European Shale Gas Potential

Transcription

1 European Shale Gas Potential (from WEO2010 and Golden Age of Gas report) Chris Besson International Energy Agency October 2011 OECD/IEA 2010

2 Shale gas: a working definition Gas found in rock formations loosely classified as shale: Rich in organic matter Rich in clays Very low permeability Large areal extent Production economic only with horizontal wells and multistage hydraulic fracturing OECD/IEA 2010

3 Natural gas: recoverable unconventional resources match conventional Natural gas can enhance security of supply: global resources exceed 250 years of current production; while in each region, resources exceed 75 years of current consumption

4 Recoverable shale gas ressources of some OECD-Europe countries (tcm) Shale gas ressources are present in many countries in Europe

5 Globally, the future is increasingly unconventional bcm World natural gas production by type in the New Policies Scenario % Shale % 12% 8% Coalbed methane Tight Conventional Share of unconventional (right axis) % % Over a third of the increase in global gas production comes from unconventional sources, their combined share of production rising from 12% in 2008 to about 19% in 2035 OECD/IEA 2010

6 Production of unconventional gas becomes widespread Largest gas producers in the GAS Scenario, 2035 Russia United States China Conventional Unconventional Iran Qatar Canada Algeria Australia Saudi Arabia Turkmenistan bcm Unconventional gas supplies 40% of the 1.8 tcm increase in gas demand to 2035, making up nearly one quarter of total production

7 Factors Affecting Developments in Europe Economics USA economic gas price 6 $/Mbtu (220 $/kcm) Europe will be higher Waiting for data from pioneers (Poland) Recovery rates Demand Environment Regulations OECD/IEA 2010

8 Consumption grows most in developing economies Primary natural gas demand by region and scenario Africa India OECD Pacific Latin America Other Asia Middle East China OECD Europe E. Europe/Eurasia OECD North America bcm 2035 GAS Scenario 2035 New Policies Scenario WEO % of demand growth is in Non-OECD countries. China alone accounts for nearly 30% of the global increase, its demand rising from 110 bcm in 2010 to 635 bcm in 2035

9 bcm But Europe also has robust demand European gas imports as a share of gas demand in the GAS Scenario, % Natural gas demand 90% % 70% 60% 50% 40% Imports Imports as a share Of demand (right axis) % European Union gas demand grows by 100 bcm with imports increasing by 200 bcm the share of imports grows to more than 80% by 2035

10 Currently producing fields supply just one fifth of total production in 2035 bcm World natural gas production by source in the GAS Scenario Shale Coalbed methane Tight Conventional: fields yet to be found Conventional: fields yet to be developed Conventional: currently producing fields An increase in production equivalent to three times the current production of Russia will be required just to meet the growth in gas demand to 2035

11 Environmental concerns with unconventional gas Existing regulatory regimes are being tested Hydraulic fracturing: water use, contamination & disposal Greenhouse-gas emissions But regulatory & operational best practices can mitigate the risks Ensuring gas, water & chemicals cannot enter other formations Minimising water use Treating & disposing of water appropriately Limiting gas venting Using best practice, well-to-burner emissions from shale gas production are 3.5% higher than from conventional gas

12 Mt CO 2 -eq per bcm CO 2 emissions from shale gas Well-to-burner greenhouse-gas emissions of natural gas Incremental for shale gas: Flaring and venting Production All types of gas: Production, flaring, venting and transport Combustion 0 Average Best Worst Conventional gas Shale gas Total well-to-burner emissions from shale gas are 3.5% higher (in the best case) to 12% higher (in the worst case) than the average emissions from conventional gas

13 Gt CO 2 emissions drop, but only slightly CO 2 emissions in the GAS Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario, Increase due to: Higher energy demand Less nuclear Less renewables Reduction due to: Substitution of coal & oil by gas 34.0 New Policies Scenario GAS Scenario CO 2 emissions are just 160 Mt lower than in the New Policies Scenario in Substitution of coal & oil by gas cuts emissions by 740 Mt, but this is largely offset by other effects

14 WEO will be back on November 9 th 2011 Updated energy projections through to 2035 by fuel and sector under different scenarios, taking into account new developments. Country focus on Russia In-depth analysis of future coal market prospects Financing options for universal modern energy access Low nuclear scenario Sensitivity to deferred investment in MENA region Oil market outlook demand/supply/investment OECD/IEA 2010

15 European Shale Gas Potential (from WEO2010 and Golden Age of Gas report) Chris Besson International Energy Agency October 2011 OECD/IEA 2010