CHARACTERIZATION, ANALYSIS OF PROSPECTIVITY AND ASSESSMENT OF SUBSURFACE RISKS FOR EUROPEAN SHALES Jan ter Heege

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1 CHARACTERIZATION, ANALYSIS OF PROSPECTIVITY AND ASSESSMENT OF SUBSURFACE RISKS FOR EUROPEAN SHALES Jan ter Heege outcrop of Posidonia Shale analogue at Whitby, UK

2 CONTENT Brief review of current status shale gas E&P in Europe An approache for analysis of prospectivity European shales Subsurface risks: European focal points

3 MANY EUROPEAN SHALE BASINS THAT ARE UNDEREXPLORED (EXCEPT FOR POLAND) JPT Shale Gas Europe map

4 CURRENTLY FEW COUNTRIES HAVE SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF SHALE GAS ACTIVITY Low level of activity: Permits have been issued or exploration wells have been drilled in the past. Medium level of activity: Permits have been granted and wells drilled. Future activities are expected High level of activity: Permits have been granted and wells drilled. Future activities will occur.

5 RECENT SHALE GAS E&P ACTIVITIES IN EUROPE CONCENTRATED IN POLAND AND UNITED KINGDOM UK: 4 WELLS, SUPPORTIVE GOVERNMENT PLANS FOR (FRACCED) WELLS IN NEXT 5Y NL: NO COMMERCIAL SHALE GAS IN NEXT YEARS. POSSIBLE FURTHER RESEARCH. FR: BAN ON HYDRAULIC FRACTURING SHALE GAS DK:1 EXPLORATION WELL ABANDONED FEB 2015 PL: OVER 60 WELLS DRILLED, NOW MOSTLY NOC S, DIFFICULT SHALE DE: NO ACTIVITY, NEW LAW ON FRACKING ES: REGIONAL OPPOSITION, SEVERAL EXPLORATION PERMITS

6 LIMITED E&P ACTIVITIES IN EUROPE LARGELY DUE TO LACK OF SOCIAL LICENSE TO OPERATE Public concerns regarding groundwater and surface pollution due to fracking chemicals Public concerns regarding climate footprints Domestic energy supply (import/export conventional gas) Unsure shale prospectivity due to lack of wells & production Ongoing activities in Poland, new licenses in UK

7 ANALYSIS OF SHALE PROSPECTIVITY MAINLY FROM COMPARISON PROPERTIES US SHALES Jurassic Posidonia Formation, the Netherlands

8 EXAMPLE OF SHALE PROSPECTIVITY ANALYSIS USING KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS R 0 -vitrinite reflectance SC-storage capacity BI- brittleness index Ter Heege et al. 2015, J. Natural Gas Sci. Eng. 27

9 COMPARISON OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS BETWEEN POSIDONIA AND US SHALES Limited potential for gas generation (oil to early gas maturity) Reasonable storage capacity for free and sorbed gas (available pore space) Poor potential for efficient flow stimulation (low brittleness: shale creep and proppant embedment) Ter Heege et al. 2015, J. Natural Gas Sci. Eng. 27

10 COMPARISON OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS BETWEEN US AND EUROPE Main US concerns (c.f. EDF, Shale Gas Exchange 2015): General safety: Traffic & transport around well site Methane emissions Drilling, completion, operation or abandonment of wells Surface spills and leaks Produced water disposal Changing landscape (wildlife, biotopes) Availability water resources Induced seismicity: Hydraulic fracturing & waste water injection

11 DIFFERENT GEOPOLITICAL SETTINGS WITH VARYING REGULATIONS IN EUROPEAN MEMBER STATES Main US concerns (c.f. EDF, Shale Gas Exchange 2015): General safety: Traffic & transport around well site Methane emissions Drilling, completion, operation or abandonment of wells Surface spills and leaks Produced water disposal Changing landscape (wildlife, biotopes) Availability water resources Induced seismicity: Hydraulic fracturing & waste water injection

12 REGULATIONS REGARDING WELL COMPLETIONS AND ZONAL ISOLATION ARE FOCAL POINTS IN EUROPE Main US concerns (c.f. EDF, Shale Gas Exchange 2015): General safety: Traffic & transport around well site Methane emissions Drilling, completion, operation or abandonment of wells Surface spills and leaks Produced water disposal Changing landscape (wildlife, biotopes) Availability water resources Induced seismicity: Hydraulic fracturing & waste water injection

13 LACK OF BASELINE DATA AND COMPARISON WITH CONVENTIONAL GAS ARE FOCAL POINTS IN EUROPE Main US concerns (c.f. EDF, Shale Gas Exchange 2015): General safety: Traffic & transport around well site Methane emissions Drilling, completion, operation or abandonment of wells Surface spills and leaks Produced water disposal Changing landscape (wildlife, biotopes) Availability water resources Induced seismicity: Hydraulic fracturing & waste water

14 INDUCED SEISMICITY, NATURAL SEISMICITY BASELINES & GROUND MOTIONS ARE FOCAL POINTS PGA natural seismicity, Giardini et al. 2003

15 EUROPEAN RESEARCH PROJECTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT & RESOURCE ESTIMATES European Commission Horizon 2020 program

16 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION fossils from outcrop of Posidonia Shale analogue at Whitby, UK