth Public sector and government investments 11

12 Drivers for Energy Transitions Climate Change Paris commitments global move away from fossil Significant drop in prices of Solar PV and wind Reduction in prices of shale oil and natural gas Success in public procurement of LEDs rapid decline in prices Internet of Things Technology developments, Intelligent sensors, control 12

13 India s NDC #1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030 #2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund) #3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest 13

14 Tariff Bid Rs/kWh Variation in Solar Price Bids

15 LED Price ( ) EESL LED Price reduction Nov-13 Aug-14 Dec

16 Energy Storage- Learning Curve Schmidt et al, Nature Energy,

17 Challenges for the Energy Transition Electricity Sector Transition Supply mix, efficiency Transport Sector transitions moving away from oil CNG, Electric, Hydrogen, Bio-fuel, Methanol, Private to Public transport- reduce demand for travel air travel Cooking Energy LPG, Electricity, modern biomass 17

18 Transport transitions- US Source: Cherif et al, 2017 IMF Working paper 18

19 World s largest solar power plant 648 MW Million~ Rs 72 Million/ MW Area 10 km 2 Kamothi, Tamil Nadu Robotics for automatic panel cleaning Plant built in 8 months 19

20 Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW) Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) Wind % Biomass & Bagasse % Small Hydro % Waste to Energy % 504 Solar PV % Total % 111,729 *as on MNRE website: 20

21 Solar and Wind Growth Existing capacity (GW) Targets for the future (GW) China US India Japan Germany 21

22 Electricity Generation (Source: Niti Aayog Energy Plan) TWh BAU Ambitious BAU Ambitious Gas Power Stations Coal power stations Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) Fossil Fuel Based Electricity Nuclear power Hydro Power Generation Hydro and Nuclear Solar PV Solar CSP Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Distributed Solar PV Other Renewable Sources Renewable Based Electricity Electricity imports Total

23 Renewable Generation Source: Prayas Oct 2016 India s journey towards 175 GW 23

24 Coal Power plants PLF 24

25 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 25

26 California: Duck Curve 26

27 GW Indian Duck Curve (with Niti Aayog Scenario) 700 Jan Projected Load Demand 200 Projected Solar PV generation 100 Projected Solar Generation with CSP Time of day (hours) 27

28 Age Profile of Thermal Plants No. of units Capacity (MW) % (179) plants have exceeded operational plant life 55.7% (336) plants have exceeded mid plant life Plants exceeding mid life % (23783 MW) capacity has exceeded operational plant life 36.4% (59908 MW) capacity has exceeded mid plant life Plants exceeding operational life No. of units Capacity (MW) 28

29 Solar Module Imports Solar Module Exports Source: Bridge to India, India Solar Handbook,

30 PV Manufacturing in India Module Manufacturing Capacity 5286 MW (December 2016) operational out of 6800 MW installed Domestic module production in MW Low capacity utilization unable to compete 88% of domestic supply Imports (84% from China) Imports FY 3 billion US $ (180 Billion Rupees) 5.7 GW of modules (2.8% of trade deficit) Cell manufacturing capacity 1753 MW (operational 1448 MW) 30

31 Wind - Variation over the year Source: Powergrid

32 Wind Daily Variation Tamil Nadu Source: Powergrid

33 Electricity Sector Transitions Optimal operating strategy planning for grid operation Strategies for flexibility in thermal power operation Impact of higher penetration of PV, Wind on grid operations Strategies for existing power plants, infrastructure Regulation- balancing loads, new tariff policies 33

34 Distributed Energy Systems? 34

35 35

36 Power in kw Electrical Energy Balance Feed in Grid Load PV Generation-Consumption Profile for Competition Day 1, June 30th Generation Consumption Profile for the competition duration Performance: PV Supply = 281 kwh, Demand = 146 kwh Net Energy Positive, 135 kwh in 12 days Energy payback analysis% for PV = 2.4 years Demand (Wh) Supply (Wh) 36

37 MUs Rooftop Solar 2.5 Jan, 2014 Typical Load Profile vs PV Generation Axis Highest eff. 0 37

38 Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Moderate Warm & Humid Composite Hot & Dry Cold Per Unit Price ( /kwh) Microgrids PV Balance of System Battery

39 ALCC( /kwh) EPBT Alternative Storage options VRLA LFP-G NiMH(AB2) NiMH(AB5) NaS NiCd PV+Battery Technology 0 ALCC( /kwh) EPBT 39

40 Electricity Sector Issues Centralised versus decentralized DISCOM deficits and affordable electricity Equity impacts of alternative strategies Impact on GDP growth Improved forecasting Demand Response and Storage Competitive Indian Manufacturing Impact on Employment 40

41 What remains unchanged? Income Inequality, Energy and Carbon Inequality Energy as a means to an end Demand for cost effective 24/7 Energy Self Interest, Local, National Multiplicity of Actors, Decision levels Inertia in Institutions 41

42 42

43 Base year 1-SS-Z 1 2-SS-Z 2 -X 1 GDP (Billion $) GDP Growth p.a % 6.98% Per Capita Income of all Households ($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households class RH1($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households RH4 ($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households UH1($/year/person) Per Capita Income of all Households UH3 ($/year/person) GINI Coefficient

44 Acknowledgement Jani Das Ammu Susanna Jacob Tejal Kanitkar Balkrishna Surve

45 References Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), GOI, New Delhi, (last accessed on October 25, 2017) NITI Aayog, Draft Energy Policy, Government of India, ID_ pdf (last accessed on October 25, 2017) Energy Efficiency Services Limited (EESL), (A Joint Venture Company of PSUs of Ministry of Power, Govt. of India), (last accessed on October 25, 2017) Prayas Oct 2016: India s journey towards 175 GW Renewables by 2022, Ashwin Gambhir et al., Prayas Energy Group, October (last accessed on October 25, 2017) (last accessed on October 25, 2017) Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd, Gurgaon, Report on Green Energy Corridors-Transmission Plan for Envisaged Renewable Capacity, Vol 1, C/SG/RE/2012/01,July IMF Working paper, Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040 (WP/17/120), Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Aditya Pande, May 2017, (last accessed on October 26, 2017). The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates, O. Schmidt, A. Hawkes, A. Gambhir & I. Staffell, Nature Energy 2, Article number: (2017) (last accessed on October 25, 2017) (last accessed on October 25, 2017) A. S. Jacob, R. Banerjee and P. C. Ghosh, "Modelling and simulation of a PV battery grid backup system for various climatic zones of India," 2016 IEEE 43rd Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC), Portland, OR, 2016, pp