Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario

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Cornelius Chad Norman
5 years ago
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1 Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario Dr. Timur Gül, IEA COP23, Bonn, 16 November 2017

2 Context The SDGs recognise climate change, air pollution and universal energy access as central for human development, economic growth & sustainability Progress has been made, but the problems are far from solved: CO 2 emissions at the same level for three consecutive years, but energy remains the largest emitter Air pollution causes around 6 million premature deaths per year 1.1 billion people still lack access to electricity & 2.8 billion people do not have access to clean cooking Many signs of political & technology progress, but is it enough to achieve Sustainable Development Goals?

India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe) United States -30 Central and South America 270 Europe -200 Middle East Africa 485 480 135 Eurasia India 1

3 India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows Change in energy demand, (Mtoe) United States -30 Central and South America 270 Europe -200 Middle East Africa Eurasia India China 790 Japan -50 Southeast Asia 420 Old ways of understanding the world of energy are losing value as countries change roles: the Middle East is fast becoming a major energy consumer & the United States a major exporter

4 Gt CO 2 emissions growth slows Energy-related CO 2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario Coal Oil Gas Emissions growth slows as China moves away from coal and the use of low-carbon technologies, in particular solar PV and wind, rises

5 Million people Air pollution is an energy problem Change in air pollutant emissions (left) and premature deaths (right) in the New Policies Scenario, % Air pollutant emissions Premature deaths from outdoor air pollution % 1.2 Rest of world 0% -30% Southeast Asia India China -60% European Union China India Southeast Asia Rest of world European Union SO 2 NO X PM 2.5 Emissions of the main air pollutants fall in many regions, but ageing populations and urbanisation increase related health impacts

6 Electricity access makes progress in all regions, but sub-saharan Africa lags behind Population without electricity access Million people 600 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa India Other Asia Other Asia India Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030, but despite recent progress efforts in sub-saharan Africa need to redouble

7 A shift in the electricity access paradigm Population gaining access by source Other, 7% Gas 19% Coal 45% Renewables 30% Gas 9% Coal 16% Other 14% Fossil fuels 39% Renewables 61% Declining cost of renewables and innovative off-grid business models are transforming the way access is delivered, especially in rural areas

8 Gt A new strategy for energy & sustainable development 40 Global CO 2 emissions by scenario New Policies Scenario 30 Sustainable Development Scenario 20 Sustainable Development Scenario The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO 2 emissions in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access

9 Stronger policies for a more sustainable world 875 million electric vehicles The Sustainable Development Scenario in times more efficient than today 3250GW global solar PV capacity 580bcm additional gas demand Only 15% additional investment is required to 2040 to achieve the Sustainable Development Scenario, with two-thirds of energy supply investment going to electricity generation & networks

10 Gt Changing the way energy is used and produced Global CO 2 emissions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios New Policies Scenario 44% Efficiency Sustainable Development Scenario % 2% 6% 9% 2% Renewables Fuel-switching Nuclear CCS Other Energy efficiency and renewables account for 80% of the cumulative CO 2 emissions savings in the Sustainable Development Scenario

11 Addressing air pollution has a variety of angles Change in air pollutant emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario, relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 SO 2-40 Mt NO X -36 Mt PM Mt 35% 53% 45% 38% 38% 64% 1% 2% 24% Low-carbon transition Universal access Air pollution measures Air pollution control is the main contributor to reducing outdoor air pollution; achieving universal access to modern energy is important for PM 2.5 emissions

12 Conclusions The energy sector makes progress towards sustainable development goals climate change, air pollution and universal access; but more is required for their achievement The energy sector is in transition towards the use of cleaner energy, but CO 2 emissions keep rising; air pollutant emissions fall in many countries but health impacts rise Many countries, led by India, are on track for universal access by 2030; sub-saharan Africa lags behind so that 9 out of 10 people without access in 2030 are in this region Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality The Sustainable Development Scenario requires profound changes in energy production & use, but the goals are not contradicting each other

13 iea.org/weo

Climate change and the global energy transition

Climate change and the global energy transition Dave Turk Acting Director Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks Global emissions stagnate, but there are regional variations Change in annual