Itron s 15th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting Summary

Transcription

1 Itron s 15th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting Summary Itron s 15th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting was held in Chicago from April 26-28, Over the three days, 60 attendees representing 38 companies discussed the state of the U.S. economy, trends in energy usage, price effects, new technology impacts, and forecast model development. The meeting included two pre-conference workshops, sixteen (16) industry presentations, two (2) roundtable discussions, and previews of Itron s software products. Conference Speakers Sixteen (16) industry speakers from across North America offered technical presentations covering a range of energy forecasting topics. A summary of each presentation is listed below. Introduction and AMI Impacts, Dennis Kelter, ComEd Dennis opened the meeting by welcoming the group to Chicago, the home of ComEd. Dennis provided an update on ComEd s AMI installation project, shared the general deployment plan, and highlighted the range of benefits. The benefits include improved bill accuracy (reduced estimated bills), reduced operation cost, better energy management pricing, and reliability improvements. Economic Outlook, Steve Cochran, Moody s Analytics Steve presented an overview of the United States economy. Key economic indicators show that the U.S. economy is strong with a vibrant labor market, near full employment, the absence of any market bubbles, and low unemployment insurance claims. The economic risks are in energy producing regions, uncertainty in tax reform, and potential policy changes. The inquisitive group asked many questions creating a rich discussion on the economic factors that drive energy consumption. AEO 2017, Erin Boedecker, Energy Information Administration Erin gave two presentation. First, Erin presented the EIA s 2017 Annual Energy Outlook forecast for the residential sector. The residential forecast grows at an annual average rate of 0.05% with the Clean Power Plan (CPP) and includes major changes in photovoltaic modelling, utility energy efficiency programs, and new lighting technology characterizations. Second, Erin presented the forecast for the commercial sector. This sector s forecast update includes the 2012 CBECS survey results, new lighting and refrigeration technology characterizations, and utility energy efficiency programs. The commercial forecast grows at an annual average rate of 0.3% (with CPP).

2 Model Selection, Abdul Razack, Nevada Power Abdul discussed his model selection heuristic emphasizing the value of model cross validation. Two examples show that cross-validation provides strong predictive results against traditional evaluation statistics. Cross validation estimates test error directly and can be applied to a wide range of model selection tasks. Maintaining Perspective when Developing the Load Forecast, Reynaldo Guerra, CPS Supported by Andy Sukenik (Itron), Rey showed that monitoring incremental changes in the forecast process are useful to understanding and explaining the impact of each assumption change. Rey s steps include updating the meter read schedule, the normal weather definition, the economics forecast, the price forecast, the SAE assumptions, and energy efficiency programs. Presented as a waterfall, the results show the value of each change leading to the updated forecast. Top-Down Hourly Forecasting with Optimization Approach, Bo Xing, Salt River Project SRP currently uses an hourly forecast method to obtain annual and monthly peaks. Bo revised this method to address assumption flaws. The revision calibrates historic average load shapes to a peak forecast using day-type shapes and a proximity day index. The revision allows the peak to move across seasons and days resulting in improved accuracy. Impact of TOU Rates in Ontario, Andrew Trachsell, IESO With the implementation of smart meters, Ontario placed all retail customers on time-of-use (TOU) rates. Andrew presented the motivation for TOU rates and the load impacts from 2012, 2013, and Residential customers show a clear pattern of load shifting, but have diminishing impacts over time. General service customers show little evidence of load shifting and are less response to TOU rates than residential customers. AEP s 2016 Price Elasticity Study, Chad Burnett, AEP In 2016, AEP completed its price elasticity study. The study uses a Two Way Fixed Effects Model on pooled data for the residential, commercial, and industrial classes in AEP s 11 states and 8 operating companies. Chad discussed the method, unique characteristics of the AEP customer base, and the results. The long-run residential price elasticity is -0.14, commercial price elasticity is -0.27, and industrial price elasticity is Daily Revenue Tracking with AMI Data, Markus Leuker, DTE DTE first implemented daily variance tracking using net system output in As AMI data became available, DTE leveraged these data to improve the tracking by extending the method to track at the class level (residential, commercial, and industrial). Markus discussed the 4-year transition, the method, and challenges which result in the improved accuracy.

3 Behind the Meter Solar in Vermont, Rich Simons, Itron The Vermont solar market is driven by policy incentives leading to a high saturation of behindthe-meter (BTM) photovoltaic installations. While Rich presented different options for addressing the BTM solar generation in short-term hourly models, he focused on one method including a solar variable. Rich developed the solar variable based on saturations, cloud cover, panel efficiency, and temperatures. When included in the hourly model, the variable reduces error and improves the forecast shape. Behind the Meter Solar in San Diego, Andy Sukenik, Itron Andy followed Rich s presentation by discussing the San Diego solar market. Andy s presentation focused on long-term modelling using a BTM forecast. Andy develops the BTM data for the model, shows multiple forecasting techniques, and the weather normalization process. When comparing the forecasting techniques, similar results are obtained due to welldeveloped BTM data. Weather Trends and Climate Normals, Kristin Larson, StormGeo Kristen laid the foundation for defining of climate normal weather and how it is calculated. Multiple versions of normal are located on NOAA s website using a range of period averages. NOAA includes two specific modelled normal definitions as additional options. The modelled options are (1) the optimal normal and (2) the hinge fit normal. Theses model options offer an alternative to simple averages. Battery Energy Storage, William Marin, Itron William addressed the rapidly moving battery market with updated information on costs and market penetration. Armed with specific results from the California Self-Generation Incentive Program, William showed a range of battery utilization profiles. The results show a wide variance of impacts based on utility incentives, technology, and operations for residential and commercial customers. The results indicate the potential to load shift, but yield very little overall energy consumption changes. Energy Trends & Benchmarking Survey, Mark Quan & Mike Russo, Itron Mark and Mike showed preliminary results from Itron s 2017 benchmarking survey. Results are consistent with prior surveys except for the industrial class. EIA industrial sales data shows a 5% decline in sales. The decline is a departure from historical patterns and surveyed forecasts. However, attendees clarified that declines in the large electricity consuming industrial sectors such as mining and construction are being offset with the more efficient sector of information technology and services. The survey is still open to those who have not participated yet. Go to to include your responses SAE Update, Mike Russo & Oleg Moskatov, Itron Mike and Oleg translated Erin s (EIA) 2017 AEO forecast into preliminary data for the 2017 SAE variables. Some of the EIA changes resulted forecasts dramatically different than the 2016 data. Itron will investigate these changes and expects to release final SAE data later this summer.

4 Roundtables Itron staff led two roundtable sessions. These sessions allowed participants to explore issues and elicit feedback from all conference participants. Roundtable Discussion: Issues Facing Forecasters Eric Fox (Itron) led the discussion which identified the hot issues facing load forecasters. The topics ranged from disruptive technology concerns to business practice issues. The following is a list of identified issues. Disruptive and Distributed Generation Technologies Solar penetration, net metering impact, and load shapes Electric vehicle penetration and charging patterns Battery (energy storage) penetration and impacts Combined Heat and Power Unit adoption by customers AMI and Metering Data How to use the AMI data The potential effects of end-use metering Improving the unbilled calculation with AMI data Weather Volatility Impact on revenue forecasting Weather normalization techniques Weather normal definition impacts Energy Efficiency Accounting for energy efficiency in the forecast Energy efficiency program measurement data inconsistencies Changing codes and standards Clean Power Plan impacts Pricing Complex pricing effects TOU rate and block rate impacts DSM pricing in the rate structure changes Sector Growth Problems Explaining the decline in average use, slowing growth, and stagnation Differences in consumption between new housing versus old housing stock Slowing commercial sector growth Automation impacts in the industrial sector (e.g. motors replacing people)

5 Business Issues Communicating forecast results to upper management Selecting economic vendors (forecasts) Operating with budgetary constraints Retail choice and customer churn impacts on forecasting During the roundtable, Itron conducted an informal poll on the number of years used to calculate normal weather. The results are shown below. Please note that the responses were tallied by a quick counting of raised hands and does prevent double-counting by members of the same utility. How many years do you use to calculate normal weather? 30 Year: Year: Year: 3 10 Year: 7 Are you using a simulation approach to weather normalization?: 7 Are you are shortening the number of years in your normal calculation? Moving from 30 years to something shorter: 5 Moving from 20 years to something shorter: 3 Moving from 10 years to something shorter: 10 Do you use a 30 year normal with a growth trend?: 2 Roundtable Discussion: Economic Scenarios Steve Cochrane (Moody s) and Eric Fox (Itron) led the discussion on creating and using economic scenarios in the forecasting process. Steve initiated the conversation explaining how Moody s develops their scenarios and their uses. The dialogue centered on key economic variables used in the electric industry, the purpose of the scenarios, and the need to capture structural shifts in the economy for meaningful planning scenarios. Software Sessions, Itron Staff During this year s conference, Itron staff presented updates to all its forecasting software products with short demonstrations. The products were showcased in optional sessions and featured the SAE Model, MetrixND, Forecast Manager, Load Research, and MetrixLT.

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