Operational Implications: What do we Know and Understand?

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1 VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Operational Implications: What do we Know and Understand? Jamal Saghir Director Energy, Transport, Water Chair, Water Sector Board Feb 28, 2007

2 Outline Key Challenges and Key Signals Climate Change, Water and Economy in Developing Countries Adaptation Strategies - What Needs to be Done

3 Water has many dimensions It affects every aspect of life and is affected by it Water flows through all the topics addressed at water week

4 Water for: Rural Cities Irrigation

5 Water for: Energy Transport

6 Water for: Biodiversity Livelihood

7 Population Growth 9 Population, billions World Urban Rural Source: UN Population Data

8 Climate stress and hydrologic variability Source: UNESCO, 1999

9 % change in runoff by 2050 Many of the major food-bowls of the world are projected to become significantly drier Globally there will be more precipitation Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America, northern Brazil, west and south Africa)

10 Water resources infrastructure More storage More irrigation Against a backdrop of population growth and development

11 Changes in river flows Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry spells; less ground water recharge Projections for increased number of rainy days (left) and amount of rain per wet day (Right) for period based on modeling (HadRM2) Fewer rainy days But heavier rain

12 India Reuters August 11, 2006 Indian floods kill 350, leave 4m homeless in 5 Indian states

13 Europe: Changing flood frequency Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change Over much of Europe one in a hundred year floods will occur every couple of decades

14

15 Threats to coastal Water Supply systems Sea level rise increased salt water intrusion Increased demand leading to depletion Pressures on costs and tariffs

16 Globally: Accelerated glacial and snow melt will change patterns in Water supply Areas dominated by snow & glacial melt

17 Mountain water systems

18 South America: Yanamarey Glacier, Peru

19 Africa: Persistent droughts Reuters, Feb. 20, 2006 Approximately 11 million people are threatened by starvation in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania Rain is unlikely before April

20 Kenya: variability and growth rainfall variability, Ag GDP and GDP 60 rainfall variability Ag GDP GDP

21 Ethiopia: Water and GDP percentage rainfall variation around the mean GDP growth -25 Ag GDP growth growth projections: 38% decline in avg. GDP growth 25% increase in poverty

22 Water and climate change what are we seeing Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will be adversely affected Agricultural productivity is projected to decrease Crop yields projected to decline Melting glaciers cold increase flood risk and reduce water supplies Rising sea levels will increase coastal flooding and impact water supplies Water availability for services, energy, and environmental uses is projected to decrease Warming will exacerbate loss of biodiversity, increase water pollution, and degradation of watersheds

23 Emerging adaptation strategies: what we see Climate is variable and changing Mitigation is beyond the scope of the water sector Adaptation can be carried out within the water sector, but not alone Major change in the way we do business is required

24 What needs to be done Cannot plan based on the past Re-consider water allocation priorities Demand for water in currently irrigated water will increase Should cropping systems change? How it will adapt? An integrated approach is essential Technology transfer

25 What needs to be done Develop typologies of developing country cases Establish planning and screening methods Increase resilience in the irrigated agricultural sector

26 Concluding remarks Challenges of climate change and hydrologic variability are real and must be addressed Impact on water services and water management is significant with serious implications on economies and poverty Adaptation to variability and climate change must become an integral part of water resources management and water services delivery We are committed to work closely with our colleagues and partners to address adaptation in the water sector

27 Thank You!

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