Biomass in RESolve. Energy modeling approach and draft results. Joost van Stralen (ECN)

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1 Biomass in RESolve Energy modeling approach and draft results Joost van Stralen (ECN) Workshop Biomass role in the RED 22 energy futures at 2nd AEBIOM conference June 29 th 211, Brussels 1

2 Contents Objective Biomass allocation in RESolve Draft results of Reference scenario Conclusions 2

3 Objective Assess the role of bioenergy in different sectors Biomass Electricity Heat Biofuels Chemicals Food Develop a model that allows for biomass allocation over different sectors Scenario analysis Interaction with PRIMES 3

4 Mtoe Mtoe TWh NREAP figures 25 RES-E RES-H Biofuels Other Biodiesel EtOH/ETBE

5 Biomass allocation in RESolve-T Find the minimal additional cost allocations along the bio-energy supply chain in the EU, given projections of demand, potentials and technological progress 5

6 Biomass allocation in RESolve-T Find the minimal additional cost allocations along the bio-energy supply chain in the EU, given projections of demand, potentials and technological progress with respect to reference commodities 6

7 Biomass allocation in RESolve-T Find the minimal additional cost allocations along the bio-energy supply chain in the EU, given projections of demand, potentials and technological progress with respect to reference commodities biofuel target, bio-electricity and -heat 7

8 How does it work? Import & export 8

9 Demand - NREAPs Biofuels RES-E RES-H 1% target, part of cars EtOH Solid biomass Bioliquids Biogas Solid biomass Bioliquids Biogas 9

10 Biomass allocation: static & dynamic RESolve Biomass allocation: RESolve-T STATIC 1

11 Biomass allocation: static & dynamic RESolve Potentials Prices RES-E: RESolve-E Δ in demand Biomass allocation: RESolve-T Dynamic Potentials Prices RES-H/C: RESolve-H/C Δ in demand 11

12 Results Approach Reference scenario Biomass allocation: static (NREAP demand) EU biomass cost supply: Alterra (WP3) Import outside EU cost supply: IIASA (WP3) No MS policies, only EU policies 12

13 Feedstock input [PJ] Results Waste DRAFT Verge grass Used fats/oils Paper cardboard Other industrial wood residues Landfill Common sludges BMW Animal waste

14 Feedstock input [PJ] Results Agricultural feedstocks DRAFT Wet manure Sweet Sorghum Sunflower Sugarbeet Straw Soya Import Rapeseed Rape Import Prunings Perennials - grassy crops Palm oil import Maize Import Maize Grass land cuttings Forage Maize Dry manure Cereals Import Cereals 14

15 Feedstock input [PJ] Results Forestry feedstocks 4 35 DRAFT Sawmill by-products Saw dust Roundwood Import Primary forestry residues Post consumer wood Wood pellets import Perennials - woody crops Landscape care wood Current Roundwood production Black liquor Additional Harvestable Roundwood 15

16 Feedstock input [PJ] Results Overview feedstocks 8 7 DRAFT Waste Forestry Agricultural

17 RES-E [PJ] Results RES-E technologies 9 8 DRAFT Other Electricity only Digestion CHP Co-firing CHP

18 RES-H [PJ] Results RES-H technologies 4 35 DRAFT Heat only Green gas Digestion CHP CHP

19 Biofuels [PJ] Results Biofuels DRAFT Bio-SNG Bio-DME Bioethanol 2nd Bioethanol 1st Bio-FT-diesel Biodiesel Biofuel demand before 22 higher than NREAP nd generation needs introduction in

20 Biofuel [PJ] Results Biofuels in DRAFT Double counting for 2 nd generation Bio-FT-diesel Biodiesel Bioethanol 1st Bioethanol 2nd 2

21 Biofuel [PJ] Results Biofuels in DRAFT No double counting for 2 nd generation Bio-FT-diesel Biodiesel Bioethanol 1st Bioethanol 2nd 21

22 [PJ] Results Feedstock use domestic vs non-eu Import 7 6 DRAFT EU biomass Import *Import including biofuels 22

23 Results Domestic Feedstocks Fraction EU potential used 5% 4% DRAFT 3% 2% 1% % Unexploited: Roundwood Manure Paper cardboard Perrenials grassy crops Straw 23

24 Conclusions Preliminairy results for Reference scenario Critical look at some biomass prices needed! Large unexploited domestic potential Commercialization stage of 2 nd generation requires careful analysis Double counting of 2 nd generation biofuels has a big impact Static results. Interaction with other RES options in progress 24

25 Questions? 25

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