Adaptation to climate change-related disasters in the lower Mekong Delta

Transcription

1 Adaptation to climate change-related disasters in the lower Mekong Delta Kazuya Yasuhara, Ph. D, Professor Emeritus, Global Change Adaptation Science (ICAS), Ibaraki University, Japan

2 S-8 Project: Adaptation Policies on Climate Change Socioeconomic Scenario Climate Scenario Simplified evaluation methodology [Theme 1] Reliable Evaluation for Global Warming Impacts Water resource [Theme 2] Community-based Impacts Evaluation and Adaptation Policies Community-based consortium Eco system Downscaling of climate scenarios Economic analysis Synthetic evaluation model Feedback to community Agriculture Coastal disaster Feedback to developing countries Providing scientific finding to decision making for domestic & foreign policies Health [Theme 3] Indices for Evaluating Vulnerability and Adaptability in the Asia-Pacific Region Wide-ranged evaluation methodology International network in the Asia Pacific Region 2

3 Research Objective Our group in Strategic Project S-8 supported by Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carrying out: (1) assessment of disaster vulnerability in Mekong Delta under climate change and (2) investigation of effectiveness of adaptation 3

4 Disaster Vulnerability in Mekong Delta(1) Ad V V V 0 0 j j j j 4

5 Disaster Vulnerability in Mekong Delta(2) Digital camera Flying UAV at 100m above Soc Trang Province (Cooperated by Drs. Saitoh & Tamura of Ibaraki Univ., Japan) 5

6 Evaluation of Vulnerability : Effect of Land subsidence (After Murakami (2013)) 6

7 Evaluation of Vulnerability & Adaptability: Effect of SLR (a) Effect of SLR on inundation (b) Influencing population on inundation (multiplied by million) (After Nobuoka (2013)) 7

8 An Adaptive Measure Mekong River Dyke soil mixed with palm fibers 8

9 Development of Proposed Adaptive Technique to Multiple Protection (a)sand Nourishment (b)mangrove (c)gabion

10 Further Development under Planning as Joint Research UAV Acceleration Sensor 10

11 Adaptation from Stakeholders with Proposal by S-8-3 Province Disaster Resident-level Adaptation Government Level Adaptation An Jiang Soc Trang Ca Mau Inland or inland flood Inland or coastal flood Coastal storm-surge Inland or coastal flood 1) Strengthening and repair of houses 2)Heightening of houses 3) Two-storied houses 1) Strengthening and repair of houses 2) Heightening of houses 3) Two-storied houses 1) Strengthening and repair of houses 2) Heightening of houses Raised floor houses Crops highly resilient to flood Inland flood control technique Coastal management Protection of coastal areas Methodology and technique for maintaining mangroves Maintenance and control of freshwater Coastal management and protection Mangrove preservation Freshwater supply for regulating excessive use of groundwater Agriculture and fishery resilient to salt water intrusion 11 Adaptation Proposed from S-8-3 1) River dyke improvement mixed with palm fibers and cement 2) Multiple protection combined with proposed reinforcement 3) Monitoring using UAV and sensors 1) River dyke improvement mixed with palm fibers and cement 2) Multiple protection combined with proposed reinforcement 3) Monitoring using UAV and sensors 1) Upgrading of combined impact assessment 2) River dyke improvement mixed with palm fibers and cement 3) Multiple protection combined with proposed reinforcement 4) Monitoring using UAV and sensors

12 Announcement for Workshop on Adaptation to Mekong Delta Day & Venue: November 7, 2014, WRU(Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam) Venue: Water Resources University, HCMC Program: see URL Discussion Title: Do we really need more reinforced dykes at rivers and coasts? If so, how? 12

13 Summary and Conclusion (1) Vulnerable areas were specified with physical and socio-economical impacts considered. (2) Recognition of adaptation and executive situation of citizen-level adaptation were clarified through perception survey to citizens in three provinces. (3) It is suggested through numerical analysis that early adaptation can reduce population influenced by inundation. (4) Reinforcement by mixing palm fibers and cement with soils can increase stability of dykes. (5) The fund supply rule between two countries by ODA promotes adaptation with the most effective and highest performance in Vietnam. 13

14 14 Thank you for your kind attention!