the outlook for energy:

Transcription

1 the outlook for energy: a view to 23 Todd Onderdonk 29 STI/SPFA Fall Conference September 24, 29 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

2 evolving energy sources percent of total 1 8 Other Nuclear Gas Oil Hydro Coal Biomass 1

3 the outlook for energy 1 countries 15 demand sectors 2 fuel types 2

4 global economics and energy 3

5 energy demand vs. income energy demand vs. income BOE per Capita 5 North America 4 North America 3 Europe Europe Asia Pacific Asia Pacific GDP per Capita (Thousand 25$) 4

6 global transportation global transportation by sector Industrial Res/ Comm global transportation by fuel % Transportation Power Generation : ~31 5 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Hydro Geo Wind Solar Biofuels

7 global transportation global transportation by sector % Rail.7% 23 - LDV fuel demand by region 5 4 Marine Aviation 2.5% 1.9% Rest of World United States Heavy Duty Light-Duty Vehicles 2.%.3% 1.9 China 2. European Union

8 U.S. new light-duty vehicles U.S. new light-duty vehicle MPG MPG 4 CAFE EISA* 3 On Road EISA* *EISA Energy Independence and Security Act 7

9 light-duty vehicles total fleet size millions of vehicles new vehicle mpg miles / gallon 3 25 U.S. EU 5 4 EU China 2 U.S China

10 light-duty-vehicle fuel demand United States European Union China 1 Biofuels

11 global commercial transportation global commercial transportation by sector % Rail.7% Marine Aviation 2.5% 1.9% Commercial commercial transportation v. GDP Heavy-Duty 2.% Light-Duty Vehicles.3% GDP (Trillion 25$) 1

12 transportation by sector United States % Rail European Union % China % Marine Aviation 1 Heavy-Duty Light-Duty Vehicles

13 global power generation global power generation by sector Industrial Res/ Comm global power generation by fuel % Transportation Power Generation : ~31 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Hydro Geo Wind Solar Biofuels 12

14 global power generation global electricity use electricity demand v. GDP K Terawatt hours global power generation fuel demand by region 2.2 United States Rest of World European Union China GDP (Trillion 25$) 23: ~124 13

15 United States power generation cost United States power generation cost U.S. baseload, startup cents/ kwhr 15 $6/metric ton CO Coal Gas Nuclear Wind 14

16 power generation by region United States % European Union % China % 2 Wind & Solar Biomass 2 Hydro & Geo 2 Nuclear 1 5% 3% Coal Gas Oil

17 growing global energy demand by sector global energy demand by sector % 1.6% 1 1.% 1.4% % Transportation Powergen Industrial Res/Comm 16

18 growing global energy demand growing global energy demand by fuel % % 6.6%.3% 2.3% Oil Coal Gas Biomass/ Other Nuclear 2.2% 9.3% Hydro/ Geo Wind, Solar & Biofuels Efficiency Gain 17

19 global liquids supply and demand global liquids supply and demand % 27 EO Liquids Demand 9 ~34 ~38 6 OPEC Crude ~28 ~31 Biofuels NGL, OPEC Condensate, Other Non-OPEC Oil Sands 3 Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate

20 gas supply / demand balance North America BCFD % Europe BCFD % Asia Pacific BCFD % 9 LNG Unconventional Conventional Local Production 6 3 Pipeline

21 global energy demand & CO 2 emissions energy demand CO 2 emissions billion tonnes % % % 2 1.9% Non-OECD Non-OECD OECD.2% OECD -.4% *OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development2

22 CO 2 outlook by region United States billion tonnes % European Union billion tonnes % China billion tonnes % IEA Ref. Case 6 IEA Ref. Case 6 6 IEA Ref. Case

23 22 the energy imperative

24 integrated set of solutions increase efficiency Technology mitigate emissions expand supply 23

25 conclusion population and economies will expand; energy demand and CO 2 emissions will rise integrated set of solutions required increase efficiency expand supply mitigate emissions technology breakthroughs are critical meeting this demand will require a global effort 24