Energy Outlook for National Ocean Industries Association Annual Meeting April 17, 2015 Washington, D.C.

Transcription

1 Energy Outlook 215 for National Ocean Industries Association Annual Meeting Washington, D.C. by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Short-term 2

3 Oil prices rise from mid-215 through mid-216 in EIA s forecast however, the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel Historical Spot Price STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval April % NYMEX futures price confidence interval Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 215 3

4 Various events could lead to changes in global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than the forecast Event Oil demand growth surprises to the upside (economy- or price-driven) Increase Prices Key OPEC producers cut output more than expected Iraq production is significantly disrupted (ISIL? other discord?) Social unrest in oil-dependent countries leads to supply disruptions Non-OPEC production slows more than expected World economic growth is lower than projected (e.g., China) Saudi Arabia keeps production at million bbl/d in 216 Decrease Prices Reduction in unplanned production outages Iranian sanctions are lifted 4

5 U.S. gasoline demand is forecast to increase 1.6% percent in 215 reflecting a combination of factors year over year quarterly U.S. gasoline demand growth percent change 5% 4% forecast 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 215 5

6 Average household energy expenditures fall by 16% in 215, then increase somewhat in 216 (based on EIA price forecast) household energy expenditures dollars 5, $4,568 $4,534 $3,85 $4,9 $393 $417 4, $1,422 $1,464 $394 $44 Natural gas 3, $142 $14 $1,489 $1,514 Electricity 2, 1, $2,611 $2,513 $15 $1,817 $114 $2,58 Fuel oil and other fuels Transportation (gasoline and motor oil) Sources: 213 expenditures and income from BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey. The average household in the BLS survey (called a consuming unit) averages 2.5 people and 1.3 income earners. Expenditures for based on average prices from EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 215 6

7 Total U.S. crude production is forecast to decline between 2Q15 and 1Q16; output growth then resumes growth in 216, reflecting EIA s price forecast U.S. crude oil production growth by area cumulative growth compared with 4Q14 (million barrels per day).5 Alaska Federal Gulf of Mexico Lower 48 Total U.S. Production -.3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 215 7

8 North American oil production growth slows with lower oil prices but remains the main driver of global production growth world crude oil and liquid fuels production growth million barrels per day Forecast OPEC countries North America Russia and Caspian Sea Latin America North Sea Other Non-OPEC Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 215 8

9 More on Offshore 9

10 Key takeaways: importance, rig activity, production Although the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) share of the total U.S. estimated hydrocarbon resource base has declined over the past decade, GOM resources have held steady in absolute terms. In 215, the U.S. GOM is expected to provide 17% of total domestic crude oil production and 6% of total domestic natural gas production Low oil prices have resulted in an oversupplied international offshore drilling rig market, which is likely to lower development costs in GOM Day rates for offshore rigs as well as contracting activity have decreased Major offshore rig owners are beginning to stack and scrap rigs and postpone deliveries of new-build rigs Despite low oil prices, the deepwater has been and is expected to continue to be the main driver of U.S. GOM crude oil production Thirteen deepwater projects are anticipated to begin production later this year and next year Six discoveries were made in the deepwater last year; one deepwater discovery has already been announced this year 1

11 Number of contracted offshore drilling rigs in the GOM is less reactive to low oil prices Total contracted U.S. GOM offshore rigs (left hand axis) Total U.S. onshore rigs (right hand axis) Month-over-month percentage change in U.S. rigs , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, % 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% GOM semisubmersible GOM jackup GOM drillship onshore (right axis) -2% Source: Offshore Engineer, Baker Hughes 11

12 EIA expects thirteen projects to start up in U.S. deepwater GOM in the next two years: eight in 215 and five in 216 U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico field start-ups (2-216) number of fields started history projections Deepwater drilling moratorium April 3 Oct 12, Source: EIA, BSEE, industry press releases 12

13 Prior to the shale revolution, about 3% of the total U.S. resource base was in the U.S. GOM % U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas 1% U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels 3 8% 6% Other Lower 48 offshore, Lower 48 onshore, and Alaska % 2% Other Lower 48 offshore, Lower 48 onshore, and Alaska % GOM GOM Edition of the Annual Energy Outlook GOM Edition of the Annual Energy Outlook Source: EIA, past AEO editions and current thinking Note: Resources reflect estimates at the start of the year 2 years prior to the edition year of the AEO (e.g. AEO214 is 1/1/212). 13

14 U.S. GOM crude oil production was about 9% of total global offshore oil production in 213 Total global crude oil production million barrels per day U.S. GOM Other Brazil Asia Africa North Sea Source: IHS EDIN, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers 14

15 Long-term 15

16 Key results from AEO215 In most AEO215 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 23 for the first time since the 195s U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection with reductions in energy intensity resulting from improved technologies and trends driven by existing laws and regulations Renewables provide an increased share of electricity generation, reflecting rising long-term natural gas prices and the high capital costs of new coal and nuclear generation capacity 16

17 Key results from AEO215 (continued) Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which remain below the 25 level through 24 Growth of domestic crude oil and natural gas production varies significantly across regions and cases, leading to shifts in crude oil and natural gas flows between regions, requiring infrastructure adjustments The AEO215 cases generally reflect current policies, including final regulations and the sunset of tax credits under current law; consistent with this approach, EPA s proposed Clean Power Plan rules for existing fossil-fired electric generating units or the effects of relaxing current limits on crude oil exports are not considered in AEO215 17

18 Overview 18

19 Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO215 Reference case than in AEO214, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 213 dollars per barrel 16 History 213 Projections 12 AEO214 8 AEO Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case and Annual Energy Outlook 214 Reference case 19

20 Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu 12 History 213 Projections Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Natural gas Coal Nuclear Liquid biofuels 27% 8% 18% 8% 1% 27% 9% 19% 8% 1% 29% 1% 18% 8% 1% 2 Petroleum and other liquids 36% 35% 33% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 2

21 U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu History Projections Low Oil Price Reference -1-2 High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22 CO 2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 25=1 History Projections Energy use per capita Energy use per 29 dollar of GDP Carbon dioxide emissions per 29 dollar GDP Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 22

23 Petroleum and other liquid supply 23

24 AEO215 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of future crude oil price paths Brent crude oil spot price 213 dollars per barrel 25 2 History 213 Projections High Oil Price 15 Reference 1 5 High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

25 U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 22 in all AEO215 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day 2 History Reference High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price 15 1 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 197 Tight oil 5 Lower 48 offshore Other lower 48 onshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

26 Offshore oil makes a sustained contribution to increased domestic production through 24 U.S. crude oil production growth by area cumulative growth compared with 213 (million barrels per day) Tight oil Offshore (lower 48).5 Other onshore (lower 48) -.5 Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

27 Growth of onshore crude oil production varies across supply regions, affecting pipeline and midstream infrastructure needs change between 213 and 24 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region million barrels per day Dakotas/Rocky Mountains West Coast Southwest East Gulf Coast Reference Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Midcontinent 4.2 Low Oil Price Low Economic High Oil and High Oil Price Growth Gas Resource 4.1 High Economic Growth 27

28 Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 History Projections Net petroleum and other liquids imports 33% 14% 21% Natural gas plant liquids 17% 21% 1 14% 17% 29% Tight oil production 22% 5 Other crude oil production (excluding tight) 23% 25% 27% Other 14% 12% 12% Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 28

29 Net liquid imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply in most AEO215 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent 213 History Projections High Oil Price Low Oil Price Reference -2 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

30 In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Projections Other* 24% 1% 3% 4% Diesel Jet fuel Ethanol 1% 31% 13% 4% CNG/LNG 2% 31% 14% 5% 3% 3% 5 58% Motor gasoline 48% 44% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen 3

31 U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History Total petroleum product net exports High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil Price Reference Reference High Oil and Gas 213 Resource 213 Total petroleum product net exports Low Oil Price Other petroleum product exports Motor gasoline exports 4 Distillate exports Other petroleum product imports -4 Distillate imports Motor gasoline imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

32 Natural gas 32

33 Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 213 dollars per million Btu History Projections 9 High Oil Price Reference 6 Low Oil Price 3 High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

34 Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 213 Projections Shale gas and tight oil plays billion cubic feet per day 1 Other lower 48 onshore Tight gas 3 5 Coalbed methane 2 Lower 48 offshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 34

35 Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35 3 History Residential Commercial Transportation** Projections Electric power billion cubic feet per day Industrial* Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel 35

36 Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet History 213 Alaska LNG exports billion cubic feet per day 213 Projections 213 Lower 48 states LNG exports Pipeline exports to Mexico Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada -1 High Oil and Gas LNG imports Reference Low Oil Price Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

37 Electricity 37

38 Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 213 to 24 U.S. electricity use and GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) Electricity use History 213 Period Average Growth Electricity use GDP 195s s s s s Projections 4 2 Gross domestic product Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 38

39 Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% History 213 Projections % 27% Natural gas 31% % 11% 53% 13% 39% 1 Petroleum and other liquids 19% 18% 19% Nuclear 16% 1% 1% 1% 199 4% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 16% 38% Renewables Coal 18% 34% 39

40 Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 24 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours 75 History 213 Projections Conventional Hydroelectric Power Wind 15 Solar Geothermal Biomass Municipal waste/landfill gas Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 4

41 Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO215 cases U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours 1, , Wind 75 Solar Reference High Oil Price Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Low Economic Growth High Economic Growth Biomass and waste Geothermal Conventional hydroelectric power Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

42 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Today In Energy Monthly Energy Review State Energy Portal Drilling Productivity Report 42

43 Preview of coming attractions 43

44 Upcoming: improved international energy web presence New data browser to replace IES Better map-based navigations and visualizations Consolidate CABs/CANs Status: dev integration Launch: beta in April 44

45 Upcoming: EIA-93 hourly survey of electricity balancing authorities First near-real time report for EIA Dashboard view of the U.S. power grid Highly anticipated by EIA customers Status: dev largely complete; awaiting OES data to continue Launch: TBD 45

46 Upcoming: Final four reports on EIA crude oil exports Over the next two months, the final four reports will cover: 1) technical options for U.S. refineries to facilitate the processing additional light tight oil 2) implications of increasing light tight oil production for the overall U.S. refining system 3) an update to EIA s May 29, 214, report on projections of U.S. crude oil production by API gravity 4) the effects on oil prices, oil production, and oil trade if restrictions on U.S. crude oil exports were removed 46

47 Now playing: Crude by rail and EIA-914 data updates Both high priority Crude by rail due out with PSM, March 3 Updated 914 expected in June with new data collection 47

48 Now playing: New Microsoft Excel add-in for Windows Enables spreadsheet users inside and outside of EIA to pull recent EIA/FRED data into their existing workbooks 48

49 Supplemental slides 49

50 Most of the fields coming on stream in the next two years will be subsea tiebacks to nearby existing production platforms Field name Estimated Field Size (MMBoe) Peak flow rate: oil (1, bbl/d) Tieback? Estimated cost (Billions) SUBTOTAL 1, Source: EIA, industry presentations, press releases Estimated cost per barrel of oil equivalent (US$/boe) Big Bend Y Big Foot 2 8 New platform 4 2 South Deimos 75 3 Y NA NA Lucius 3 8 New platform 2 7 Motormouth 15 1 Y NA NA Silvertip Y NA NA Troubadour Y <.7 < 7-14 West Boreas 1 3 Y NA NA Dantzler Y <.7 < 7-11 Gunflint Y Marmalard 1 1 Son of Bluto Y (to a new platform) Y (to a new platform) Tahiti 2 NA 3 Y.9 NA 5

51 Projects with more infrastructure development requirements tend to require longer discovery to production timelines Field name Big Bend Majority operator Noble Energy Protraction area Block Water depth (ft) Discovery year Mississippi Canyon Anticipated production start year 698 7, Big Foot Chevron Walker Ridge 29 5, South Deimos Shell Mississippi Canyon Lucius Anadarko Keathley Canyon 86 3, , 875, 918, 919 7, Motormouth Talos Energy Inc Green Canyon 237 2, Silvertip Troubadour West Boreas Dantzler Gunflint Marmalard Son of Bluto 2 Shell, Chevron Noble Energy Shell Noble Energy Noble Energy LLOG LLOG Alaminos Canyon Mississippi Canyon Mississippi Canyon Mississippi Canyon Mississippi Canyon Mississippi Canyon Mississippi Canyon 815 9, , , , 738 6, , , 256, 3 6, , Tahiti 2 Chevron Green Canyon 596, 64 4,3 22 (Tahiti) 216 Source: EIA, industry presentations, press releases 51

52 Six discoveries in the deepwater GOM were announced in 214; one discovery has been announced this year Field Nickname Amethyst Majority Operator Stone Energy Protraction Area Mississippi Canyon Block Water Depth (ft) Discover y Year Estimated Field Size (MMBoe) 26 1, Cardona/Cardo na South Stone Energy Mississippi Canyon 29 2, Guadalupe Katmai Rydberg Tomcat Anchor Chevron, BP Noble Energy Shell Stone Energy Chevron Keathley Canyon Green Canyon Mississippi Canyon West Cameroon Green Canyon 1 4, 214 significant find 4 2, , , , significant find Source: EIA, industry presentations, press releases 52

53 Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average $3.7/million Btu in 215 and $3.45/million Btu in 216 Henry Hub spot price dollars per million Btu Historical Spot Price STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April

54 Natural gas production is expected to increase by 3.8 bcf/day in 215 and by 1.5 bcf/day in 216 U.S. natural gas production and imports billion cubic feet per day annual change billion cubic feet per day Federal Gulf of Mexico production (right axis) 216 U.S. non-gulf of Mexico production (right axis) U.S. net imports (right axis) Total marketed production (left axis) Marketed production forecast (left axis) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April

55 Industrial and power sectors drive natural gas consumption growth in the forecast Natural gas consumption billion cubic feet per day annual change billion cubic feet per day Electric power (right axis) Residential and comm. (right axis) Industrial (right axis) Other (right axis) Total consumption (left axis) Consumption forecast (left axis) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April

56 Technology and policy promotes slower growth of transportation energy demand delivered transportation sector energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Low Oil Price Projections High Economic Growth High Oil and Gas Resource 26 Reference High Oil Price 24 Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

57 Difference between U.S. natural gas and crude oil prices grows through 24 energy spot prices 213 dollars per million Btu History Projections Brent crude oil spot price 2 15 Ratio: Ratio: Oil to gas price ratio: 2.6 Henry Hub spot price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 57

58 Level of net natural gas trade, including LNG exports, depends largely on resource levels and oil prices U.S. total net natural gas imports trillion cubic feet History Projections billion cubic feet per day Low Oil Price Reference High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

59 Industrial energy use rises with growth of shale gas supply industrial sector total delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu 213 Projections 35 High Economic Growth 3 Reference 25 Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

60 Electricity prices increase with rising fuel costs and expenditures for electric transmission and distribution infrastructure average retail electricity prices 213 cents per kilowatthour 13 Projections High Oil Price 12 High Economic Growth Reference 11 1 Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Low Economic Growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 6

61 Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips consumption leading to a balance in United States energy imports and exports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections Consumption -1% 9 8 Net imports 13% 7 Production Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 215 Reference case 61