Climate Change Impacts for the Central Coast and Hunter Regions

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts for the Central Coast and Hunter Regions ges/f1_risks.jpg Peter Smith 1

2 Climate change will have increasing impacts on a wide range of natural processes Even if current global emission targets are successful the climate of NSW is likely to change The rate, magnitude and significance of these changes and the impacts on human society and ecosystems will not be consistent across Australia The rate, magnitude and significance of these changes and the impacts on human society and ecosystems will not be consistent across Australia NSW covers a range of climatic conditions that are not experienced within other areas of Australia. In particular NSW is unique in having a rainfall regime that includes both winter and summer dominated and well as large areas with even rainfall distribution. 2 2

3 3 But what is actually happening?

4 4

5 How it works

6 Modeling Global Climate aa.gov/breakthroughs/climate _model/modeling_schematic. html

7 7 Global to Regional

8 The real problem for those involved in local scale issues How large are the changes? How fast will they occur? What impact will they have on human and natural systems and how will they respond? What can be done to adapt to unavoidable changes? 8

9 9 Do we see consistent changes in NSW?

10 NSW Climate Impact Profile 10

11 Global Climate Model Projections for NSW NSW Contracted UNSW to provide preliminary climate projections for 2050 UNSW evaluated Model outputs for this region and selected those that performed best for NSW The data presented is a multi model mean derived from 4 models They used the A2 SRES scenario They have not produced a PDF of possible future climates New projections in pipeline for

12 Projected Change In Seasonal Temperature Change in mean maximum temperatures Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter 12

13 13 Change in mean daily rainfall Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter

14 Spatial and temporal Variability 14 14

15 average Monthly Precipitation mean monthly precipitation Climate variability in NSW South West Riverina monthly historical rainfall varaibility compared to 2050 projections Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month Example of Seasonal Rainfall Variability for North Coast using Historical Data in Comparison to 2050 Projections Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec month s/climatechange/10171climateimpactprof.pdf Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec low 2050 high

16 Report findings Impacts on settlements Increased risk of heat stress Coastal inundation and erosion: risks to coastal infrastructure, residential and commercial development Settlements along estuaries and beaches are most vulnerable Increased flood risk Impacts on air quality (ozone and particles) 16

17 Report findings Impacts on lands Variable depending on region Increased sheet, rill and gully erosion Increased risk of wind erosion in southern areas Increased mass movement of soil on slopes Erosion of coastal dunes and river banks Sediment deposition and saltwater inundation of floodplains Improvement in acid sulphate soils in long term 17

18 Report findings Impacts on ecosystems Impacts of sea level rise, coastal erosion, fire and temperature Most at risk: coastal lowlands, estuarine habitats Impacts on migratory shorebirds Fish populations likely to decline 18

19 Climate Impacts for the Central Coast and Hunter Regions

20 Climate Projections Central Coast Temperature Virtually certain to rise. Average daily maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons by 1.5 to 3.0 C). Rainfall Likely to increase in all seasons except winter. Hunter Temperature Virtually certain to rise. Average daily temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons, with greatest increases in spring and winter (by 2.0 to 3.0 C). Rainfall Increases likely in all seasons except winter..

21 Physical Impacts

22 22 Clarke, Smith & Pitman (2011). Regional signatures of future fire weather over eastern Australia from global climate models. International Journal of Wildland Fire

23 Biophysical Impacts Central Coast Hunter

24 SCOTTS HEAD SHORELINE PLANFORM EVOLUTION AGE CE/AD MID HOLOCENE 24 Goodwin et al., in prep, 2012