Steve Williams. Professor / Director. National Adaptation Research Network Terrestrial Biodiversity. Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change

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1 Steve Williams Professor / Director National Adaptation Research Network Terrestrial Biodiversity Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change School of Marine & Tropical Biology James Cook University Townsville, Australia Stephen.williams@jcu.edu.au

2 Prioritising adaptation actions for the conservation of biodiversity Steve Williams, Lesley Hughes, Yvette Williams & Luke Shoo

3 The climate is changing

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10 All patterns and processes underlying the natural environment are changing in every ecosystem 10

11 What is happening and predicted to happen to biodiversity? Species, habitats, ecosystems moving and changing Species extinctions Changed species assemblages Changed ecosystems Changing processes Interactions with other stresses Decline in ecosystem resilience Changing fire regimes Disease dynamics Coral reefs bleaching and breaking down due to ocean acidification

12 sres.png Predicted changes in the Conservation Status of Rainforest Vertebrates (change in total population size) Increasing No change Vulnerable Endangered Crit. Endangered Extinct

13 Vulnerability of biodiversity cf other sectors IPCC 2007

14 What can we do about minimising the impacts of global climate change on biodiversity?

15 So where is the puck going to be? and what the puck can we do about it?

16 Conservation planning for climate change Adaptation Mitigation

17 MITIGATION: But no-one wants to go first. Centre for Tropical Biodiversity & Climate Change

18 Actual emissions at uppermost IPCC projection 6 plausible scenarios (trajectories) for future global CO 2 emissions, modelled from Yr Pink area is uncertainty range around trajectories. Actual emissions

19 Global sea level

20 Adaptation Can we adapt enough to prevent major impacts on biodiversity?

21 Mitigation & Limits of Adaptation No mitigation Adaptation not possible Some mitigation Adaptation very important Strong mitigation Adaptation not needed

22 Can biodiversity adapt autonomously? 1. Geographic change: - Possible for highly mobile taxa, but rate of change too rapid for most - Flat topography, fragmentation of landscape & lack of habitat presents substantial challenges 2. Phenotypic (including behavioural) plasticity: Likely to be most common response Changes in timing of life cycles likely to lead to significant changes in species interactions 3. Genetic change: Few species studied but limited evidence so far

23 Need for human-mediated adaptation Implementation of strategies that enhance the ability of species, communities or ecosystems to cope with climatic changes Aim: to maximise adaptive ability and increase resilience

24 Informed adaptation We need to carefully assess the vulnerability of species, habitats, processes and ecosystems so we can prioritise our responses What? Where? When? Why? Is there anything we can do?

25 Landscape management habitat protection restoration refugia Species management captive breeding assisted migration Adaptation Strategies Reduction of other threats and stressors to increase resilience

26 Basic biodiversity monitoring and science Understanding vulnerability Predicting Impacts Assessing Adaptation Options Implementation

27 Understanding the vulnerability of natural ecosystems For every complex problem there is a simple answer and it is usually wrong!

28 NCCARF Workshop 1: Assessing vulnerability and predicting impacts on a species is VERY complex but helps enormously in strategically prioritising research. Williams & Shoo et al PLoS Biol

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30 So we have some idea of vulnerability.what do we do next? (what, where, when and why) How do we make decisions about conservation planning and management at the right time and do things in the right places?

31 NCCARF Workshop 2: Dynamic Conservation Planning convened by Bob Pressey and Stephen Williams, Queensland

32 Decision framework for adaptation management actions: ameliorating impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Shoo et. al. In Review

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34 So.where will the rainforest biodiversity puck be in a few decades time?

35 Good Medium Bad

36 Good Medium Bad

37 Thornton Peak Species Richness Windsor Daintree Lowlands We can identify significant hotspots of future biodiversity Carbine Lamb Range Bellenden-Ker Bartle Frere Herberton Range Tully

38 Will some areas within the landscape be buffered from climatic extreme more than other areas (climatic refugia)?

39 Landscape Cool Refugia Where will they be? How big do they need to be to be effective? Which species will benefit? What factors will threaten these refugia? How do we protect, enhance and manage them?

40 Landscape Cool Refugia A map showing the maximum temperature actually experienced by an organism in any part of the region Shoo, Vanderwal & Williams. Glob Change Biol 2010

41 Mt Windsor/Lewis Thornton Peak Ravenshoe Atherton Millaa Millaa Yungaburra Malanda Mt Bartle-Frere Cairns

42 High value refugia already in protected area: Biodiversity refugia based on Degraded landscape with overlayed distributions of all potential Manage to other stressors be high value 200 value rainforest vertebrates such as weeds/ferals High refugia NOT into refugia and connection modelled area: using averaged protected other refugia: Maxent future distributions Potential for assisted 7 translocation GCMsfor at acquisition 4 deg C to of Potential Land acquisition &/or these off increase refugia Off-reserve management reserve management agreements agreements Maintain to Habitatcorridors restoration refuge Re-establish corridor for movement and gene flow

43 Adaptation decisions for managing biodiversity under climate change Shoo et al. in review

44 Vertebrate Species Richness (A2 scenario, 2080) about 3.5 deg increase Unlimited dispersal Dispersal limited subregions Potential for within-bioregion assisted migration

45 Adaptation decisions for managing biodiversity under climate change Shoo et al. in review

46 Workshop 3: Genetic translocation Convened by Prof Ary Hoffmann and Dr Carla Sgro, Victoria - Looked at assessing the benefits and risks of genetic translocations in changing environments. - Less intrusive management option than translocation of whole animals - Idea to build natural resilience in populations to climate impacts

47 Simplified decision tree for determining whether to proceed or assess risk in translocation

48 Using existing genetic variation to maximise resilience John Llewelyn Post doc Test for variation in climate related traits - Within populations - Between populations Assess potential to evolutionarily adapt to climatic change - Protect and allow population to adapt Test for variation btw. populations - Genetic translocation

49 What patterns do we expect to see? Local adaptation at the periphery held back by gene flow from the core population

50 Peripheral isolates Release from the core population may allow significant local climate adaptation in peripheral isolates

51 Impact of climate change on large contiguous vs peripheral isolate Cool refugia should be a priority for conservation Peripheral isolates are highly vulnerable

52 Genetic translocation to build climate change resilience Translocation of hot-adapted variants may prevent species extinctions

53 Together these figures demonstrate: 1. Peripheral isolates are a source of important climate adaptations 2. Peripheral isolates are highly vulnerable 3. Genetic translocation can build climate change resilience Urgent need to test for adaptive diversity: potential for genetic translocation, ability of populations to evolutionarily adapt

54 Workshop 4: Managed relocation of species Convened Stephen Garnett and Nikki Mitchell Why? Who? Where? When? Workshops outputs coming soon

55 Mitigation

56 How much difference will mitigation make? Predicted changes in the Conservation Status of Rainforest Vertebrates Strong Emmission Control B2 Medium Emmission Control A1B Weak Emmission Control A2 Extinct 0 Cr End 5 End 33 Vul 60 2% Extinct 3 Cr End 27 End 52 Vul 40 15% Extinct 8 Cr End 40 End 49 Vul 22 24%

57 Careful consideration of factors can help identify priority gaps in knowledge which can then be addressed Williams Shoo Isaac Hoffmann, 2008 PLoS Biol

58 Knowledge of impacts, relative vulnerability, and the importance of the underlying determining processes all increase our ability to make informed adaptation decisions to give biodiversity the best chance possible and hopefully make the right decisions at the right time