JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbh

Transcription

1 JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbh Modelling Energy Storage Demand Energy Storages for Renewable Energy as Key Technology for Future Energy Systems Karl-Peter Felberbauer IEA-CERT Workshop Energy Storage Issues and Opportunities 15th February 2011, Paris

2 Modelling Energy System Austria Present Situation 2009 Discontinuos supply Angebot Supply Fossil & RES Energy Storages for hours days, weeks and months Discontinuous consumption Consumption Energy Market Present Situation Verbrauch 2009 Future Scenarios Continuous basic supply meets base & mid-consumption Future Scenarios 2 Source: JOANNEUM RESEARCH

3 Outline Conclusion Modelling Energy System Austria 100 % RES Modelling Storage Demand Research Focus 3

4 Outline Conclusion Modelling Energy System Austria 100 % RES Modelling Storage Demand Research Focus 4

5 Research Focus Energy Storages Technologies & Systems State of the art & characteristics Application systems & integration Assessment Technical Economical Environmental Modelling Storage Demand in Austria Electricity, Heat, Fuels (solid, liquid, gaseous) Present & Future situation Identification of the most interesting energy storages options for Austria Recommendations for stakeholders (industry, government & research) in Austria 6

6 Outline Conclusion Modelling Energy System Austria 100 % RES Modelling Storage Demand Research Focus 7

7 Modelling Energy System Austria I Periods Present: 2009 Future: 2025/2050 Possible scenarios More RES (e.g. Scenario 100% RES ) More energy efficiency Consumer behaviour change Smart Grids (Demand Side Management, Supply Side Management,..) 8 Results Identify most interessting energy storages options for 2025/2050

8 Modelling Energy System Austria II Useful energy demand e.g. vehicle, heat Demand of energy services Austria 2009 = 2050 Final energy: demand = supply e.g. heating oil, electricity Primary energy supply e.g. 9 oil, natural gas, hydro power, wind energy Based on Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

9 Useful Energy Demand [PJ/a] Useful Energy Demand in Scenario 2050: 100 % RES Minus ~35% 416 light, IT vehicles space heating process heating mechanical work 0 10 Energy System Austria 2009 Energy System Austria 2050

10 Modelling Energy System Austria III Useful energy demand e.g. vehicle, heat Demand of energy services Austria 2009 = 2050 Final energy: demand = supply e.g. heating oil, electricity Primary energy supply e.g. 11 oil, natural gas, hydro power, wind energy Based on Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

11 Primary Energy Demand [PJ/a] Primary Energy Supply in Scenario 2050: 100 % RES 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Minus ~50% 632 others (e.g. renewable heat) wind & pv hydro power biomass natural gas 400 oil 200 coal 0 12 Energiesystem Austria 2009 Energiesystem Austria 2050

12 Modelling Energy System Austria IV Useful energy demand e.g. vehicle, heat Demand of energy services Austria 2009 = 2050 Final energy: demand = supply e.g. heating oil, electricity Primary energy supply e.g. 13 oil, natural gas, hydro power, wind energy Based on Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

13 Final Energy Demand Scenario 2050: 100 % RES Total final energy demand 550 PJ/a (currently 1,060 PJ/a) consumerside heat 12% hydrogen 5% district heating (e.g. CHP) 10% solid biomass 16% liquid biomass 9% 14 electricity 45% gaseous biomass 3%

14 Outline Outlook Modelling Energy System Austria 100 % RES Modelling Storage Demand Research Focus 15

15 Modelling Energy Storage Demand Location of Storage supply-side storage Supply 16 Source: Fraunhofer AST consumer-side storage Consumption

16 Modelling Energy Storage Demand Useful energy demand e.g. vehicle, heat Demand of energy services Austria 2009 = 2050 Final energy: demand = supply e.g. heating oil, electricity Electricity per hour Heat per season Fuels per month Primary energy supply e.g. 17 oil, natural gas, hydro power, wind energy Based on Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

17 Load Curve Demand [MW] Load Curve - Supply [MW] Example - Electricity Summerday ,000 Demand Export 12,000 8,000 Thermal Power Plants 8,000 Storage Power Plants 4,000 Wind Power Biomass PV 4,000 Hydro Power

18 Load Curve Demand [MW] Load Curve - Supply [MW] Example - Electricity Winterday ,000 Demand Export Import 12,000 Import 8,000 Import Thermal Power Plants 8,000 4,000 Storage Power Plants Wind Power PV Biomass 4,000 Hydro Power :00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 0

19 Load Curve - Demand [MW] Load Curve - Supply [MW] 20,000 16,000 Example Scenario 2050: 100 % RES - Electricity Summerday 2050 Surplus Production Storage Needs for hours Under Production Storage Needs for hours 20,000 16,000 12,000 Demand PV Demand 12,000 8,000 8,000 Wind Power Biomass Thermal Power 4,000 Hydro Power 4,

20 Load Curve - Demand [MW] Load Curve - Supply [MW] 20,000 Example Scenario 2050: 100 % RES Electricity Winter ,000 16,000 Under Production Storage Needs for days/months 16,000 12,000 12,000 8,000 PV Demand 8,000 Demand Wind Power 4,000 Biomass Thermal Power 4,000 Hydro Power

21 Modelling Energy System Austria & Storage Demand Useful energy demand e.g. vehicle, heat Demand of energy services Austria 2009 = 2050 Final energy: demand = supply e.g. heating oil, electricity Electricity hourly resolution Heat quarterly resolution Fuels monthly resolution Primary energy supply e.g. 22 oil, natural gas, hydro power, wind energy Based on Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

22 Consumption - Space Heating [PJ] Supply Solarherat [PJ] Modelling Heat Energy Storage Demand Solarheat I Consumption Space Heating Supply Solarheat Jan-09 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Dec-09

23 Modelling Heat Energy Storage Demand Solarheat II For ½ Year Energy Storage Demand for Heat 24

24 Modelling Energy System Austria & Storage Demand Useful energy demand e.g. vehicle, heat Demand of energy services Austria 2009 = 2050 Final energy: demand = supply e.g. heating oil, electricity Electricity hourly resolution Heat quarterly resolution Fuels monthly resolution Primary energy supply e.g. 25 oil, natural gas, hydro power, wind energy Based on Lauer et al. 1995, Jungmeier et al. 2006

25 Consumption - Wood Pellets [PJ] Supply - Wood Pellets [PJ] Modelling Fuel Energy Storage Demand - Wood Pellets I Consumption Wood Pellets Supply Wood Pellets Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec 0.0

26 Modelling Fuel Energy Storage Demand - Wood Pellets II For ½ Year Energy Storage Demand for Wood Pellets 27

27 Outline Conclusion Modelling Energy System Austria 100 % RES Modelling Storage Demand Research Focus 28

28 Conclusion Consumer Side Supply Side Fuels as Energy Storage Hydrogen Renewable Methane Pumped Storage Plants Future Energy Storages? State of the Art Reduction of Energy Storage Demand Future Energy Storage Demand Energy Efficiency Demand Side Management. % RES in the System Supply Side Actions Consumer Side Actions 29

29 JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbh Thank you for your kind attention! Time for Questions! Project Partners: Funded by: