2005 Integrated Electricity Plan

Transcription

1 2005 Integrated Electricity Plan Regional Workshops Round 1 Kitimat February 22, 2005

2 Workshop Objectives To provide a forum to learn, share and express regional preferences about future energy options for the province Round 1 - February/March 2005 To obtain regional input about new sources of electricity for the future (wind, gas, hydro, etc.) Round 2 - Fall 2005 To obtain regional input about long-term portfolios of new sources Page 2

3 Workshop Agenda Introductions & Workshop Overview 30 mins Update (2004 IEP) & Overview (2005 IEP) 30 mins Review Resource Options & Attributes 45 mins Mock Exercises 45 mins Lunch (~12:00pm) 45 mins Resource Option Discussions 120 mins Break 15 mins BC Hydro s Regulatory Requirements & Planning Goals 30 mins Next Steps 30 mins Page 3

4 Overview - An IEP What is an Integrated Electricity Plan? A long-term plan that describes how BC Hydro will meet its customers demand for electricity Includes new resources/ demand side management/ transmission 20 Year Plan Re-evaluated every 2 years Meet customer electricity needs while factoring in financial, social and environmental impacts Page 4

5 Overview IEP 2005 IEP aims to involve people by: Building on what was learned from First Nations and stakeholders during the 2004 IEP process Eliciting input on values around electricity choices for BC's future Page 5

6 Overview - Definitions What is a resource option (RO)? A resource type (or option) to meet electricity needs (such as wind, hydro, thermal, solar, etc.) These are the building blocks (or ingredients) for creating portfolios What is an (energy) portfolio? A portfolio is a combination (or recipe) of resource options It identifies the size, location, and timeline for when new resource options are required What is an attribute? An attribute is a measure used to characterize and compare resource options (like cost, emissions, area) Page 6

7 Illustration - Features of a Portfolio Yr 0 Yr 10 Yr 20 Page 7

8 Overview - Process - IEP Steps 1. First Nations / Stakeholder Engagement Plan 2. Develop Planning Objectives (what is important) 3. Demand / Supply Outlook (how much electricity needed when) 4. Resource Options Report (identify and describe options) 5. Portfolio Analysis and Selection (ROs - which, when, where) 6. Create Action Plan (short term steps) 7. File Resource Expenditure and Acquisition Plan Page 8

9 Overview - Process - Roles IEP Steps RO Tech Workshop Provincial IEP Cmte Regional Workshop FNs Workshop BC Hydro 1. Engagement Plan 2. Objectives 3. Demand / Supply 4. ROR 5. Portfolio Analysis 6. Action Plan Page 9

10 Workshop 2 Portfolio Analysis Questions Overview - Process - Links Regional RO Technical First Nations Engagement Mtg Workshop 1 RO / Attributes Preferences Workshops Resource Option Characterization Workshop 1 RO / Attributes Preferences Provincial Mtg (Dec) Mtg (Feb) Mtg (Mar) Mtg (Jun) Mtg (Sep) Optional Workshop 2 Portfolio Questions Page 10

11 Overview - Regional Workshops About the Regional Workshops Workshops around the province 15 locations / 20 workshops 2 rounds of workshops (Feb & Sept) Preferences on Resource Options Input on key questions from Provincial Committee s Portfolio Analysis Page 11

12 2004 IEP Results and Highlights

13 Overview IEP First IEP in 10 years Filed with BCUC on March 31, 2004 Did not seek to establish a preferred plan Kept a series of options feasible Provided direction to pursue Power Smart, Call for Tenders on VI Investigation of Burrard, Site C options 400Gwh call for tenders Stakeholder Engagement Informed and solicited feedback on the 2004 IEP Page 13

14 2004 IEP - Feedback First Nations Input Need earlier engagement Historical grievances Remote electrification and reliability of service to First Nation Communities Impacts of transmission lines Revenue sharing Environmental impact and full cost accounting (life cycle costing) Page 14

15 2004 IEP - Feedback Stakeholder Input Consider triple bottom line in planning High value on the environment but have a higher priority for maintaining reliability, and low cost power Support independent power producers, economic development in BC Public Ownership of BC Hydro Page 15

16 2004 General Feedback from the North Low cost is important, but not at the cost of reliability and the environment Environmental goals are important but not at the cost of increased rates Mixed views on building for export Strong support for high reliability Page 16

17 2004 IEP - Next Steps For the 2005 IEP Require dialogue and learning to balance contradictory views Seeking to address feedback into 2005 process Provincial IEP Committee to work through planning process to develop a consensus for BC s preferred portfolio Page 17

18 Design of the 2005 IEP

19 2005 IEP Objectives Solicit additional input from First Nations Solicit additional input from Stakeholders Meet regulatory requirements Select a Preferred portfolio of new resources Page 19

20 2005 IEP - Engagement Principles The 2005 IEP process will seek to: Be understanding and representative of diverse views, Be transparent, honest, and open Strive for meaningful discussion and dialogue, and Emphasize two-way communication and mutual respect. Page 20

21 Feedback from Last Night s Public Information Session

22 2005 IEP - Feedback From Information Session Overview of key themes related to the IEP Reliability & low rates are both very important Support for maintaining public ownership Support for new electricity projects that would spur regional economic development New electricity projects should provide benefits for the surrounding region (maybe reflected in rates) Support for renewable sources (e.g., hydro) Support for BC Hydro requiring IPPs to meet BC Hydro s standards for environmental & social responsibility Page 22

23 Q & As Page 23

24 Overview Resource Options and Attributes for use during Mock Exercises Page 24

25 Regional Meeting #1 Resource Options to be used in the Mock Exercises

26 Agenda for Resource Options Overview Energy, Capacity and Customer Demand 2005 IEP Resource Types Mock Exercises - Attributes and Resource Options to be used Mock Exercise - Consequence Table Page 26

27 Customer Demand and Energy / Capacity Supply Demand 1/3 industry, 1/3 commercial, 1/3 residential variable needs throughout the day and seasonally DEMAND Supply Energy (annual total - GWh) Capacity (instantaneous - MW) Page 27

28 Monthly Demand and Supply Page 28

29 Energy Supply - Demand Outlook 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 Page 29 F2024 F2025 F2023 Total Supply 2004 Reference Forecast before Power Smart 2004 Reference Forecast with Power Smart F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 Firm Energy (GWh)

30 F2025 Capacity Supply - Demand Outlook 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 Page 30 F2024 Total Supply 2004 Forecast with Power Smart with Planning Reserves 2004 Forecast before Power Smart with Planning Reserves F2005 F2006 F2007 F2008 F2009 F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015 F2016 F2017 F2018 F2019 F2020 F2021 F2022 F2023 Peak Demand & Dependable Capacity Supply (MW)

31 Resource Options Power Smart demand-side management programs to encourage residential, commercial and industrial customers to use less electricity by improving the efficiency of their energy use Biomass burning wood waste residue from the forest industry or municipal solid waste as a fuel for steam generators Page 31

32 Resource Options Geothermal Energy can be created by using heat (from geothermal wells) to power a steam-powered generator Wind Energy converted into electricity using large wind-powered turbine generators Page 32

33 Resource Options Run-of-River Small Hydro Refers to hydroelectric dams and generators without significant water storage Water is diverted from a natural watercourse through a pipe, tunnel or penstock to a powerhouse Large Hydro a hydroelectric dam and generator with a reservoir Page 33

34 Resource Options Coal Coal-fired steam turbines generate electricity in large generating stations Natural Gas High-efficiency gas-fired turbines generate electricity in large generating stations Page 34

35 Resource Options Tidal Current emerging technology with good potential in BC highest velocities in Strait of Georgia and Johnston Strait Wave emerging technology with good potential in BC Page 35

36 Resource Options Distributed Generation smaller scale, located near load <50 kw can hook up to grid by BC Hydro s net metering program Examples solar photovoltaic fuel cells micro hydro, residential size wind Page 36

37 Resource Options Resource Smart upgrades that result in energy or capacity at BC Hydro s existing facilities Customer Cogeneration production of electricity and thermal energy (heat or steam) from a single fuel uses waste heat so increases efficiency Page 37

38 Resource Options Imports require system model Pumped storage uses two reservoirs water pumped from lower reservoir in off peak hours Page 38

39 New Sources of Electricity Mock Exercises Resource Options Power Smart Tidal Current Biomass Wave Geothermal Distributed Generation Wind Solar Run-of-River Small Hydro Fuel Cells Large Hydro Resource Smart Coal Customer Cogeneration Natural Gas Imports Pumped Storage Page 39

40 Summary - Resource Options for Mock Exercises Assumptions for Mock Exercise Biomass - only used woodwaste to represent this resource type, therefore no emissions. Wind - used a number of BCH identified sites in Peace Region to represent resource. Coal MW new development, so mine site included in land impact attribute Geothermal - based on 2 projects up by Whistler (Meager Creek most advanced) limited amount available (~1500 GWh) Natural Gas : non- site specific generic project 250MW. Assume average gas from 2004 IEP of $5 Can/GJ Large Hydro : based on Site C Small Hydro : bundle of 26 projects Power Smart: includes Power Smart 3 and 4 Page 40

41 Mock Exercises - Attributes 1,000 GWh resource bundles were created by resource type and their relative impacts will be measured by the following attributes: Attribute Unit of Measure Unit Energy Cost * $ / GWh # of Projects # Greenhouse Gases Tonnes of CO 2 equivalent emissions per year Local Air Emissions Tonnes of nitrous oxide emissions (NOx) per year Impacted Area Jobs Hectares (ha) of surface area impacted for land Hectares (ha) of surface area impacted for water Construction jobs - person years of employment Full-time equivalent jobs * includes an adjustment for Dependable Capacity Ratio Page 41

42 Mock Exercises - Attributes Unit Energy Cost (UEC) For resources that predominantly provide energy $/MWh Adjustment for Dependable Capacity Ratio Ratio of dependable capacity / installed capacity Adjustment for Location (transmission losses) Page 42

43 Mock Exercises - Attributes # of Projects Total number of projects that make up the 1,000 GWh bundle Advantages/Disadvantages to both large and small number of projects i.e. large number of projects match load better, and small number of projects may be lumpy additions Page 43

44 Mock Exercises - Attributes Greenhouse Gas Emissions Include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO) and methane (CH 4 ) resulting from fossil fuel combustion Tonnes of CO 2 equivalent emissions/year Local Air Emissions Include nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), and particulate matter (PM). Tonnes of NOx emissions/year Page 44

45 Mock Exercises - Attributes Impacted Area Land Difficult to determine precise environmental impacts of a resource when not site specific Gives an indication of environmental impact by totaling the surface area (in hectares) affected by the resource on land and water Includes: site area, inundated area, new penstock corridors, and auxiliary structures: new access roads new transmission lines Page 45

46 Mock Exercises - Attributes Short - term jobs Temporary construction jobs (personyears) Long - term jobs Permanent full-time equivalent employees Page 46

47 Mock Exercise - Consequence Table The impacts of the various resource options according to the attributes (for an equivalent amount of 1,000 GWh) can be summarized in the following CONSEQUENCE TABLE: Attribute Units Biomass Coal Geothermal Large Hydro Natural Gas Wind Small Hydro Power Smart Adjusted Unit Energy Cost (6%) $/MWh $68 $51 $68 $50 $68 $70 $43 $35 Number of Projects # GHG tco 2 e/yr 0 900,000 10, , Local Emissions (NO x ) t/yr 1, Inundated Land (Flooded) ha Impacted Area - Land ha , Temporary Jobs Created PersonYrs ,340 1, N/A Permanent Jobs Created Jobs Page 47

48 Mock Exercises - Supply Curve Small Hydro Annual Average Energy (GWh) Page 48

49 Mock Exercises - Supply Curve Wind $160 $140 $120 Unit Energy Cost ($/MWh) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Average Annual Energy (GWh) Page 49

50 Mock Exercises Mock Exercises Page 50

51 Mock Exercises Again, Mock Exercises are designed to Help frame and guide subsequent discussions about the resource options And ultimately serve to help generate ideas for the development of preliminary portfolios Page 51

52 Mock Exercises Go to spreadsheet to compare between resource options using the available attributes Page 52

53 Mock Exercises A few words about the exercises: These exercises are a discussion tool to help participants begin to discuss their preferences There is no right answer, as everyone s rankings and preferences will be unique People are asked to write their name on the top of the sheets as it will help facilitate the discussions The resulting discussions from these exercises will be summarized for input to the Provincial IEP Committee as they develop portfolios and included in the 2005 IEP First Nations and Stakeholder Engagement Report Page 53

54 Mock Exercises 2 exercises will be done: Direct Ranking of Resource Options Swing Weighting using the Attributes Note. People will be able to revise their ranking values during the facilitated discussions Page 54

55 Exercises - Direct Ranking STEP 1: Rank each of the Resource Options from #1 (best) to #7 (worst). No ties allowed. STEP 2: STEP 3: Check: Distribute 100 points for the #1 (best) ranked resource option Distribute a lesser amount of points for the next best ranked (#2) resource option relative to #1. Repeat for remaining resource options (#3 through #7) Do a check on the relative difference between points with other rankings (e.g. #2 versus #5, etc.) Page 55

56 Exercises - Direct Ranking Alternative Biomass Coal Geothermal Large Hydro Natural Gas Wind Small Hydro Power Smart 3 4 Rank Weight Page 56

57 Purpose: Exercises - Swing Weighting Provides an alternative means to assess resource options according to their attribute values Provides a way to gain insight into the relative importance of each attribute according to the improvements (worst to best) that can be made Swing refers to the importance of moving one attribute from its worst to best value Page 57

58 Exercises - Swing Weighting STEP 1: Rank #1 the attribute that is most important to you to change from worst to best. Repeat for #2, #3,. For Example. Page 58

59 Exercises - Swing Weighting Worst Best Rank Adjusted UEC $ 70 $ 35 3 # of Projects GHG 900, Local Emmissions (Nox) Impacted Area - Water Footprint Area - Land 4, Temporary Jobs Created 0 1,670 7 Permanent Jobs Created Page 59

60 Exercises - Swing Weighting STEP 2: Distribute 100 points to the Rank #1 attribute. Distribute whatever proportion less than 100 to the Rank #2 Attribute according to its importance relative to Rank #1 Distribute proportion for Rank #3, must be less than Rank #2 Repeat for all the attributes e.g. Page 60

61 Exercises - Swing Weighting Adjusted UEC # of Projects GHG Local Emmissions (Nox) Impacted Area - Water Footprint Area - Land Temporary Jobs Created Permanent Jobs Created Worst $ , , Best $ , Rank Weight Page 61

62 Exercises - Swing Weighting STEP 3: Check relative swing rankings to ensure consistency Page 62

63 Exercises Go to spreadsheet to fill in ranking values.(should be lunch time) Page 63

64 POST Exercises Are there other resource options the Provincial Committee should be looking at when developing the first round of portfolios? Are there other attributes the Provincial Committee should be looking at when developing the first round of portfolios? Page 64

65 Regional Workshops BC Hydro s Regulatory Requirements and Planning Goals

66 Overview - Regulatory Requirements BC Utilities Commission Scope & Responsibility Sec 45 (6.1 & 6.2) Utilities Commission Act Requires a utility to file a resource plan for review BCUC Resource Planning Guidelines (Dec 03) Outlines process and methods for utilities in developing plans, ie resource options, portfolio analysis Confirms government policy framework Embeds stakeholder engagement Clarifies that social and environmental impacts can only be considered in rates where there are foreseeable costs in the future Page 66

67 Overview - Regulatory Requirements Long Term Electricity Planning File Resource Expenditure and Acquistion Plan Stakeholder Engagement on Resource Options FN/ Stakeholder Engagement on Portfolio Selection / Analysis Resource Calls File Resource Options Report IEP / Action Plan File Revenue Requirements Application Denote a process that is filed with the BCUC for approval. Page 67

68 Overview - Regulatory Requirements What is a Resource Options Report (ROR)? Broad list of all resource types Range of expected volume and price by resource type in planning period Characterization of environmental, financial, and social attributes of resource options What is a Resource Expenditure & Acquisition Plan (REAP)? Anticipated expenditures on capital projects, resource acquisition and demand side management Categories of cost include: continuation of current programs, new projects and initiatives, future resource additions requiring near-term evaluation, and planning and portfolio management Page 68

69 Overview - Process - Engagement 2005 IEP Stakeholder Engagement Survey/ Website Regional First Nations Provincial IEP Committee Resource Options Workshops Broad Public Input Regional Information and Facilitated Sessions Input as requested Resource Options Report Selected Committee to undertake facilitated decisions analysis process Open session to provide broad review of inputs to the IEP process Survey/ Website Regional First Nations Provincial IEP Committee 2005 IEP / Action Plan Page 69

70 BC Hydro s Long Term Goals

71 BC Hydro s Purpose Reliable Power, at Low Cost, for Generations Ensure reliable electricity service (supply & delivery) for customers Ensure the benefits of historic low cost supply continue with prudent investments in infrastructure and operations Proactively manage the environmental and social footprint for future generations Page 71

72 How will this Purpose be fulfilled? 15 Long Term Goals under six categories that span the breadth of BC Hydro s business over a 20-year horizon The Goals will be pursued: Within policy and regulatory environment and, By inviting comments from British Columbians on how BC Hydro pursues and achieves them The 2005 IEP process is one avenue to explore what they mean to you and how they can be implemented Page 72

73 Goals influencing the IEP Customer Reliability of Supply Electricity self-sufficiency for domestic needs Environment No net incremental environmental impact Foster a conservation culture resulting in a reduction in electricity intensity Financial Maintain low cost position in North America Enable Western Opportunities Continue to leverage trade opportunities Page 73

74 Goals supporting the IEP Social First Nations Improve relationships built upon mutual respect that appropriately reflect the interests of First Nations Stakeholder Engagement To be the most respected company in BC Page 74

75 Next Steps.

76 Next Steps Notes from today s proceedings Additional Information Website - Presentation materials Notes from all regional sessions Provincial IEP Committee progress Funding forms Who is interested in being involved in the second round of regional input next fall? Feedback Forms Page 76